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    <title>Playing RPS game using Lyapunov threshold improves game's payout</title>
    <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/blogentry/31240</link>
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    <description>edge's Blog: Playing RPS game using Lyapunov threshold improves game's payout</description>
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      <title>Original Blog Entry: Playing RPS game using Lyapunov threshold improves game's payout</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/blogentry/31240</link>
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      <pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 21:47:26 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>edge</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[<p>After much research and troubleshooting finally some progress in the analysis of RPS (Rock Paper Scissors) game model.</p><p>Why the RPS game is of so much interest to me? Because RPS represents one of the simplest models (two players with three probabilistic states each) in fact RPS game<br />is used by researches in game theory, statistics and chaos theory to study phenomena in non-linear dynamics.</p><p>In the game theory&nbsp; the simplest goal is to improve payout matrix (as its in the lottery which is a type of probabilistic game, albeit very extreme case of one!)</p><p>One thing RPS game has in common with lottery is its random probability distribution between game iterations, of course RPS probability states are only 3 where else in a typical lottery game let say mega lottery, there are 56 different&nbsp; probability states between each iteration, nevertheless its still of value to study simpler models<br />(possible reduction of large dimensional probabilistic state game (such as lottery) to simpler model is unknown at this stage, I don't even know if at all possible!)</p><p>With RPS game, 3 different trials were run, each iterating&nbsp;4 times across 500 game runs and each run was divided to one of two bets:</p><p>1. blind bets, using RPS game learning algorithm that at best yields &gt; 0.333% improvement over statistical medium</p><p>2. using Local Lyapunov Threshold to consistently (and selectively) bet on Local Lyapunov Threshold bands</p><p>Both 1 and 2 game outcome were collected and are displayed below (note that consistent improvement has been made of 2 over 1, yielding some credibility to the fact that using Local Lyapunov Threshold can in fact improve game's outcome matrix.</p><p><strong>This in fact is really surprising to me, to recall RPS game probabilistic states are chosen from the random numbers! So in short, Lyapunov strategy compensates for the random!</strong></p><p>There are many things not done as yet such as introduction of:</p><p>1. adaptive threshold (to inject statistical inference to Local Lyapunov Threshold)</p><p>2. entropy filtering</p><p>Below is output from rps_game.cpp, improved trials (using LLE threshold) were marked witth &quot;GAIN&quot; label, there were 12 trials run resulting in 10 improved (GAIN) payouts with LLE over 2 that did not use LLE Threshold.</p><p>----------------------</p><p>Strategy without(-)<br />Total Game Iterations: 2525....</p><p>[ <a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/blogentry/31240">More</a> ]</p>]]></description>
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