Like I've said. No winner by Christmas and we'll be certainly staring at our first Billion dollar pot. The Frenzy has started. Whoooopppeeee!!!!! In it to win it.

curiouser and cusiouser

I pray everyone the best.

Lone ticket winnner emerging tonight?......

WOOO heee

I'll take about $95,000,000 after Federal Redistribution!

It WILL be Christmas in December!

You set the bar pretty low if you think that's a frenzy.

The last time MM got this high was almost 2 years ago, in the run up to the record $656 jackpot. At that time the advertised jackpot was increased $49 million, from 241 to 290 million, compared to the current increase of $40 million. The actual cash value increase was more than $34 million, compared to the current increase of  about $21.5 million. If it rolls, maybe we'll see something approaching a real frenzy after they start advertising a jackpot that starts with a 3.

Unless sales really don't take off at all, rolling until the Tuesday before Christmas would probably take it to at least a billion. Rolling to the following Friday would certainly break the billion mark, and could well be considerably more. The current sales are small enough that a rollover is very likely, but another 4 or 5 rollovers is very unlikely, assuming we do see sales in the  $250 million range.

I want to see people in here win jackpot or atleast the second prize. Me Me

I hope I saved my luck for tonight as I had 8037 in the Illinoins mid day pick four (box & straigt) and it came in 3037.   Sad.

Good luck everyone.

Consider this:   This coming draw will be a 19th draw.    This has happened twice.   Once right after the switch to the $2 Powerball ticket - I think before the new Powerball actually set in people's pysche - whereupon the Jackpot was $651 million annuity, the largest ever observed.   On that single draw, at the end of March 2012, MM actually sold around $650 million in tickets.

The next 19th draw took place in May of this year, producing a jackpot of $190 million, and sold around 60 million tickets.   Arguably the $2 Powerball ticket cost the lotteries overall, something like $600,000,000 in lost sales, although its not clear that in the old days we would have seen another 19th draw at least for a long time.

Right now, with the new matrix, comparing draw numbers to draw numbers, sales have actually further eroded compared to the old matrix.    One might not expect this much sense from the customers of the lotteries, but that's the situation immediately.    The new matrix is a much, much, much worse deal than the old one, not that the old one was ever a good deal, although in those days one could actually see expectation values close to and even exceeding 1.00

I would imagine that it would take up to 25 draws to reach a billion dollar jackpot (annuity) under these circumstances, should they prevail.    That would take three months from the next won jackpot.

Consider this last draw.    We had a jackpot with a weaker cash to annuity ratio that sold less than 50 million tickets, whereas in that March 2012, the comparably sized jackpot sold close to 80 million tickets, jumping from $241 million to $290 million with a much higher cash to annuity ratio.   I have a few tickets in this game - what the heck - but basically I think the $2 Powerball ticket thoroughly wrecked Megamillions and I don't expect that this bad idea of much worse odds for the jackpot, coupled with lower prize values for the lower tier (except for 5 of 5 with no Megaball), is going to improve the situation.

Hmmm, fair points. My comment on frenzy was merely predicated on the fact that it was a pre-draw jump, albiet a mini one. But i get your point and i think you just might be right. But ooking at the past drawing that led up to the $656 million jackpot....the tuesdays draw that week was $290 million, and then by the Friday's draw the final tally was $656 mil, that was a $300 million jump. Now with the odds increased with a 50% degree of difficulty. I think 3 more draws AFTER tonight's draw might just bring it to the billion+ mark. And i say.....WHY NOT!!!

Is it me or has the 'JP cash value 'decreased in MM since they started the new marix?

We should also remember that the cash value in relation to the annuity fluctautes and changes over time as its based on interest rates.

Good luck everyone. Im in it to win it

I'm going to wait to see if this one rolls higher before jumping in.

Not yet my Friend!! We're getting close though. Three more I predict!!!

Seasons Greetings @pickone4me,

     You might want to get in on this one earlier partner.......with the odds being reduced for the lower prizes, you could win a coo! million just like that.

Come On......Get back in it and win it!!

Dreamer,

In addition to interest rates, this is a direct result of them changing the annuity from 26 to 30 payments.

I really don't think we will get a $1 billion jackpot this draw cycle, but you never know. I agree that MM has not been performing very well since the change, but time will tell if the frenzy sales can make up for it. I have a feeling if this new matrix fails, a $5 jackpot game will arrive in the near future.

Here's my idea:

They should keep the previous version of the game going January through September or so.  Then, say around Columbus Day, they change it up for the rest of the year, or until a jackpot is won after the end of the year.  January through September the betting slips are in play.  But afterwards, there's the 75/15 matrix that can only be accessed by quick picks -- no slips.

"NO" to $5 tickets!

Yes, they weakened the cash value significantly (by extending the time period of the annuity value if paid).

Actually, MM sales seem to have responded nicely since the new matrix. Their ploy with the pumped up annuity value seems to have worked, players seem to have bit into it hook, line and sinker. Sales have been boosted by the pumped up annuity value.

Below graph compares current run in blue (with projections) compared to preceding $189M run (P) on old matrix ending 10/1/13 in orange:

But compared to a year ago with the record $656M run (R) , yes, way down. But that was a different time when large jackpots were less common. What a difference a year makes:

Jackpot will be $344 million if nobody hits tonight.

NO way!! $360 million minimum!!!     

JonD,

Time will tell. The previous $189M Mega Millions run was hampered by not one, but two $400M+ Powerball jackpots. The matrix change may help MM catch up, but at the same time will accelerate jackpot fatigue. With fatigue comes sluggish sales and longer rolls, though Powerball has some advantage with a higher price. That's why I don't think the new MM will last and hence, my mentioning of a $5 game (which I know is in the works).

344 million from the megamillions site

Wow, Todd. That's impressive. $344 right on the money.

Figures NYL has'nt updated their MM jackpot while pa, ct and nj already did.

LOL. Didn't you watch the drawing? The host says that if no one wins, Wednesdays jackpot could be worth $344 mil.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFC6gdrO6HQ&feature=c4-overview&list=UUOKAdrQ0sKR9H1hi88RmQkA

Nope, I never watch the drawings. But now that I know what was said, I'm much less impressed with Todd's fortune telling abilities. LOL.

NY runs a really lousy lottery in many ways. They have to check for winners as soon as the drawing is certified, and they post the winning numbers fairly quickly. How hard could it be to also update the jackpot amount? I presume the're not making one of their web programers work late to manually change the actual code; somebody just needs to type the numbers and hit enter or click a button.  As long as somebody is working late enough to report whether or not there's a winner there's no reason they couldn't update the jackpot, too.

FTM, the entire process could be automated. In fact, it probably should be automated to avoid somebody fat-fingering the numbers and posting incorrect data. Everybody knows what the jackpot will be if there's a winner, and they don't wait until they find out there are no winners and then sit down and decide what the next jackpot will be. They figure that out ahead of time, and announce it publicly (that's how Todd knew to report it this afternoon).

When it comes to the lotteries and numbers, don't mess with the "chief bottle washer". HE KNOWS HIS STUFF. He said $344M and you said $360M minimum. We'll see who is right. He is right on the money.

$344 mil, here we come!

They've always been a bit conservative once the jackpots get high, and as slow as sales have been I expect they're being even more conservative. Announcing it as 344 million means they're confident that sales will be enough to reach that. It doen't mean they think that's as high as sales could push it, so 355 to 360 is certainly possible.

Of course, you can do your part by running out and buying  a few thousand tickets if you want to make it more lkely.

The sales tonight were $57.5 million, below the sales of the 1st drawing after Florida joined with a jackpot of $190 million. During Mega's record run to $656 million in 2012, this level of sales would have been reached at a level between the $171 million and $200 million drawings.

Sales were $8.4 million more from Tuesday's drawing. The frenzy hasn't begun yet

Well, I won five bucks or well three after deducting my two tickets, would've been $15/$11 if I spent another two bucks on the multiplier or just bought one ticket $13 since the first ticket I bought was the one I got 2+1 with. Would've been $10 before the changes.

Meh.

Thanks metro and Prob..I overlooked that factor.

Jon D, You're dreaming.

Your graphical projections for draw numbers that have never taken place are fanciful.

For a 19th draw, on this matrix MM sales are 17% - based on the average sales of two previous 19th draws - since the $2 Powerball was instituted.   (The first 19th draw produced 650 million in sales, right after the switch to the $2 powerball, the second, around 35 million.)

There has never before in MM been a 20th draw.   The just announced rollover to "344 million" is the first 20th draw ever played in this game.   On this basis, the lottery is predicting around 80 million in sales.   Even if the number bumps up by 20 million or so, the new matrix represents a sales failure.

It will almost certainly be worse once the new matrix has to start all over after being won.

  $344 Million

 Good Luck everyone

Sales for MM were already way down and getting pummelled by PB prior to the new MM. But to say that the sales were down even more because of the new matrix is not only premature, it is inaccurate.

On the contrary, it is clear from my graph to see that not only did players not abandon MM with the new matrix, they responded with higher sales due to new annuity. And all of the big JP runs on PB and MM follow similar curves, so it's pretty easy to forecast how they will end up. It's just shifted in time a bit depending on the run up, so looking at the absolute draw number is not as important as the shape of the curve and response to the annuity value.

I agree that time will tell if this new MM is enough of a shot in the arm to save the dying patient. PB has proven that the multi-state jackpot customer base will sustain the $2 price and it will always have that advantage with roughly twice the base/starting sales. So this new MM could very well just be transitional, but it's an interesting change nonetheless.

What is the ball matrix and odds for the new $5 game they are working on?

I am looking forward to about $110,000,000 after Federal Redistribution!

That would be a really big Christmas in December LOL

 good luck to all LP Members!

Maybe it's just me, but I get more excited by large rollover amounts than a large number of rollovers. Usually a JP of over $300M would have me all a-twitter. But it took so long to get there I'm already tired of it.

Every time I go to buy a ticket I stop and realize that if I'm going to throw good money away, shouldn't I throw it away on the game with the better odds of winning? Maybe the MM fever will hit me this week with this new tally, unfortunately, I'm still not feeling it.

Right now I'm feeling the PB more. With everyone focused on MM, I hope to sneak a win and collect the winnings without anyone even noticing. LOL

Hats off to you may Friend. Not sure if you simply guessed or what but either way, you got me on this one. I was predicting $360 Million range.

You may still be right if the JP increases to $360M by tuesday night due to brisk sales. The only downside is that PB is currently $100M and competing for the same entertainment dollars.

No idea. I just heard directly from a lottery official that such a game is in the works and they are looking to launch it within the next 2 years.

Compared draw to draw, the sales are lower, period.

This matrix has not started from a first draw, but matched jackpot to jackpot, and draw number to draw number, as well as on both the Pre-$2 Powerball, and Post-$2 Powerball, they are lower, dramatically so in the former case.

The $651 M MM (Annuity) jackpot occurred on a 19th draw.   The coming one is a 20th draw.

I'm at a loss to see how you can say they are higher.

Uhhh...ok...whatevs...Prob. 

I already explained it to you in detail.

I'm at a loss to see how you can say the blue line is lower than the brown line at the bottom: (since the matrix change, 6th draw)

Below graph compares current run in blue (with projections) compared to preceding $189M run (P) on old matrix ending 10/1/13 in orange:

There's very little that's obvious in your graphs. You've got two sets of 3 lines with the same labels, and numbers on top of numbers. You've got lines that are extrapolated into areas for which there's no historical data. I'm not going to waste a lot of time trying to decipher the meaning.

The one thing that's clear is that with MM sales below what they used to be it's very hard to make predictins about what's going to happen as the jackpot grows, and (as Prob noted) whta sales will be like when the jackpot returns to a comparatively paltry $15 million.

Consumers can be really stupid, but that hardly means the lotteries cant come up with a game that  people aren'ty going to play. MM officials may  not have broken the game completely, but  I seriously doubt that they've done much to solve whatever problems may be  reducing sales.

Back in June and August  a pair of runs had jumps from 61 to 70 millin and 60 to 69 million, which represents a cash increase of about $6.5 million. After the natrix change this run  had an increase from 65 to 75 million, which was about $5.4 million in cash. Despite starting from a slightly higher point, that increase represents about 82% of the sales for the increase only a few months ago. In the run immediately before this one  a jackpot of 130 million rolled to 145, for a cash increase of about $10.5 million. This run's increase from 132 to 149  was a cash increase of about $9.2 million, about 88% of the pre-change figure.

Of course it's normal to have some variation, and so far we've only got one post-change run to offer clues. Especiually if w get a really huge jackpot  the next run might grow faster, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm guessing th bestMM canhope for is that the new odds will produce enough in sales fro bigger, but rare, jackpots to offset the smaller sales  for typical jackpots.

If you can't make sense of such a simple chart with colors and legend, that's not my problem. Look at the data on your own, or make your own.

As I told Prob, to make an assessment that sales are way down, on a partial first run, is not only premature, but inaccurate. But based on the immediate preceding run, sales are obviously slightly up. You can't compare something which has been in decline for 21 months (MM) and look at the effects of a new change (new MM matrix) compared to 21 months ago before the decline. That is foolish.

The most recent run 2 months ago is the most relevant for comparison. But as I said, it's premature with a partial first run for complete assessment, not taking into account seasonal issues and competition from PB. What about that are you objecting to?

And your comparisons are just plain wrong. Like previous run 130 to 145 (cash inc 10.2) for the same draws 15-16 on this run is 181 to 205,(cash inc 11.8) which are both higher.

rcbbuckeye's post (https://www.lotterypost.com/news/269858/3416408) brought this back to my mind.

Unless things have changed, the new $5 game I know of has been in development since 2011 (possibly sooner).

• Hybrid game format - instant scratch off (retailer) with draw game component (online only)
• It will feature a base 65% payout (some states have higher)
• Proposed $1 million prize odds of 1 in 905,000 (either online draw or game show where random audience steps on money squares on a pyramid)
• Proposed structure with overall odds of 1 in 4.99
• Not a traditional ball lottery so no rollover ()

They don't want to call the draw component "second chance" but it is what it is. Basically a second chance online entry into national weekly game show utilizing the draw component entries. Reminds me of Deal or No Deal. Personally, I hate the idea of a game show concept. This game does not feel like a national jackpot should. Rather it's more like scratch off with second chance. Tentative name is/was "10 Steps to a Billion" (TV show season with finale of top 10 winners competing for $1 billion); most likely game will use simple generic "national" or "big ticket" type name. They wanted to launch in 2012, but they keep pushing it ahead because it's very sophisticated....that or they're having trouble making it a "sell" 

As always, you heard it here first 

*Disclaimer: my information may not be completely up to date; however, it is from official sources.

As always, you heard it here first 

What is that phrase you keep saying, "You heard it here first!" Is that your slogan LottoMetro? 

Slogan, mantra, what have you, I like to use it as a grapevine tag. 

Oh and I forgot to mention a "World Millions" ($10) concept they are considering which would allow lottery players to play 5 national jackpot games on one ticket regardless of nationality (potentially includes second-chance raffle). So U.S. residents could participate in EuroMillions, Oz Lotto, etc and vice versa.

You heard it here first!™ 

I just found it interesting that you were sooo eager to dredge up this month old news thread just to say, "lookee at me, I told all of you a month ago about the $5 national game! Listen to me! Follow me! And remember, You heard it from me first!"

You work in the lottery industry, so you obviously have inside information on upcoming developments. But I wonder why are you posting so much?

There have been other people from the lottery industry that have posted on LP before. But they were generally respectful, and didn't draw attention to themselves the way you do.

So the question is: are you here in an official capacity, or are you just here on your own?

Are you here "on the clock" so to speak, to gather information on lottery players, and/or influence the opinion of lottery players? Or building a following for some other purpose?

Just curious

As mentioned in the first post of this "dredge," rcbbuckeye's post in the other thread just brought this back to mind. I post the "you heard it here first" often as a sarcastic joke. The archives on this forum are full of nonsense rumors about lottery matters.

If I have been disrespectful, feel free to point out specifics. Most, no I would say 99.999999999999% of lottery industry people don't have time or desire to post on forums like this. They get bombarded by the crazies who think a game is rigged or get accused of trying to squash a "winning" system. If I was in an official capacity do you honestly think I would be hanging around here? I might browse every now and then but probably wouldn't even have an account.

I am enthusastic about sharing information, that's all. I hardly see anyone else around here taking the time to correct misinformation or offer relevant posts

I'm just trying to figure out your angle, that's all. Something doesn't add up.

I found it interesting that the domain lottometro.com was registered/modified last year around the time you joined LP.

And yes, I noticed you many times trying to get the scoop on Todd, even challenging Todd, and break lottery news and jackpot updates with your famous slogan, "You heard it here first!"

Are you planning your own lottery website and building your base of followers here as the de facto lottery expert?

Some of the things you've dropped in past postings: you're a mathematician, a business and economics grad, you work in reality TV and the film industry, and you have millionaire friends that carry around $10,000 cash in their pockets. Those are just some of the zingers I remember.  Oh, and you work in the lottery industry.

For for a person so busy, you seem to spend an inordinate amount of time posting here, trying to dazzle people with your mathematical skills and inside knowledge.

I haven't quite figured you out just yet, but a few more clues and the profile will be complete. 

Sorry, I forgot to address your last sentence:

I hardly see anyone else around here taking the time to correct misinformation or offer relevant posts

OMG what an ego! Everyone else on LP is irrelevant except for LottoMetro. 

Detective Jon,

Most people have an angle. Mine? Not sure. I waste a lot of time on this forum but not for any specific reason. I like playing the lottery and working with the mathematics of it, trying to find an edge and all. My posts tend to be lengthy because I am a writer by nature (published, another zinger )

I register all of my forums' usernames. Believe it or not, it is a habit. I have no plans to add any websites to my LP profile or even publize them.

"Challenging Todd." If Todd told you the color red was blue and green mixed together would you accept it as gospel? I admit my social skills are lacking but in no way have my responses to Todd been insulting. I try to be helpful by posting revelant information. If he (or anyone else really) posts something that isn't really accurate, I try to improve it. Forums are designed for information sharing, so what good is it if everything one says is accepted without consideration. I know that I've had to be corrected here before, nothing wrong with that.

TV and film is seasonal, so that only keeps me busy for a small fraction of the year. Millionaire friend - I only see maybe once(?) a year. Billionaire I haven't seen in 3 years. Good luck getting anything other than a free meal and Mercedes ride from them!