$550 MILLION: Powerball buying frenzy sparks another jackpot increase

Nov 28, 2012, 12:32 pm (169 comments)

Powerball

Powerball fever sweeping the nation

UPDATE: Will roll to $900 million if nobody wins tonight

By Todd Northrop

As if $425 million or $500 million isn't enough, the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL) announced today that tonight's Powerball jackpot has been increased again — to $550 Million.

Lottery Post reported yesterday that Powerball tickets have been selling nationally at a pace of more than 100,000 tickets per minute (see Powerball selling 100,000 tickets per minute, Lottery Post, Nov. 27, 2012).

This continuous, massive stream of ticket buying has prompted MUSL to increase the estimated annuity jackpot for tonight to a knee-weakening $550 million, with a cash option of $360.2 million.

And the final jackpot tally after all the sales are counted will likely exceed that number, sinced lotteries typically post conservative jackpot estimates prior to the drawing.

Surely, tickets are being sold at such a rapid pace that the vast majority of all possible number combinations are being covered — multiple times for many combinations — but one still has to ask:  what if just one person wins $360 million in cash?  It's hard for most people to even picture a number that large, let alone manage that much cash.

Perhaps more interesting to imagine is, what if nobody wins tonight?

Well, we actually know, because MUSL has announced that if no one matches the winning numbers in tonight's drawing, the jackpot will roll to an estimated $900 million for Saturday's drawing.

And with the inevitable increases in jackpot size before the drawing, we will likely see the world's first billion-dollar lottery jackpot.  If nobody wins tonight.

Lottery players seeking to check the winning numbers Wednesday night are urged to use USA Mega (www.usamega.com).  State lottery Web sites are normally brought to a standstill during busy periods, while USA Mega normally remains responsive.

Powerball drawing results will be posted immediately after the 10:59 pm drawing at USA Mega. The number of winners and new jackpot will be announced after all participating Powerball states have reported their data, which normally occurs within a couple of hours after the drawing.

Tickets will remain on sale until around 10:00 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, although players should check with a lottery retailer in their state for the exact sales cutoff time. Players are advised not to wait until the last minute.

The odds of winning the jackpot are approximately 1 in 175 million. The odds of winning any of the Powerball prizes are approximately 1 in 32.

Lottery players can see an after-tax analysis of the current Powerball jackpot by visiting USA Mega's Jackpot Analysis page.

Powerball features nine different prize levels, ranging from $4 all the way up to the jackpot. Players can win even if they just match one number — the Powerball number.

States also offer the Power Play option for an extra dollar per ticket purchased. The Power Play multiplies any non-jackpot prizes won by a fixed amount, depending on the prize level won.

Players who purchase the Power Play and win second prize will automatically have their prize increased by 2x to $2 million.

Lottery Post Staff

Comments

ashabug725's avatarashabug725

One more raise before the draw tonight!!!

Original Bey's avatarOriginal Bey

I am hoping for another increase at or around 6pm. If they market it at 600m with a few hours left to go surely they can beat the MM March record!

Win$500Quick's avatarWin$500Quick

There will be a winner tonight and I hope it is me. I can't wait to be cursed by the lottery.

whiteballz's avatarwhiteballz

wow. still about 8 hours untill the draw. This jackpot is going to get bigger cause most people wait til the last minute to buy their ticket.

sully16's avatarsully16

I think it will , when people get off work, we'll see another spike.

RedStang's avatarRedStang

Quote: Originally posted by whiteballz on Nov 28, 2012

wow. still about 8 hours untill the draw. This jackpot is going to get bigger cause most people wait til the last minute to buy their ticket.

I said 550 b4, but i think your right. My pool already asked me to get more tics.

zinniagirl's avatarzinniagirl

Good luck to everyone.

dallascowboyfan's avatardallascowboyfan

$550 Million..............White BounceBananaDance

Piaceri

Nice!

White Bounce

VenomV12

Meh, don't care, still just want the million dollar second prize. 

bsdme

Wow... My dream is starting to come true tonight folksss..... although I'm in CA but still got some ticket from friend purchase for me.

I don't think I can concentrate on my work now.... my god help me Big Smile

Frank12449

UPDATE: Will roll to $900 million if nobody wins tonight

 

That of course actually means it would be more than a Billion dollars by Saturday night.

Original Bey's avatarOriginal Bey

Quote: Originally posted by Frank12449 on Nov 28, 2012

UPDATE: Will roll to $900 million if nobody wins tonight

 

That of course actually means it would be more than a Billion dollars by Saturday night.

I hope people aren't holding onto their grocery money hoping it rolls again - lol.

Frank12449

I'm curious as to by 10pm tonight, the percentage played of all possible combinations of numbers. 90%? 95%? I suppose with dupe sets of numbers, there's a small chance that nobody could hit, just as 3 people could hit.

It sure would be fun though to actually see a more than 1 Billion dollar jackpot. Since currently it jumped 100 from 325 to 425, and up to 550 since (600 by draw time?), to raise it by about 300 right from the start instead of 100, we could be looking at 1.25 Billion by Saturday night.

ashabug725's avatarashabug725

Quote: Originally posted by Frank12449 on Nov 28, 2012

I'm curious as to by 10pm tonight, the percentage played of all possible combinations of numbers. 90%? 95%? I suppose with dupe sets of numbers, there's a small chance that nobody could hit, just as 3 people could hit.

It sure would be fun though to actually see a more than 1 Billion dollar jackpot. Since currently it jumped 100 from 325 to 425, and up to 550 since (600 by draw time?), to raise it by about 300 right from the start instead of 100, we could be looking at 1.25 Billion by Saturday night.

My guess is 625 by draw time.. a billion would be insane if it doesn't hit... Way to start December out and end the year!! Couldn't even fathom being the sole winner of that jackpot!!!

OldSchoolPa's avatarOldSchoolPa

Roll over baby, roll over! I want to see people blow their entire paycheck trying to win a half a billion cash value!  I will use a multi-pronged attack to win...subscription, a few QPs and OPs at store, a few of both online. Then I wouldn't check my numbers until Monday.

OldSchoolPa's avatarOldSchoolPa

I could!

dk1421's avatardk1421

Seriously, if it rolled to a billion, I would probably buy $100 dollars worth of tickets.

However, I think there may be up to 3 winners tonight.

I thought maybe I have spent $20 on this one, but I think I may have to buy another 10 picks, so another $20.

Yeah, I think I could handle winning.   :-D

Frank12449

Quote: Originally posted by ashabug725 on Nov 28, 2012

My guess is 625 by draw time.. a billion would be insane if it doesn't hit... Way to start December out and end the year!! Couldn't even fathom being the sole winner of that jackpot!!!

It's mind boggling to think that if nobody wins tonight, then in just 3 days from now, the cash payout after taxes will basically be as much as the just about half Billion advertised jackpot is right now.

Cletu$2's avatarCletu$2

It only takes one ticket to win.And thats all I bought.

Frank12449

Quote: Originally posted by dk1421 on Nov 28, 2012

Seriously, if it rolled to a billion, I would probably buy $100 dollars worth of tickets.

However, I think there may be up to 3 winners tonight.

I thought maybe I have spent $20 on this one, but I think I may have to buy another 10 picks, so another $20.

Yeah, I think I could handle winning.   :-D

I won $3 on my single $1 mega millions ticket last night (1 numbers plus mega ball), so the only $2 powerball ticket I bought at the same time, was essentially free.

I'm a believer in 1 set of numbers, leave it up to fate. Even if you have 175,000 sets of numbers, that only covers 1/10th of 1% of the 175 million combinations of numbers. Back in March, an NBA player bought 10,000 mega millions tickets, but he didn't win the jackpot.

Frank12449

Quote: Originally posted by Cletu$2 on Nov 28, 2012

It only takes one ticket to win.And thats all I bought.

Cheers

Original Bey's avatarOriginal Bey

The occasional player jumping in on a big jackpot would be expected to spend his mortgage chasing a dream.

 

The experienced player knows that the major part of his investment should come from refining his strategy to select the right numbers to build the best combinations.

 

Laziness leads to waste. It may seem convenient to walk into a store and demand a specific number of QPs and be done with it, but at the end of the day I will be able to pay my bills, will he?

dallascowboyfan's avatardallascowboyfan

"UPDATE: Will roll to $900 million if nobody wins tonight".......Thud

KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd

Quote: Originally posted by Frank12449 on Nov 28, 2012

I'm curious as to by 10pm tonight, the percentage played of all possible combinations of numbers. 90%? 95%? I suppose with dupe sets of numbers, there's a small chance that nobody could hit, just as 3 people could hit.

It sure would be fun though to actually see a more than 1 Billion dollar jackpot. Since currently it jumped 100 from 325 to 425, and up to 550 since (600 by draw time?), to raise it by about 300 right from the start instead of 100, we could be looking at 1.25 Billion by Saturday night.

With current interest rates the cash value is about 65% of the advertised annuity. About 64 cents of each ticket goes to the jackpot. That means that the increase in the advertised jackpot is pretty close to the number of tickets they expect to sell, so the $225 million increase from the last drawing means they're confident that they'll sell 225 million tickets. If it climbs to 600 by tonight  it would mean sales are closer to 275 million tickets.

Here are some rough estimates of what percentage of combinations are used at given sales levels:
225 million tickets   about 77%
250 million tickets   about 82%
275 million tickets   about 84%
300 million tickets   about 86%

Selling 90% of combinations would probably take an absolute minimum of 350 million tickets. Figure 95% is somewhere north of 450 million.

That's a rough approximation based on probability and some assumptions about additional duplicates based on people choosing non-random combinations. That means there's about a 20 to 15% chance of a rollover, depending on how high sales go and what numbers are drawn.  Lots of high numbers are more likely to result in a rollover, while all birthday numbers will almost certainly result in at least one winner, and probably more.

Personally I prefer MM and  part of me wants to see them keep the record, but it would certainly be wild to see a real jackpot pass the half billion dollar mark.  People get irrational, but I'm not convinced that a rollover will take the advertised jackpot to a billion, since it's possible that we're close to the saturation point. Depending on where it finishes, reaching abillion would require selling 30 to 40% more tickets than get sold for this drawing. OTOH, even if some people burn out and don't play again if it rolls the advertised jackpot only needs to reach $764 million for the cash prize to reach half a billion.

Frank12449

Thanks KY Floyd.  Thumbs Up

Ronnie316

Quote: Originally posted by Frank12449 on Nov 28, 2012

Cheers

       Cheers

Ronnie316

I bought two more "Donald's" for good measure.....

IllwinIt

Its something that only 5 white balls and 1 red powerball is all it takes, when the other 54 white balls and 38 red powerballs are worthless. With the odds around 175 million to one. I think using stategy will greatly reduce those odds by tens of millions. By using statistics and previos results from the past 26 drawings for picking numbers would really increase your chances.

ashabug725's avatarashabug725

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Nov 28, 2012

I bought two more "Donald's" for good measure.....

One of these qps are extremely close to one of my self picks!!!!

Ronnie316

Quote: Originally posted by IllwinIt on Nov 28, 2012

Its something that only 5 white balls and 1 red powerball is all it takes, when the other 54 white balls and 38 red powerballs are worthless. With the odds around 175 million to one. I think using stategy will greatly reduce those odds by tens of millions. By using statistics and previos results from the past 26 drawings for picking numbers would really increase your chances.

Your right, that's why I played THIS wheel.........

Wheel:  Pick 5 Key 4 if 4 of 10

Tickets:  25

Description:  Minimum 4-number match, if 4 numbers drawn fall within your set of 10 numbers.

Input:  10, 22, 31, 9, 39, 47, 14, 56, 3, 20

1. 09-10-22-31-56 
2. 10-22-31-39-56 
3. 10-20-22-31-47 
4. 03-10-14-22-31 
5. 09-10-22-39-47 
6. 09-10-14-20-22 
7. 03-09-10-20-22 
8. 03-10-22-39-47 
9. 10-14-20-22-39 
10. 10-14-22-47-56 
11. 03-10-20-22-56 
12. 09-10-20-31-39 
13. 09-10-14-31-47 
14. 03-09-10-31-47 
15. 10-14-31-39-47 
16. 03-10-20-31-39 
17. 03-10-31-47-56 
18. 10-14-20-31-56 
19. 09-10-14-39-56 
20. 03-09-10-14-39 
21. 03-09-10-47-56 
22. 09-10-20-47-56 
23. 10-20-39-47-56 
24. 03-10-14-39-56 
25. 03-10-14-20-47

Ronnie316

Quote: Originally posted by ashabug725 on Nov 28, 2012

One of these qps are extremely close to one of my self picks!!!!

No surprise....... Donald and I play these kind of play slips all week long for big jackpots.....

whiteballz's avatarwhiteballz

the person who won Mega Millions laste night muct be loving all this attention on PB. He/she can collect their money in peace.

ashabug725's avatarashabug725

Quote: Originally posted by whiteballz on Nov 28, 2012

the person who won Mega Millions laste night muct be loving all this attention on PB. He/she can collect their money in peace.

I Agree!

Ronnie316

Quote: Originally posted by ashabug725 on Nov 28, 2012

I Agree!

       I Agree!

dr65's avatardr65

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Nov 28, 2012

I bought two more "Donald's" for good measure.....

...hey....Skeptical one of those lines has my same pb # plus 2 matches on the regular play line.

I see they're pitching that pb of 21 around pretty good too. Skeptical Skeptical

Ronnie316

Quote: Originally posted by dr65 on Nov 28, 2012

...hey....Skeptical one of those lines has my same pb # plus 2 matches on the regular play line.

I see they're pitching that pb of 21 around pretty good too. Skeptical Skeptical

If the "21" was good enough for Donald its good enough for me...... lol. lol.

lakerben's avatarlakerben

Save your money because I'm going to win it.  Just kidding, good luck to everyone.

 

US Flag

Ronnie316

Quote: Originally posted by lakerben on Nov 28, 2012

Save your money because I'm going to win it.  Just kidding, good luck to everyone.

 

US Flag

I hope you do win........ I will consider my loss a worthy contribution.... lol. lol.Patriot

dr65's avatardr65

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Nov 28, 2012

If the "21" was good enough for Donald its good enough for me...... lol. lol.

Dance

Uluska's avatarUluska

It is easier to match red power ball, then match combinations, because this ball you are choosing among only 39  balls, while combinations you are choosing among hundreds of millions. If you have numbers that you believe in, play them using all 39 red balls, so you make 39 tickets fro one combination you believe in. That way, if your combination is good, one of the tickets will have also proper power ball, increasing your win. :)

ecnirP's avatarecnirP

...and on top of everything else, the winner(s) of this Powerball is going to have perfect timing, pulling in that huge jackpot just before huge tax increases go into effect.


It's too bad the governments get to get their shares first. Wouldn't that be something as one of your first acts as the Powerball winner was to sit down and write a check north of $90,000,000.00 made out to the "Internal Revenue Service" and signed with your name? Just wow!

Original Bey's avatarOriginal Bey

Quote: Originally posted by Uluska on Nov 28, 2012

It is easier to match red power ball, then match combinations, because this ball you are choosing among only 39  balls, while combinations you are choosing among hundreds of millions. If you have numbers that you believe in, play them using all 39 red balls, so you make 39 tickets fro one combination you believe in. That way, if your combination is good, one of the tickets will have also proper power ball, increasing your win. :)

1 of 35

Frank12449

Quote: Originally posted by IllwinIt on Nov 28, 2012

Its something that only 5 white balls and 1 red powerball is all it takes, when the other 54 white balls and 38 red powerballs are worthless. With the odds around 175 million to one. I think using stategy will greatly reduce those odds by tens of millions. By using statistics and previos results from the past 26 drawings for picking numbers would really increase your chances.

Unless I'm missing something, isn't all the talk about studying past numbers, etc, all illogical? The machine can't read the numbers of the balls, it simply just randomly spits out 5 of 59, and 1 of 35.

People tend to say things like "1, 2, 3, 4, 5, powerball 6 never happens". With 175 million combos of numbers though, at 104 drawing per year, it would take 1,682,692 years for all those combos of numbers to be drawn. In the 20 years since Powerball started, we've only seen just over 2000 drawings.

Subscribe to this news story