Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 9, 2009, 2:45 am

Powerball multi-state lottery game to change rules

Last post 2 months ago by mymonthlypicks. 73 comments.

Page 4 of 8 BackForwardGo to Page
Print E-mail Link
Standard Member
Regular
Marquette, MI
United States
Member #20869
August 20, 2005
216 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 13, 2008, 9:57 pm - IP Logged Bottom

There are 12 MM states, all close to the same population.  There are 31 PB jurisdictions of wildly different popualtion sizes.  What you see is exactly what you should statistically be expected.  You can't complain about an orderly universe.  Both games should get about 12-15 jackpot hits per year.

I don't see where I was complaining.  My point, which I did not make clear, is that these games are jackpot vampires (sucking all the decent sized in-state jackpots up and giving players a jackpot drought in their place).

Standard Member
Rookie
Urbandale, IA
United States
Member #8788
November 11, 2004
82 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 13, 2008, 10:06 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

I don't see where I was complaining.  My point, which I did not make clear, is that these games are jackpot vampires (sucking all the decent sized in-state jackpots up and giving players a jackpot drought in their place).

I'm not much of a mind reader.  "Jackpot vampires" is a fun term.  My experience is that people pretty quickly move to a state jackpot game of any size because it has better odds.  If I'm in a state where I can play, I certainly drop my dollar on MM (for the fickle finger of fate) and on the state game too (with better odds).  Probably not so much the fault of the multi-state games as the fault of players if they walk away from a good state game. FL has a great state game.  It will see a 30% cut (common in both PB and MM states) but the FL game is big enough that it will do fine; and PB will much more than make up the difference.  Not that it makes a big difference to FL.  Their profit will be slightly better on a multi-state game (shared costs of production, uplink, and everything else - and in PB's case, a state is paid to join the game) but it is a strong game that deserves the attention of local players. 

Standard Member
Advanced
New Jersey
United States
Member #21537
September 4, 2005
787 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 14, 2008, 11:11 am - IP Logged Bottom Top

This should save me money because I play based solely on expectation value, the jackpot divided by the odds.

I don't play when the expectation value is below a certain level, but as it rises, I play more and more.

I have a choice of whether to play Powerball and Mega since I live in a border area between states.

Because Powerball's odds were better, I tended to end up playing powerball more often.   That's likely to change now.

Standard Member
Rookie
Urbandale, IA
United States
Member #8788
November 11, 2004
82 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 14, 2008, 11:31 am - IP Logged Bottom Top

I'm not sure when MM makes its game change.

spy153's avatar - maren
Standard Member
Advanced

United States
Member #28776
December 15, 2005
1073 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 14, 2008, 12:01 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

I'm not sure when MM makes its game change.

MM is making game changes too?Unhappy

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!

Happy New Year Everyone!

(It's my favorite time of the year now.)

violet lotus (winner winner)

Standard Member
Experienced
MI
United States
Member #55299
August 31, 2007
633 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 14, 2008, 2:14 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

I don't recall reading or hearing anything about it though they seem to be doing well enough as it is now. I doubt they'd change it in response to Powerball's changes unless MM adds another good size (at least similar to MM's current average state population) state though I don't think there are many, if any left, I'd have too look since I don't know all the states are that are already involved with either game. If Florida had joined Mega Millions they probably would have changed their odds to something like 1 in well over 200,000,000.

With odds like 1 in 175,711,536 how can I lose?!

You can't predict random.

Standard Member
Rookie
Urbandale, IA
United States
Member #8788
November 11, 2004
82 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 14, 2008, 2:28 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Florida is the last U.S. Lottery state to go multi-state.  There may be some new lotteries coming, but not anytime soon.  Arkansas may be next - in 2010 or so.  A few other states flirt with lotteries from time-to-time -- WY, NV, AK, HI have all had bills proposed, but failed. 

Guru101's avatar - bling
Platinum Member
Advanced
Indiana
United States
Member #49185
January 7, 2007
1157 Posts
Online
Posted: August 14, 2008, 10:14 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

I think Powerball will reclaim the jackpot record. There's 49 million more combinations, which is a 33% increase. That's huge. Hell, 1 in 1 million is a shot in the dark; much less 1 in 195 million. It's insane. Powerball will start seeing super big jackpots a lot more often now.

Gonna win.Big Smile

Standard Member
Rookie
Urbandale, IA
United States
Member #8788
November 11, 2004
82 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 14, 2008, 10:22 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

But remember that Powerball limits its jackpot growth at the record levels - dumping the money into a Match 5 BONUS pool.  That will slow the growth to the world record; spreading the wealth instead.

Guru101's avatar - bling
Platinum Member
Advanced
Indiana
United States
Member #49185
January 7, 2007
1157 Posts
Online
Posted: August 14, 2008, 10:24 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

But remember that Powerball limits its jackpot growth at the record levels - dumping the money into a Match 5 BONUS pool.  That will slow the growth to the world record; spreading the wealth instead.

I think it will get quick tie at $390M when the matrix changes. A few months later, $415M.

Gonna win.Big Smile