<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">
  <channel>
    <title>Expected Return</title>
    <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301</link>
    <atom:link href="http://www.lotterypost.com/rss/topic/81301" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
    <description>Lottery Post Forum Topic: Expected Return</description>
    <dc:language>en-us</dc:language>
    <generator>Lottery Post RSS Generator</generator>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #23</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/179629</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/179629</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2004 07:35:16 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>LottoBuddy</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on February 22, 2004Assuming an after-tax cash value of $16 million and 1 million tickets sold, I estimate the expected value of the jackpot prize itself at $1.10. The value of the secondary prizes bring the value higher. I did not bother calculating them because the value is already well over 1 dollar. Since nobody (including the research paper) has given an actual example showing the calculations, I'll give it a shot:($2,657,320 / $13,983,816) + ($16,000,000... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/179629">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>LottoBuddy</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #22</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178903</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178903</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2004 02:19:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>Jake649</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[LottoBuddy,Here is my estimated expected value for the Mass Millions at the jackot level of $49.2 million.Assuming an after-tax cash value of $16 million and 1 million tickets sold, I estimate the expected value of the jackpot prize itself at $1.10. The value of the secondary prizes bring the value higher. I did not bother calculating them because the value is already well over 1 dollar.I would like to be part of a group to try to win the jackpot. You do not have to try to buy all the tickets to... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178903">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>Jake649</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #21</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178789</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178789</guid>
      <pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2004 21:28:04 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>LottoBuddy</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on February 19, 2004 One lottery that currently does have a positve expected value is the Mass Millions with a jackpot of $48.5 million. With very low sales, one can reasonably expect to not have to share the jackpot if won. If I lived there, I would only buy tickets for this lottery to the exclusion of all other lotteries until the jackpot is won. Can Jake649 or prob987 please post their numerical calculation of the expected value for the Mass Millions $49.2]]></description>
      <category>LottoBuddy</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #20</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178779</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178779</guid>
      <pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2004 21:06:36 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>LottoBuddy</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Quote: Originally posted by goose on February 22, 2004 Are you calculating for the government?I am surprised you guys are so fond of it..so whats the point? Looking for a fair bet is the best thing that gamblers like you can do.  The lotteries love players that stupidly buy tickets without even knowing the odds of winning, expected or potential value, and other important calculations.Some mathematically-inclined people are interested in the math of lotteries.  To each his own.  I have seen a lot... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178779">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>LottoBuddy</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #19</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178580</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178580</guid>
      <pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2004 10:03:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>goose</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Are you calculating for the government?I am surprised you guys are so fond of it..so whats the point]]></description>
      <category>goose</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #18</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178482</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/178482</guid>
      <pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2004 01:36:23 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>prob987</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[I have reviewed lottobuddy's paper posted earlier.  As I surmised in my conversation with Jake, the issue comes down to taxation.  An expectation values you may have seen from me or will see from me do not include taxes.]]></description>
      <category>prob987</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #17</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177915</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177915</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2004 12:36:44 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>Jake649</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[LottoBuddy,I am using the term expected value. It is not calculated by simply dividing the amount of money paid out by the number of tickets sold. The reason is that the money paid out is based upon someone winning the jackpot, this is not a given. Expected value calculations does not depend upon the jackpot being won, only the probability that it is won and by how many tickets. In performing expected value calculations, you need to calculate the probability of no jackpot winner, 1 winner, 2 win... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177915">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>Jake649</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #16</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177832</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177832</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2004 03:47:34 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>LottoBuddy</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on February 18, 2004 The highest expected value for the Lotto 649 lottery occured on the Sept 30, 2000 draw. The expected value was 79%. The jackpot was $15 million and the sales were 28,649,988 tickets. The expected value is usually around 70% when the jackpot is $10 million The highest expected value for the Super 7 lottery occured just recently on Jan 30, 2004. The expected value was 70%. The jackpot was $30 million and the sales were 33,834,020 tickets.Tha... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177832">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>LottoBuddy</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #15</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177564</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177564</guid>
      <pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2004 13:03:47 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>prob987</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[And you'd be smart to do it.]]></description>
      <category>prob987</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #14</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177555</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177555</guid>
      <pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2004 12:49:10 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>Jake649</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[prob987,I agree taxes are something we have to live with. But, nonetheless, I believe it is important that the tax factor is used to calculate the expected value. It is the after tax money that you truly  win . It is for the same reason that we use the cash value rather than the annutiy value to calculate expected value.You are correct in stating that a positive expected value is a rarity. One lottery that currently does have a positve expected value is the Mass Millions with a jackpot of $48.5]]></description>
      <category>Jake649</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #13</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177551</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177551</guid>
      <pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2004 12:38:12 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>prob987</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Well that may be the key to the discrepancy, Jake, and my calculation that the MegaMillions right now has a slightly favorable expectation value.    I don't factor in taxes.   People of course pay taxes on all kinds of income and usually report their earnings before taxes when asked  How much do you make?    They do this on stock valuations as well.  So it seems to me that the calculation of a return on the ticket should be a before tax, rather than after tax calculation.  It is worth noting tha... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177551">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>prob987</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #12</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177301</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177301</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2004 19:16:41 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>Jake649</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[LottoBuddy,I have calculated the expected values of the Canadian Lotto 649 and Super 7 lotteries and no, they have never had a positive expected value. The reason is as you have surmised - high sales.The highest expected value for the Lotto 649 lottery occured on the Sept 30, 2000 draw. The expected value was 79%. The jackpot was $15 million and the sales were 28,649,988 tickets. The expected value is usually around 70% when the jackpot is $10 millionThe highest expected value for the Super 7 lo... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177301">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>Jake649</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #11</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177295</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177295</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2004 18:46:18 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>LottoBuddy</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[You're all welcome.  I've been trying to find out the expected payoffs for Canada's Lotto 6/49 and Lotto Super 7.  My hypothesis is that even though they offer tax-free cash jackpots, they have never had a positive expected return because of high sales.  I am requesting if prob987 or other statistical guru can plug the numbers into their complex formula and confirm this.The last time the 6/49 jackpot exceeded the 1 in 13,983,816 odds was for a $15 million draw back in November 15, 1997.  Looking... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177295">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>LottoBuddy</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #10</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177130</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177130</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2004 11:58:24 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>KyngeRycharde</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Lottobuddy, I too echo prob987's sentiments and wish to thank you for posting that link.I have always enjoyed mathematics, and this will help me immensely in understanding what expected return is all about. Thank God I had teachers and professors who instilled in us a desire to wonder and ask questions, then attempt to find the answers.LOL...perhaps I should have titled my original post  Expected Payout . And that brings to mind another question that I am curious about. What is the theoretical p... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177130">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>KyngeRycharde</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #9</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177106</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177106</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2004 11:03:09 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>prob987</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Thanks for the wonderful link lottobuddy.   I've downloaded the paper.   Eqn(4) is exactly the equation I use in calculating expectation values, with equ'n 3 being the form I posted on the other thread.   However, my results conflict with the statement that  there has never been a MB or PB drawing  that gave a fair bet.    I calculate that the expectation value for this drawing (217 million) is actually a fair bet with an expectation value of 1.02.   I have seen at least two or three other such]]></description>
      <category>prob987</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #8</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177031</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/177031</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2004 02:33:54 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>LottoBuddy</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[In Search of a Fair Bet in the Lottery  @ http://www.williams.edu/Economics/wp/mathesonlottery.pdf examined 18,000 drawings in 34 American lotteries and finds approximately 1% of these drawings provided players with a fair bet, mostly in small states.  None of the popular lotteries like Mega Millions or Powerball has ever produced a fair bet since a large jackpot attracts a corresponding large number of buyers, diminishing the expected value of a ticket.]]></description>
      <category>LottoBuddy</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #7</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176618</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176618</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2004 07:22:25 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>goose</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Can math help crack lottery?NOLeave that math to yourself]]></description>
      <category>goose</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #6</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176592</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176592</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2004 03:57:32 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>prob987</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[The following formula gives the expectation value for all the lower prizes of the MM.  The value is roughly 0.17.=100000/2939677+5000/502195+100/12249+100/10685+7/261+7/697+4/124+3/70You can see the general trends with this formula.  For the jackpot the situation is considerably more complex.   You need to use the Poisson distribution formula I posted in the Probability of a Rollover thread, sum the probabilities of winners times the cash value of the prize (before or after taxes depending on yo... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176592">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>prob987</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #5</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176586</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176586</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2004 03:01:41 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>KyngeRycharde</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[I used the formula O * [1 - P] where O = odds of winning the jackpot and P = the total payout percentage minus the payout percentage for the jackpot (if it was given on johnph77's web site quoted above).As prob987 correctly pointed out in his post, I went under the presumption that there would be a single winner. I also failed to mention that the amounts listed were also based on the size of the annuitized jackpot before taxes. Taking into consideration multiple winners, the cash option and taxe... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176586">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>KyngeRycharde</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #4</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176302</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/176302</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2004 06:23:38 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>LottoBuddy</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[Quote: Originally posted by KyngeRycharde on February 10, 2004 Powerball---$99.6 million To KyngeRycharde and prob987, please show your numerical calculations for Powerball.]]></description>
      <category>LottoBuddy</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #3</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/174887</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/174887</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2004 04:43:33 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>goose</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[I hope we could win any lottery ASAP]]></description>
      <category>goose</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #2</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/174886</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/174886</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2004 04:43:16 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>goose</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[I wish we could win anyone lottery ASAP]]></description>
      <category>goose</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reply #1</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/174793</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/174793</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2004 21:06:48 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>prob987</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[You are assuming a single winner.   The numbers are much higher if you recognize that the larger a jackpot is the greater the likelihood you will split the prize.The expectation values vary with the conditions under which the lottery is played, specifically the speed with which the jackpot rises.   I have nonetheless tracked these using the statistics associated with the probable number of winners for both Powerball and Megamillions.  Generally the expectation value exceeds a dollar in the regio... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301/174793">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>prob987</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Expected Return</title>
      <link>http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2004 19:09:23 GMT</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>KyngeRycharde</dc:creator>
      <description><![CDATA[I asked myself,  What is the minimum estimated jackpot necessary to negate the  house advantage  in a lottery game with a jackpot rollover feature?  Here is what I came up with. Raw data courtesy of johnph77's web site http://www.johnph77.com/math/stlot.htmlPowerball---$99.6 millionWild Card 2---$1.8 million*Hot Lotto---$8.3 millionMegamillions---$110.4 millionThe Pick (AZ)---$3.6 millionClassic Lotto (CT)---$5.7 millionLotto (DE)---$2.5 millionCash (KS)---$3.9 million*Tri-State Megabucks (ME, N... [&nbsp;<a href="http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/81301">More</a>&nbsp;]]]></description>
      <category>KyngeRycharde</category>
    </item>
  </channel>
</rss>