Powerball lottery jackpot hits $200 million

The logic behind only playing for higher jackpots is really simple. The odds are exactly the same for a $15 million jackpot as they are for a $50 million, $100 million, or $500 million (if it ever gets that high) jackpot. If you aren't going to play regularly the sensible strategy would be to make your occasional plays when the jackpot is high. Even for a regular player, the sensible choice would be to concentrate your plays on higher jackpots. If you're going to spend $100 on 100 chances at a jackpot, would you rather spend it on 100 chances at $15 to $25 million, or 100 chances at $50 to $100 million?

Regardless of the jackpot size, you CANNOT WIN if you don't play.  Would you be unhappy if you only won $15 Million?

And while the odds are the same regardkless of the jackpot, there are more tickets wagered at the higher jackpots thus diminishing your chances of holding the winning ticket.

I know I wouldn't be unhappy to win $15 million. I'd would take winning that amount in a heartbeat.

In general a wiser gambler pays close attention to the "expectation value" which is the ratio of potential reward to odds and risk.

Powerball only approaches casino odds when it reaches $200 million.   (Right now the Powerball expectation value, adjusting for the probability of multiple winners) is about 0.86.

I usually buy a ticket when it's small, for the hell of it, but I play more when the jackpots are larger.

On a few occassions both Powerball and Megamillion have exceeded expectation values of 1, but only on the largest historical jackpots. 

KY Floyd: If you aren't going to play regularly the sensible strategy would be to make your occasional plays when the jackpot is high. Even for a regular player, the sensible choice would be to concentrate your plays on higher jackpots.

I just did a thought-provoking calculation. It's based on the Pick 3, but applies to any lottery.

Your chance of winning is better if you buy 10 tickets for a single drawing than if you spend the same money buying a single ticket for each of 10 drawings. So, in terms of maximizing your money's potential, it makes more economic sense to save your money until the jackpot reaches a desired expectation value and spend it all at once.

lmatlaw: there are more tickets wagered at the higher jackpots thus diminishing your chances of holding the winning ticket.

As I think lmatlaw is saying here: this does not, however, take into account the possibility you might have to share the jackpot with someone else. As more tickets are bought, the odds of this increase. I don't know how to take this factor into account. Does anyone?

I won't play anything but blackjack or poker in a casino. I like to say I'm not a gambler. But maybe I am, just a little. Despite this analysis, I just can't imagine there being any chance to win millions and staying out of it. Just that itty-bitty chance adds so much spice to life.

Will go to at least $350 million until I hit it. I will not play again until the second prize goes up to like $2 million or whatever it is. What level does it need to get in order for that to happen? What is the record? Thought like $300 million something.

My rule for Powerball is I only play myself when it hits $100 million.  My only reason for that rule is I don't want to spend too much on the lottery.  The lottery pool I run at work plays every week, so I also participate through that.

I hope you meant to say that your chances of having the only winning ticket are diminshed. That's true, but even for jackpots at or near record levels the chance of multiple winners is fairly low. For jackpots in the 50 to 150 million range the chance is much less than the chance of a single winner. Even for the recent $275 million MM jackpot there was only 1 winning ticket despite all of the numbers being birthday numbers. Even if there had been 4 winners (I think the record for MM or PB is 3) that would have been almost $69 million each. Last time I checked, that's nearly 3 times as much as what you'd get as the only winner of a $25 million jackpot.

The only thing illogical about spending your entire ticket budget on jackpots of $100 million or more is that the most likely outcome will always be that you lose more than you win.

I don't think that is a bad idea. Sometimes I play when the jackpot is low and sometimes I play when it's high. It really depends on my budget for the week/month.