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Lottery Prediction by Recurrence Analysis

Topic closed. 170 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Raven62.

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NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
Harrogate
United Kingdom
Member #16589
June 1, 2005
107 Posts
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Posted: June 2, 2005, 12:00 am - IP Logged

Hello,

I thought I'd like to share a method I've been working on which other people might like to use or develop further themselves. It uses recurrence analysis, a non-linear mathematical method developed to analyse noisy or chaotic time-series data. It has been successfully used to study a wide range of real-world phenomena, from the stock market to cardiac arrhythmias.

It occurred to me that it might be possible to analyse and predict lottery numbers using recurrence analysis. The mathematics is quite deep, but there is an excellent program I use which does all the hard work. It's called Visual Recurrence Analysis, and the current version can be downloaded from:

http://home.netcom.com/~eugenek/download.htm

Data files used are in plain ASCII format. Note this is the shareware version, so the 'save data' function is disabled, but you can save the graphs generated and study them using MSPaint (it's all you need).

I live in the UK, so naturally I am working with the results of the UK National Lottery. The game I am currently analysing is the Thunderball draw, which uses 5 main numbers drawn from 34, and the single 'Thunderball' drawn from 14. The recurrence model parameters I am using are:

Predictor: Nearest Neighbour

Distance: Euclidean

State Space Dimension: A range of values, 10 to 20

State Space Delay: Two values, 4 and 5

I am presently trying to refine the model, namely reduce the range of Dimension values, but even with the current values I can predict two to three of the main numbers per draw. I also hope to increase the number predicted, from 2 - 3 to 3 - 4. I think 4 accurately-predicted numbers is a realistic limit.

Why does it appear to work? I think the reason is the lottery machine itself. Over time, the physical parameters of the draw machine - its shape, size, number of rotating paddles, etc - determines how the balls move, ultimately imposing a degree of predictability on them. The patterns in the numbers reflect the underlying physics of what's going on inside the draw machine. A different design of lottery machine would impose a different pattern, but one which would still be amenable to recurrence analysis (you would simply need a different set of recurrence model values). The fact that the UK lottery employs more than one machine is not really a problem. They are all the same design, and so behave in the same way. It's effectively like using a single machine.

What originally led me to think lottery numbers could even be predicted? The book 'The Eudaemonic Pie' (also published as 'The Newtonian Casino') recounts the true story of how a group of American physics students developed a set of Newtonian equations to predict the path of a ball on a roulette wheel. The equations worked with up to 44% accuracy. Of course, there is a higher degree of randomness involved in the lottery (more balls, more complex behaviour), but I believe enough predictability is imposed by the draw machines to make prediction possible.

There are some questions I have yet to answer satisfactorily. Does analysing results by row or by column give better predictions? Similarly, should lottery results be analysed in numerical order, or by the order in which the balls were actually drawn? (at the moment I am using numerical order). Is there a theoretical limit to the number of balls which can be accurately predicted? (I said earlier that 4 might be a practical limit).

I am not claiming recurrence analysis is the perfect method for lottery prediction, but I do consider it to be the best (the only people who seem to get rich from commercial lottery predictor programs are the people who write them), simply because it is tailor-made for non-linear dynamical systems.

    Bluegrass's avatar - nw archer.jpg
    Louisville, KY
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    Posted: June 2, 2005, 2:03 am - IP Logged

    Thank you, please keep us updated on  your results, very refreshing to see a different view and Welcome to Lottery Post !  Bob/bg

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      Posted: June 2, 2005, 2:56 am - IP Logged

      Your link was no good, but I did find the software and it's very interesting as you said.  Any info you can give on the software (in laymen terms) is appreciated.  Like you said 4 numbers may be realistic and it could also be profitable in my lottery of 5/39 numbers.

        hosni's avatar - hosni
        Escondido, CA
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        December 31, 2001
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        Posted: June 2, 2005, 8:18 am - IP Logged



        Your link was no good, but I did find the software and it's very interesting as you said.  Any info you can give on the software (in laymen terms) is appreciated.  Like you said 4 numbers may be realistic and it could also be profitable in my lottery of 5/39 numbers.





        Link can be accessed with adding an l (el) at the end of the link. Here it is. Very interesting concept.

        http://home.netcom.com/~eugenek/download.html

              Platinum John in cool Escondido, California

         

        Retired Grumman Aerospace Corporation F-14 Tomcat AVIONICS Field Engineer Extraordinaire

          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
          Chief Bottle Washer
          New Jersey
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          Posted: June 2, 2005, 8:22 am - IP Logged

          NemeSys, is that your web site?  If not, do you know the author, or did you just happen to come across it?

           

          Check the State Lottery Report Card
          What grade did your lottery earn?

           

          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

            hosni's avatar - hosni
            Escondido, CA
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            Posted: June 2, 2005, 8:33 am - IP Logged



            NemeSys, is that your web site?  If not, do you know the author, or did you just happen to come across it?



            Yo Todd, The About VRA states: 

            "My name is Eugene Kononov, I am a 36-year-old software engineer living in West Springfield, Massachusetts. I am originally from Russia, and I’ve lived in the U.S. since 1993. I am currently working as a Java Developer for MassMutual in Springfiled, MA. I graduated from Western New England College in 1997 with a B.S. in Computer Science (with honors)."

            Retired Grumman Aerospace Corporation F-14 Tomcat AVIONICS Field Engineer Extraordinaire

              NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
              Harrogate
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              Posted: June 2, 2005, 8:53 am - IP Logged

              Thank you for correcting the link. Todd, I found VRA when I was just surfing, looking for interesting maths software. There are many sites now about non-linear dynamics, I'll post the ones I use along with my latest results soon.

                atlasshrugged's avatar - candle
                Alaska
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                Posted: June 2, 2005, 11:32 am - IP Logged

                I have actually used a technique similar to this for picking the GA Fantasy 5 numbers. On May 23, 2002 the numbers which fell were 07-09-14-20-32. I used a website on infospace to get most of these numbers. This site listed combinations of two numbers which fell together often as well as triple numbers which fell often. I used that months draws to come up with the combination of 20 and 32. Then from there I checked which triple numbers came along with that set to get the 07 and 09. These numbers not only fall with 20 and 32 but they also fall together a good bit. In fact, they fell in last nights Fantasy 5 draw. Unfortunately for my last number I picked 18. This is my birthday number. So there was no analysis involved for the 18. I was just about ready to go ahead and buy all combinations with 07-09-20-32 but for some reason I didn't do it. I have hit several times for the 4 out of 5 and 3 out of 5 using this same method. Unfortunately the site that listed these combinations died so I haven't even hit 3 out of 5 for about 2 years now. I have looked all over the web for something like it but have had no luck. I would love to download this software but alas our computer uses Linux and I don't have the technical know how to build a spread sheet that would do this. Alas! -Bonnie

                  txpolo's avatar - animaniacs16

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                  Posted: June 2, 2005, 11:37 am - IP Logged

                  Eugene, can this software be used

                  for the Pick-3.

                  Thanks

                   BananaWTG all Winner$. Hyper

                   

                   

                    Avatar

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                    Posted: June 2, 2005, 11:40 am - IP Logged

                    hi great info, have managed to download the vra file, and found very interesting, i also do the uk lotteries as well, but i am having a spot of bother trying to get the info you have. could you in plain english, as i am a dunce where computers are concerned tell me what i enter and where precisely...without being rude!! thanks for the help....

                      retxx's avatar - mrthumbs
                      BOSTON
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                      Posted: June 2, 2005, 1:58 pm - IP Logged

                      I agree also need to know how and where to enter data and results to read. Maybe Eugene can help us. Thanks

                        Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                        Wisconsin
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                        Posted: June 2, 2005, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

                        Thank you for correcting the link. Todd, I found VRA when I was just surfing, looking for interesting maths software. There are many sites now about non-linear dynamics, I'll post the ones I use along with my latest results soon.

                        NemeSys,

                        Sounds like VRA is designed for use on physical probabilites. (Yes/ NO ?) Like roulette balls, lottery balls, etc.  Here in the USA we have a different and increasingly irritating (and spreading) problem in that the Lotteries are going more and more to the use of Random Number Generators (computer RNG) to pick the numbers.....would this not negate VRA?

                        ============

                        How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                        Answer: His lips are moving.

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                          Tx
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                          Posted: June 2, 2005, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

                          I agree also need to know how and where to enter data and results to read. Maybe Eugene can help us. Thanks

                          I do believe that it would be nice to have the info if possible or at least a hint or two !

                          I have not taken a look at the program yet.

                          BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                          "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                            NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
                            Harrogate
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                            Posted: June 2, 2005, 8:46 pm - IP Logged

                            Hello all. First, I am not Eugene Kononov, I just use the program he wrote. To load a data file into VRA click on 'File', then 'Open signal', then specify 'all types' in the load menu. Data must be in the form of a plain ASCII file (spaces and line breaks between numbers make no difference). VRA has an extensive help section, but if anyone wants a UK lottery file I can e-mail them.

                            Okay, here are the main sites I refer to (all links have been tested and are current):

                            http://archives.math.utk.edu/topics/nonlinearDynamics.html
                            http://richter.colorado.edu/seth-mcginnis-thesis/node15.html
                            http://www.recurrence-plot.tk/  <- Has some excellent examples of recurrence plots and how to interpret them
                            http://www.cbi.dongnocchi.it/glossary/RecurrencePlot.html
                            http://www.cbi.dongnocchi.it/glossary/Glossary.html
                            http://mathworld.wolfram.com/
                            http://www.maximumedge.com/dir/Science/Math/Software/
                            http://www.national-lottery.co.uk
                            http://www.jcwchan.clara.co.uk/lottery.htm

                            This last site has a downloadable file of the UK lottery results in Excel format, which is the one I use. Click on 'Click here for current draw results', then scroll down to 'Click here to download'. The password for the zip file is 'extra'. Data can be extracted from Excel files and placed in an ASCII file.

                            There are many PDF files from researchers available on the subject of recurrence analysis and plots, time series analysis, and non-linearity. I use Alta Vista to search for the latest publications.

                            Now for the results I have obtained from the UK Thunderball draw using VRA from draw 399 onwards up to the current result. It appears that the commonest parameter values so far are Dimension = 4 with Delays = 17 and 18, and Dimension = 5 with Delay = 9. The great thing about VRA is that you can go back and play with the parameters, although it does have built-in tools to help with choosing them (click on the 'Analysis' tab, then 'General Nonlinear Analysis'). What I have done is gone back over previous results, and then searched forwards for the parameters which predict successive draws ("postdicting" rather than predicting). Occasionally the model predicts fewer than two numbers, so I discount these to prevent skewing the more meaningful results.

                            Regarding electronic RNGs, yes, they would defeat recurrence analysis because it was developed with primarily physical systems in mind (with the possible exception of the stock exchange).

                              JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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                              Posted: June 2, 2005, 8:56 pm - IP Logged

                              Hi all,

                                I downloaded the program and found there was no place to create a new data file. Perhaps you can after the $199 registation fee.

                                I really wonder if repitition of a time dependent phase space is really applicable to a supposedly random event like a lottery draw. I think it's a stretch at best. Of course, if the results showed it, via the prediction pages here, I would become a believer.

                                After not being able to use the program, I started doing web serches for the math element it utilizes. I really enjoyed discovering math approches that I was previous unfamiliar with.

                               

                              You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                              Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                                 
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