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Powerball selling 100,000 tickets per minute

Topic closed. 67 replies. Last post 2 years ago by PrisonerSix.

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Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
United States
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May 31, 2000
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Posted: November 27, 2012, 9:52 pm - IP Logged

Here's a simplified version if how it works when all combinations are chosen randomly. After selling about 17.5 million tickets 10% of the combinations have been covered. That means that 10% of the next few million tickets can be expected to repeat combinations that have already been sold. After 20% of the combinations have been sold we should expect that 20% of the next few million will be duplicates. And so on. If sales are high enough that 90% of combinations have been sold  we should expect that only 10% of the next few million tickets will be unplayed combinations. When 95% are sold only 1 in 20 will use a new combination. That means that selling the last 5% of combinations would require selling 175 million tickets.

Since a lot of combinations aren't chosen randomly, it takes even more sales to cover a given percentage of the combinations. People play favorite numbers that are often calendar numbers, and they play patterns on the betslips. As a very rough guess I'd bet that a typical drawing that sells 15 million tickets uses no more than 12 or 13 million combinations.

If the jackpot gets bumped up again to 600 million it will mean that MUSL is expecting to sell about 275 million tickets. That should use about 85% of the combinations, giving us about a 1 in 6 chance of a rollover. If it does roll we can probably expect sales to use 90% or more of the combinations, but even if it jumps $500 million there will be plenty of combinations that don't get used, and a slight chance of yet another rollover.

Great explanation. Thumbs Up

 

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    weshar75's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
    Mcminnville, Oregon
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    December 13, 2003
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    Posted: November 27, 2012, 10:27 pm - IP Logged

    I am thinking that someone is going to get lucky tomorrow night on powerball.  I just hope it is me!  Good luck!-wseshar75

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      zinniagirl's avatar - flower avatar_0026.jpg
      nc
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      October 26, 2010
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      Posted: November 27, 2012, 11:03 pm - IP Logged

      Hi LP members have an idea to come up with a winning Power ball number post the last digit or two digits of your member number on your post.Every 7 post will be a number to play, My number is 30 never can tell we may come up with the winning numbers.                                                                                                                                                      Good luck to all on the Power Ball !               #30 

      First thing, welcome to Lottery Post!

      That sounds like a fun thing to do.   Although, over half of us have the last two numbers as non playable numbers.   But I do like your number!!

       

      Good luck to all.

        sully16's avatar - sharan
        Listens to the wind

        United States
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        October 28, 2009
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        Posted: November 27, 2012, 11:43 pm - IP Logged

        Thats a lot of tickets being sold, had a nice line at the gas station.

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          ashabug725's avatar - Yavill
          Indiana
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          February 9, 2012
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          Posted: November 27, 2012, 11:53 pm - IP Logged

          Thats a lot of tickets being sold, had a nice line at the gas station.

          Maybe we have too many gas stations... Or places that sell tix here, but I've never waited in a line for ppl getting any lottery tickets... Not that I'm complaining, but could be interesting!!

          I wish I may, I wish I might...
                     Win the Powerball jackpot THIS big night!!!

            Nikkicute's avatar - nnjx1k
            RIGHT HERE!!
            United States
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            February 17, 2012
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            Posted: November 28, 2012, 12:12 am - IP Logged

            Maybe we have too many gas stations... Or places that sell tix here, but I've never waited in a line for ppl getting any lottery tickets... Not that I'm complaining, but could be interesting!!

            I was about to post the samething, I've never waited in line to buy tickets.

            Those super long lines on t.v. never seen those around here.

              Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

              Bahamas
              Member #133467
              September 30, 2012
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              Posted: November 28, 2012, 12:35 am - IP Logged

              Madre de Dios!

               

              Someone won the MM Jackpot tonight.

               

              With MM back at 12m there is no real competitor out there.

               

              PB stands alone in Amercia as the Big Wig.

               

              Sales will hit Pluto!

              "Everything works  ONCE!"

                ashabug725's avatar - Yavill
                Indiana
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                Posted: November 28, 2012, 12:41 am - IP Logged

                Madre de Dios!

                 

                Someone won the MM Jackpot tonight.

                 

                With MM back at 12m there is no real competitor out there.

                 

                PB stands alone in Amercia as the Big Wig.

                 

                Sales will hit Pluto!

                Where'd u get that info? Isn't showing on mm website or usamega.... Not doubting u... Just curious!!!

                I wish I may, I wish I might...
                           Win the Powerball jackpot THIS big night!!!

                  Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

                  Bahamas
                  Member #133467
                  September 30, 2012
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                  Posted: November 28, 2012, 12:43 am - IP Logged

                  Where'd u get that info? Isn't showing on mm website or usamega.... Not doubting u... Just curious!!!

                  GA won MM tonight!

                  "Everything works  ONCE!"

                    Factorem's avatar - candle

                    United States
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                    Posted: November 28, 2012, 1:20 am - IP Logged

                    Where'd u get that info? Isn't showing on mm website or usamega.... Not doubting u... Just curious!!!

                    It is on usamega.com posted at 1:12 AM

                    "1:12 am – Mega Millions Jackpot Winner!  There was one $49 million jackpot winner from Georgia in the Tuesday, November 27, 2012 Mega Millions drawing."

                      ashabug725's avatar - Yavill
                      Indiana
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                      Posted: November 28, 2012, 1:36 am - IP Logged

                      It is on usamega.com posted at 1:12 AM

                      "1:12 am – Mega Millions Jackpot Winner!  There was one $49 million jackpot winner from Georgia in the Tuesday, November 27, 2012 Mega Millions drawing."

                      It wasn't at the time.. took about 30-40 mins later to be posted

                      I wish I may, I wish I might...
                                 Win the Powerball jackpot THIS big night!!!

                        pillsbury's avatar - panda pistols.jpg

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                        Posted: November 28, 2012, 1:53 am - IP Logged

                        It wasn't at the time.. took about 30-40 mins later to be posted

                        It was posted on the GA lottery website under the MM section with the number of winners for the drawing.

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                          New Member
                          flagstaff, Arizona
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                          October 30, 2011
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                          Posted: November 28, 2012, 2:33 am - IP Logged

                          Yes, someone from Georgia did win the $49 million Mega Jackpot!!!

                            lowerAL251's avatar - Lottery-025.jpg
                            New Member
                            Mobile, AL
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                            Posted: November 28, 2012, 3:27 am - IP Logged

                            500 mill.......<snip>!!!!!!!!!!

                            This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

                            Halle berry or hallelujahBlue Angel

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                              Burnsville, MN
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                              Posted: November 28, 2012, 4:25 am - IP Logged

                              Madre de Dios!

                               

                              Someone won the MM Jackpot tonight.

                               

                              With MM back at 12m there is no real competitor out there.

                               

                              PB stands alone in Amercia as the Big Wig.

                               

                              Sales will hit Pluto!

                              Even if nobody won MM, it'd only be around 60-70M for Friday's drawing. Does anybody honestly think that a 60-70M jackpot would be serious "competition" to Powerball's sales? Pretty sure it would have had very minimal, if any, impact on Powerball's sales.  Sadly, I flew from Minneapolis to Los Angeles Monday morning for a week long vacation, and they don't sell Powerball tickets here in CA :(

                               

                              Good thing I bought a 2-draw advance play ticket on Sunday night before I left the state :) I'll be celebrating plenty out here when I win! Perhaps my vacation will take a Vegas detour should that happen ;)

                               

                              Best of luck to everybody!