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Home › Blogs › LiLSpeedy's Blog › It's not about what you know but who knows you

It's not about what you know but who knows you

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FiveThirtyEightUnlike Hillary Clinton, the entire GOP field is either obscure or unpopular

Updated by Matthew Yglesias on April 13, 2015, 11:20 a.m. ET @mattyglesias matt@vox.com

 
 

Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight put together this great graphic summarizing the popularity of various key political players and how well-known they are to the general public.

But I think his spin on it is a little odd. Silver cites it as evidence that 2016 is a toss-up and characterizes it as showing that "nobody likes anybody."

But to me, this looks to me like a picture explaining that Hillary Clinton is dramatically more popular than her main rivals for the presidency:

It is certainly true that Clinton's just-barely-over-water approval ratings aren't overwhelming. But elections are zero-sum. The Clinton-Bush gap and the Clinton-Cruz gaps are both enormous. It is true that Clinton's advantages over Scott Walker and Marco Rubio are not that large, but she is dramatically better-known than either of those guys.

So what you make of this chart largely comes down to whether you think it's plausible that these obscure-but-slightly-less-popular-than-Clinton Republicans can maintain their level of popularity while becoming better-known.

I'm going to say no.

It's very likely that outside of their home state, the Rubios and Walkers of the world are better-known to people with conservative leanings than people with liberal leanings. They've already introduced themselves, in other words, to a self-selected audience that is predisposed to view them favorably. As more people hear of them and learn that they have largely mainstream conservative views similar to those of Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, they are likely to end up with approval ratings that are similar to Bush's and Christie's.

Entry #481

Comments

Avatar JAP69 -
#1
If I were a Democrat I would give Liz Warren my support.
As a Republican I would feel more comfortable with Liz Warren as a Democratic President if she won.
Avatar Lucky Loser -
#2
Wow, JAP69. Man, you're treadin' on very thin ice with those comments, buddy. To even say as a Republican that you'll feel better with supporting ANY DEMOCRAT must have cost you a few friends here at LP by now. Sorry for your loss but, I have much respect for your honesty and common sense. As such, in terms of my personal choice for supporting Republicans, I choose Rand Paul although he's already launched some cheesy ads against Hillary while she's done nothing but focus on family and the economy so far in her ads/conversations.

Rand talks a lot about reforming the criminal justice system, he's very reasonable with foreign policy in that he's against just jumping into wars that make absolutely so sense, and there are other 'tolerable' perspectives. The rest of those guys are simply fakin' the funk, in a big way, and the people know it. Still, they've gotta have something to work with. I'd like to see Bernie Sanders from the (I) side of things step up as well 'cause he's a good man. Your boy, MADDOG, pretended that he liked Bernie and even posted a fake ad with Bernie. Supposedly, he was talking to Obama about always sending our troops to war/combat and not taking care of them once they returned home.

That was so far from the truth and I politely nipped it in the bud with the CORRECT CORRESPONDING ARTICLE and who he was REALLY speaking to...REPUBLICANS. Anyhow, yes, Liz Warren on the ballot would wreak havoc for the (R)'s and they knew it. They have their hands full with just Hillary right now, the LONE SURVIVOR so far. Your boys better be careful with all their attacks on her...not a good strategy at all even though it's fair game. People want to hear positive things and your plans/strategies to make it even better, not about how bad another person is and how you can drag 'em through the mud. Republicans are notorious for this and it's already costing them. Better send your boys some emails. Tell Randy that if he can pull himself to address climate change as real, his own people may not like it but his numbers will become more favorable.

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