Comments for "Millionaire Life - Expected Value"

I have some a preliminary sales numbers for the Millionaire Life lottery being held across Canada. I also have the estimated total sales numbers and have used them to calculate the expected value.

As of February 13, just under 12 million tickets were sold. There was a surge in sales as the February 14 early bird cutoff approached. I estimate that sales up to and including February 14 will be 14 million.

The lottery jurisdictions have predicted that total sales for the month will be 18 million. I have used that number to calculate the expected value.

When buying 7 tickets for $20 ($2.86 each), the expected value is 55%.

When buying 3 tickets for $10 ($3.33 each), the expected value is 47%.

When buying 1 ticket for $5, the expected value is 32%.

Naturally, the highest expected value is for the least expensive tickets.

I also calculated which prize levels contributed the most towards the expected value. I will use the 7 tickets for $20 price point and 55% expected value to make the comparisons.

The jackpot prize of $17 million contributed an expected value of 33%.

The next largest expected value of 8% came from the 4 $1 million prizes.

The next largest was 7% from the $20 prize for matching the last 2 numbers.

The early bird prizes did not contribute a large amount at only 4%. The reason being is that the bulk of the tickets were estimated to be sold prior to the early bird deadline and the prizes are only $100,000.

Therefore it is still a good idea to buy tickets after the early bird cutoff. The expected value is still good at 51%. That is only if the 7 tickets for $20 options is exercised.

On that note, there are still shares available for Millionaire Life Group Two. The group is limited to 17 shares. With a guarantee that there will be only one winner, then one share in the group can win $1 million.

Lotto Groups - the best way to win