Probability and Intuition

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Entry #52

Comments

Avatar JAP69 -
#1
Even with tracking software deciding when a combo is playable based on hit skip probabilities is a difficult situation to call when a combo is going to fall. I also use other data to assist my judgement on when a combo may fall using intuition as my final judgement.

Looking at the most frequently drawn combo in SC since Jan 2008 in the combo report does not really give a lot to go on especially when I look at the hit skip history of the 037 combo.
in the hit skip history the 037 combo has a low skip of 0 skips and a high skip of 538 skips.

Boxed Combo Report for SC3 ASC.DMG: All 220 Combos       03-26-2013       3544 Records

                      Hit       Hit    Current Skip      Most
COMBO Hits   Avg     Median Skips    Avg       Out     
---------------------------------------------------------
0 3 7        33   107.4       65    63     104.5    538     
______________________________________
Number search of SC3 ASC.dmg: All Records      Printed: 03-26-2013
Pos.1 = 0 Pos.2 = 3 Pos.3 = 7    Any Order, All Numbers
33 Records Found          33 Selected Records Printed           Page

Record     Date          P1 P2 P3      Matched Skips
----------------------------------------------------
      23   01/12/2008   0    3    7            3      22
      51   01/28/2008   0    3    7            3      27
    113   03/01/2008   0    3    7            3      61
    130   03/10/2008   0    3    7            3      16
    142   03/17/2008   0    3    7            3      11
    146   03/19/2008   0    3    7            3       3
    189   04/11/2008   0    3    7            3      42
    685   01/03/2009   0    3    7            3      495
    837   03/26/2009   0    3    7            3      151
   1376   01/11/2010   0    3    7            3      538
   1504   03/21/2010   0    3    7            3      127
   1589   05/06/2010   0    3    7            3      84
   1664   06/15/2010   0    3    7            3      74
   1847   09/22/2010   0    3    7            3      182
   1948   11/15/2010   0    3    7            3      100
   2381   07/07/2011   0    3    7            3      432
   2400   07/18/2011   0    3    7            3      18
   2465   08/22/2011   0    3    7            3      64
   2627   11/17/2011   0    3    7            3      161
   2742   01/18/2012   0    3    7            3      114
   2743   01/18/2012   0    3    7            3       0
   2847   03/14/2012   0    3    7            3      103
   2894   04/09/2012   0    3    7            3      46
   2909   04/17/2012   0    3    7            3      14
   2911   04/18/2012   0    3    7            3       1
   3009   06/09/2012   0    3    7            3      97
   3123   08/10/2012   0    3    7            3      113
   3208   09/25/2012   0    3    7            3      84
   3259   10/22/2012   0    3    7            3      50
   3285   11/05/2012   0    3    7            3      25
   3292   11/09/2012   0    3    7            3       6
   3302   11/14/2012   0    3    7            3       9
   3481   02/19/2013   0    3    7            3      178
Avatar Tenaj -
#2
great articles - 037 probability - when you see 013 combo hit the board. you can take it to the bank.
Avatar jimmy4164 -
#3
JAP69,

Since I don't look at the dispersion of Pick-3 results, I'm not sure what you're trying to say with your report on 037 in SC. Please correct me if I'm wrong but it looks to me like [037, 073, 307, 370, 703, 730] came out in 33 draws out of 3481. Correct? I think the average expected number of hits from this set of 6 numbers would be about 21, so combos of 037 were above average winners. (Sorry if I'm misunderstanding your numbers.)

Do you feel that these 12 hits above the expected average are of some significance? If so, why?

--Jimmy4164
p.s. What do you think of the articles at innumeracy.com?


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