You last visited January 9, 2009, 2:45 am
|
Wisconsin couple win in lottery -- again!
Sunny SW Florida United States Member #25708 November 5, 2005 4196 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 25, 2008, 5:03 pm - IP Logged |
|
For all we know, there could be a MIT lottery team operating now. With jackpots of $50M+, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to hear it has at least been considered. When lottery jackpots are claimed by a trust, we have no idea who the winners are. There was a book written about the MIT Blackjack team. However, I doubt if anyone at MIT would create a lottery team since it's random & not a science. Blackjack isn't random. The more decks in the sleeve, the more unlikely a player can count the cards and/or predict what will come next, but it's still possible. However, let's say there are as many as 6 decks being used. 24 aces have been dealt, so you know there are no more aces left. But after a lottery drawing, all the balls are put back into play! How can anyone say determining the picks for these 2 games is similar?
One other thing everyone keeps missing is the fact that there are pre-tests. A Florida spokesperson recently commented that they have 6 pre-tests before a drawing. So how can someone base a system on past drawings without knowing the results?
|
|
|
CT United States Member #61881 May 21, 2008 630 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 25, 2008, 5:19 pm - IP Logged |
|
Adding decks to blackjack games doesn't make it any more difficult to count the cards, it just reduces the percentage you can gain over the house by knowing what is left in the deck. Mainly, because the casinos use 8 deck shoes now and re-shuffle after 6 have been played (leaving 2 decks not used). Since you have an edge (while counting cards) when the number of cards in the shoe is lessened, this hurts the maximum edge the players can gain. Besides that, in order to make any money you have to varry your bet large amounts. You play the table minimum until the count is in your favor, then raise your bet 10-15 times what it previously was. Now casinos take note of any player varrying their bet more than 8 tmies the initial amount, this tells them you are a potential card counter (if it repeats for a while). The MIT team used a number of players all working together, good plan they had there. The book is "Bringing Down the House", definitely a much better read than the movie they turned it into. Lots of interesting info in the book as well.
|
|
|
Sunny SW Florida United States Member #25708 November 5, 2005 4196 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 25, 2008, 5:48 pm - IP Logged |
|
Adding decks to blackjack games doesn't make it any more difficult to count the cards, it just reduces the percentage you can gain over the house by knowing what is left in the deck. Mainly, because the casinos use 8 deck shoes now and re-shuffle after 6 have been played (leaving 2 decks not used). Since you have an edge (while counting cards) when the number of cards in the shoe is lessened, this hurts the maximum edge the players can gain. Besides that, in order to make any money you have to varry your bet large amounts. You play the table minimum until the count is in your favor, then raise your bet 10-15 times what it previously was. Now casinos take note of any player varrying their bet more than 8 tmies the initial amount, this tells them you are a potential card counter (if it repeats for a while). The MIT team used a number of players all working together, good plan they had there. The book is "Bringing Down the House", definitely a much better read than the movie they turned it into. Lots of interesting info in the book as well. Adding decks to blackjack games doesn't make it any more difficult to count the cards, it just reduces the percentage you can gain over the house by knowing what is left in the deck.
Isn't that what counting cards is all about?
You play the table minimum until the count is in your favor, then raise your bet 10-15 times what it previously was.
Where the heck did you learn this? I think some casino managers made it up and started spreading the news around Vegas so all the tourists would lose their vacation money. It's the easiest way to go broke! What if you get 15 or 20 losing hands and you keep doubling your bet? Not likely, but definitely possible. I suppose if you had a lot of money to lose, you could eventually win it back, but don't most casinos have maximum bets?
|
|
|
United States Member #13375 March 30, 2005 1112 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 25, 2008, 5:51 pm - IP Logged |
|
"One other thing everyone keeps missing is the fact that there arepre-tests. A Florida spokesperson recently commented that they have 6pre-tests before a drawing. So how can someone base a system onpast drawings without knowing the results?
1) Not everyone lives in Florida.
2) Not everyone uses the same kind of system.
How can one predict the overall path of a hurricane without knowing the vector and temperature of every molecule? Prince of Insufficient Light ~ Ruler of Heck
"The Earth moves around the Sun." -- some 'crazy' guy, 1632
|
|
|
Sunny SW Florida United States Member #25708 November 5, 2005 4196 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 25, 2008, 5:58 pm - IP Logged |
|
@ time*treat
Meteorology is a science - not always an exact science - but it's still based on atmospheric physics. I took a course on meteorology & physics but I don't ever remember hearing about a course on playing the lottery. Maybe your college had a different curriculum.

Judging from the traffic, I thought everyone DID live in Florida! lol
Seriously, what states do not have pre-tests before a drawing? Do you know?
@Stew - my bad. I probably shouldn't have mentioned the MIT students in the first place. A review in the Boston Globe says that most of the story was fabricated, even some of the characters. MIT students who were interviewed confirm that the book was written to make money off of the "Reality Show" junkies who will believe anything if someone writes it or it's on TV.
|
|
|
United States Member #13375 March 30, 2005 1112 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 25, 2008, 6:16 pm - IP Logged |
|
Hmm, I think you have to dig state-by-state for pre-draw info. 
To that end, the Ohio lottery website links to all the other state lottery sites. 
I've done some modeling of day-day vs. day-eve systems (which, in a way, mimics pre-draws). The results say don't worry about pre-drawings. Now, if you don't believe a system can work, you'd have no interest in pre-drawings (unless you saw the number you played ... show up there. )

Prince of Insufficient Light ~ Ruler of Heck
"The Earth moves around the Sun." -- some 'crazy' guy, 1632
|
|
|
Illinois United States Member #30849 January 17, 2006 3595 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 26, 2008, 12:00 am - IP Logged |
|
Re: Card counting.
As a former casino worker I have to say some of the input here is quite entertaining.
Some things folks should know:
The casinos teach their supervisors card counting. They've even sent them to card counting schools (some become degenerate gamblers themselves, partly due to this).
So many times inside the pit you will hear conversations like, "The guy on BJ 12 thinks he's a good counter but that's as far as it goes."
Card counting is only half of it for a good counter. Sometimes they have to be disguise artists, and they also have to be able to concentrate while being distracted. Floor supervisors are told to "go get that guy in a conversation", just to brak his or her focus.
Varying bets is a giveaway, but only one of many.
Bob stupak used to invite card counters to his casino. His philosophy was that you may know the deck is rich in high or low cards, you may know that there is a King and a four left in the deck. Only God knows which one is going to be dealt first.
For the MIT people, yes, they worked in teams and were very high tech. They got it on for a while. I seriously doubt if anyhting like that will happen again. Casino surveillance has come a long, long way since the days of guys up in catwalks with binouclars.
And I'm prety sure some of these "Beat the house" programs being aired on the Travel Channel and others are silently sponsored by the casinos. Convince them they can come out and beat the house and they'll come out.
No different than people (who have never hit a lottery jackpot) selling books and systems about how to hit a lottery jackpot. It's Lotto, not horseshoes or artillery! close doesn't count! I sell everything at a loss but make up for it in volume - Milo Minderbinder, Catch-22
|
|
|
CT United States Member #61881 May 21, 2008 630 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 26, 2008, 11:22 am - IP Logged |
|
Adding decks to blackjack games doesn't make it any more difficult to count the cards, it just reduces the percentage you can gain over the house by knowing what is left in the deck.
Isn't that what counting cards is all about?
You play the table minimum until the count is in your favor, then raise your bet 10-15 times what it previously was.
Where the heck did you learn this? I think some casino managers made it up and started spreading the news around Vegas so all the tourists would lose their vacation money. It's the easiest way to go broke! What if you get 15 or 20 losing hands and you keep doubling your bet? Not likely, but definitely possible. I suppose if you had a lot of money to lose, you could eventually win it back, but don't most casinos have maximum bets? Well 'counting' cards is just keeping track of what percentage of cards in the deck are in your favor, it all depends on what you do with that info!
It takes money to make money! To win big money using card counting methods any big BlackJack player will tell you that you need to start with a decent amount of money to ride out the lows. You won't see anyone walking in with $20 to start counting cards seriously! Counting cards only gives you a few percent advantage (if done properly), the whole idea is to take as much advantage of each favorable situation as you can (big bets).
|
|
|
mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 9376 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 26, 2008, 2:13 pm - IP Logged |
|
Hmm, I think you have to dig state-by-state for pre-draw info. 
To that end, the Ohio lottery website links to all the other state lottery sites. 
I've done some modeling of day-day vs. day-eve systems (which, in a way, mimics pre-draws). The results say don't worry about pre-drawings. Now, if you don't believe a system can work, you'd have no interest in pre-drawings (unless you saw the number you played ... show up there. )

If the system was developed using only the posted results, then the pre-draw information shouldn't be a factor. * Trying is the first step toward failure *
homer J. Simpson
|
|
|
United States Member #10921 January 23, 2005 773 Posts Offline
|
| Posted: August 27, 2008, 10:52 pm - IP Logged |
|
More food for thought:
- Nothing in nature is purely random, just so complicated that it can be difficult or impossible to predict.
- Let's say you have a Powerball system that provides a 1% edge. It's not much, but it's better than QP and if you win with numbers you picked you feel more like you "earned it" and deserve more recognition. You'll have quite a few new friends even w/o even giving them actual money!
- The matrix of SuperCash did seem to change Oct. 23, 2005, because they announced a bigger jackpot and introduced the Doubler feature, and the higher numbers began appearing soon after. My question is, did this person's algorithm span across this matrix change, which would have disfavored some higher numbers, since the winning set was low numbers, that's what helped him? If he was doing this penci/paper then it's not likely he went that far back unless it was a very simple freq. analysis but that type only seems to give 3 of 6 at most.
- A thorough backtest will prove or disprove if an algorithm has merit. It can show either that it has no effect, or a slight advantage not enough to overcome the takeout, or so good that it makes profit. I have never seen the third type, but some of mine hover around breakeven.
- I still wonder if he used some kind of computer program or pencil/paper, and if any of it was partly randomized, like filtering out bad #s then QPing the good ones. Or how many he played.
- My suggestion to you if you are worried about pre-draws clouding the stats, use the History QP method. Generate a random X number the width of the drawing (6 for SuperCash) and a random Y number however far back you want to use the history. Do this enough times to get 6 or whatever unique numbers, and play those. You are thus emulating how the drawings are done and also more likely to be the only one winner.
In meantime though I will as soon as I can try to determine what was so special about that set of numbers. I'm thinking maybe hot/cold/due, but since he liked math puzzles he could have been using math instead.
|
|
|
|