Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 9, 2009, 2:45 am

Powerball multi-state lottery game to change rules

Last post 2 months ago by mymonthlypicks. 73 comments.

Page 7 of 8 BackForwardGo to Page
Print E-mail Link
RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
Standard Member
Top 25 Poster
Elite
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
9376 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 17, 2008, 2:25 pm - IP Logged Bottom

When playing games like PowerBall, you're playing two lotteries, one of 5/55 and another of 1/42.  The odds of winning the jackpot are the odds of winning both.  If you pick the same PB for each of your combinations of five then your odds of matching the PB remains the same, however if you match it you're match it more than once.

* Trying is the first step toward failure *
homer J. Simpson

Standard Member
Regular
Marquette, MI
United States
Member #20869
August 20, 2005
216 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 17, 2008, 9:32 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

chuck32 writes "Before the drawing, every set of numbers has absolutely the same chance of winning." 

Yes you are correct but in one case you can simplify the odds before the drawing and in the other case you cant!!!

Captain Lotto's avatar - CaptLotto
Standard Member
Regular
Jefferson City, MO
United States
Member #55720
September 20, 2007
67 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 18, 2008, 12:25 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

In the world of statistics, 2:4 does not equal 1:2.  Chuck hit on the answer - because each combination has the exact chances of being the winning selection.  You can't simplify the odds because the 197 million represents the potential combinations.  No matter how many tickets you buy (or combinations you hold) there is still a chance for 197 million outcomes.  Buying four tickets does not reduce the possible outcomes to 49 million. 

I know it seems logical to simplify the equation, but that is not correct when considering odds.  Each ticket has the same chance of winning, no matter how many you hold - 1 in 197 million. 

Captain Lotto

"Every day is a good day!"

Guru101's avatar - bling
Platinum Member
Advanced
Indiana
United States
Member #49185
January 7, 2007
1157 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 18, 2008, 12:48 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

In the world of statistics, 2:4 does not equal 1:2.  Chuck hit on the answer - because each combination has the exact chances of being the winning selection.  You can't simplify the odds because the 197 million represents the potential combinations.  No matter how many tickets you buy (or combinations you hold) there is still a chance for 197 million outcomes.  Buying four tickets does not reduce the possible outcomes to 49 million. 

I know it seems logical to simplify the equation, but that is not correct when considering odds.  Each ticket has the same chance of winning, no matter how many you hold - 1 in 197 million. 

Look. If I buy 2 Powerball tickets, MY odds are going to be 1 in 97.5 million. I own both tickets. I'm not making millions of combinations disappear either. There is still 195 million possible outcomes, 2 of which I have. I'm just simplifying a fraction.

Gonna win.Big Smile

Stew12's avatar - bad egg 64x64
Standard Member
Experienced
CT
United States
Member #61881
May 21, 2008
630 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 19, 2008, 1:32 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

If you were to buy all 195 million UNIQUE combinations, you would not say that you have 195 million tickets each with 1 in 195 million odds of winning (which would be true however).  You would say you have 195,000,000 / 195,000,000 (or 1 in 1) chances of winning.

The same holds true if you have 97.5 million UNIQUE tickets.  You have half of the possible combinations, so you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning.

Guru101's avatar - bling
Platinum Member
Advanced
Indiana
United States
Member #49185
January 7, 2007
1157 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 19, 2008, 1:43 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

If you were to buy all 195 million UNIQUE combinations, you would not say that you have 195 million tickets each with 1 in 195 million odds of winning (which would be true however).  You would say you have 195,000,000 / 195,000,000 (or 1 in 1) chances of winning.

The same holds true if you have 97.5 million UNIQUE tickets.  You have half of the possible combinations, so you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning.

You should assume that when discussing combinations, that the person is talking about unique combinations unless they specifically say they aren't. I don't know why people come into a thread saying "But it has to be UNIQUE!". Yes, we already know that.

Gonna win.Big Smile

RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
Standard Member
Top 25 Poster
Elite
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
9376 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 19, 2008, 2:35 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Discussions about how to express odds, how to best claim a jackpot once it's won and who should share it will alway be around as long as posters have nothing to add to an intelligent discussion about how to win a jackpot.  Such discussions don't enlighten anyone about winning a lottery which is why most people read these threads.

* Trying is the first step toward failure *
homer J. Simpson

LottoL's avatar - techno eye
Standard Member
Experienced
Texas
United States
Member #34118
February 24, 2006
373 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 20, 2008, 7:17 am - IP Logged Bottom Top

This is the fifth redesign for the best-known multi-state jackpot game since it was created in 1992. The last change was in August 2005. Changes to the current game are expected to be in place by January 2009.

Does anyone know what the exact date will be of the first drawing with the matrix change? 

Captain Lotto's avatar - CaptLotto
Standard Member
Regular
Jefferson City, MO
United States
Member #55720
September 20, 2007
67 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 20, 2008, 12:04 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

I think it still has to go through some approval process.  The release says it has a target date of "January." 

Captain Lotto

"Every day is a good day!"

tntea's avatar - Lottery 059
Standard Member
Top 25 Poster
Guru

United States
Member #5437
June 30, 2004
21790 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 7, 2008, 10:13 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

I agree it's insane, but it was at 1 in 147M.   I mean, how many times has anyone here won a pick-5 game with odds of 1 in 377k?   

Can someone please tell me what the odds of getting the 5 balls will be?  Should be around 1 in 5.1M, right?  If that's the case, the MM game in FL has a lot better odds.  It's a 4 of 44 and 1 of 22 (MB) game. 

Think PB is shooting itself in the foot.  When people can't even come close to winning the FL Lotto with odds of "only" 1 in 23M, I don't see how they can expect to win PB.  I think increasing the 5/5 prize is a good idea...but 59 numbers?  Yikes!  I just don't see this game being a big hit here in FL, but we can only wait & see.

I hope you win it...

Really, I do.

YES WE CAN