The 2 Low-2 Skip StrategyPrev TopicNext Topic

• WSN1

  

  Anywhere & Everywhere
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  Feb 13, 2007, 2:54 pm

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  In response to cps10

  Quote: Originally posted by cps10 on Feb 13, 2007

  dK

  I like how you are approaching this...both options sound very viable. I will take a look at all of this as soon as I have some time. Very busy at work today...and well, my Tar Heels are on the tube tonight, so I may not get much done tonight either. But I will look at this a little closer and then analyze my state to see where we can go with this.

  Thanks, Fantastic!
• cps10

  

  The Carolinas - Charlotte
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  Feb 19, 2007, 10:58 pm

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  Here is the progression with straights:

   

  Draw	#s	Bet/Unit	Units	Bet	If Loss	If Win
  1	375	$375.00	1	$375.00	($375.00)	$525.00
  2	375	$375.00	1	$375.00	($750.00)	$150.00
  3	375	$375.00	2	$750.00	($1,500.00)	$300.00
  4	375	$375.00	3	$1,125.00	($2,625.00)	$75.00
  5	375	$375.00	6	$2,250.00	($4,875.00)	$525.00
  6	375	$375.00	10	$3,750.00	($8,625.00)	$375.00

   

   

  Here is the progression for boxed:

   

  Draw	SGL #s	Bet/Unit	Units	SGL Bet	DBL #s	Bet/Unit	Units	DBL Bet	TPL #s	Bet/Unit	Units	TPB Bet	If Loss	SGL Win	DBL Win
  1	50	$50.00	1	$50.00	25	$25.00	1	$25.00	0	$0.00	0	$0.00	($75.00)	$75.00	$225.00
  2	50	$50.00	2	$100.00	25	$25.00	1	$25.00	0	$0.00	0	$0.00	($200.00)	$100.00	$100.00
  3	50	$50.00	3	$150.00	25	$25.00	2	$50.00	0	$0.00	0	$0.00	($400.00)	$50.00	$200.00
  4	50	$50.00	5	$250.00	25	$25.00	3	$75.00	0	$0.00	0	$0.00	($725.00)	$25.00	$175.00
  5	50	$50.00	9	$450.00	25	$25.00	5	$125.00	0	$0.00	0	$0.00	($1,300.00)	$50.00	$200.00
  6	50	$50.00	16	$800.00	25	$25.00	8	$200.00	0	$0.00	0	$0.00	($2,300.00)	$100.00	$100.00

  The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

  
• cps10

  

  The Carolinas - Charlotte
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  Feb 19, 2007, 11:10 pm

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  Of course this is online play. I like the waiting 6 skips and playing a 4-step progression best. I know there aren't too many opportunities, but the risk of playing 4-steps with 0 through 4 skips is quite risky. Especially with an 18-skip max. I also think you should wait until there is a win until you are able to play again. And 18-skip cycle would be 4 complete bust-outs...which could be quite expensive.

  The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

  
• WSN1

  

  Anywhere & Everywhere
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  Feb 20, 2007, 4:25 am

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  Thanks for the follow-up! 

  Keith, using your progression chart & procedures all the way through for the
  0 skip and the 6 skip after a 4 step, we lose big time and both at about the same amount of lose.
  In order for the method to have a change using the progression, you must follow
  the progression til the strategy hits, otherwise, if you stop on a progression loss
  you will have a significant negative to erase to get back to the black, because
  a 4 step progression loss is $725 fixed but a average win is $90.50, with a $1 bet. see below:

  Progression Average Win for a Single & Double with the strategy
  Note: Singles will typically hit 3 to 1 over a double,
  therefore we can make the following assumptions with your progression chart:
  Step 1 = Single=75x3 & Double=225x1=112.50 avg
  Step 2 = Single=100x3 & Double=100x1=100.00 avg
  Step 3 = Single=50x3 & Double=200x1=87.50 avg
  Step 4 = Single=25x3 & Double=175x1=62.50 avg
  Step 5 = same as Step 3
  Step 6 = same as Step 2
  Overall avg for ea of 4 step =  90.50
  Overall avg for ea of 6 step =  91.66
  So a Win =$90.50 avg. and a Loss=$725fixed

  With these assumptions using your progression chart, let's take another look
  at the TX Midday results:
  TX Midday    
  Serie                    Times    Cur. skip  Av. skip  Math Av skip  Max skip
  Bx. Mostly Low Singles 415          3        2.33         3.33          18
  Last 99 skips    
    3  1  0  2  2  0  0  11  2  1  1  2  11  7  5  2  0  2  18 
  0  2  12  0  2  2  0  2  6  2  0  1  3  0  1  0  0  1  0  3  0 
  10  4  2  0  0  2  1  2  4  0  2  3  2  4  0  9  3  1  0  3  0 
  7  0  10  0  0  2  1  3  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
  5  0  8  11  1  0  9  0  1  3  0  1  3  0  3  1  0    

  1st suggestion (4steps after 6skips or skip 5), we would start playing when the skip is 5 and stop at skip 8 in each case,
  Therefore, in the above history we will have 6 wins and 9 losses
  or 6x90.50 minus 9x725 = 543 - 6525 = (5,982)
    3  1  0  2  2  0  0  11  2  1  1  2  11  7  5  2  0  2  18 
  0  2  12  0  2  2  0  2  6  2  0  1  3  0  1  0  0  1  0  3  0 
  10  4  2  0  0  2  1  2  4  0  2  3  2  4  0  9  3  1  0  3  0 
  7  0  10  0  0  2  1  3  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
  5  0  8  11  1  0  9  0  1  3  0  1  3  0  3  1  0 

  2nd suggestion (4steps after win or skip 0), we would start playing when the skip is 0 and stop at skip 3 in each case,
  Therefore, in the above history we will have 81 wins and 18 losses
  or 81x90.50 minus 18x725 = 7290 - 13050 = (5,760)
    3  1  0  2  2  0  0  11  2  1  1  2  11  7  5  2  0  2  18 
  0  2  12  0  2  2  0  2  6  2  0  1  3  0  1  0  0  1  0  3  0 
  10  4  2  0  0  2  1  2  4  0  2  3  2  4  0  9  3  1  0  3  0 
  7  0  10  0  0  2  1  3  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
  5  0  8  11  1  0  9  0  1  3  0  1  3  0  3  1  0 

  To make either scenario, profitable as stated previously, we would have to follow through each progression,
  til it hit, then in that case the 4step after 6skips is the best scenario, however that becomes extremely
  expensive and unrealistic even though you get a profit. Under the current conditions, it would not be nearly
  as expensive but over the history of this game we would have about a $6,000 loss.

  I hope this analysis makes sense. If I have misunderstood something or done something incorrectly with my evaluation,
  please correct me. Otherwise, what can we do to salvage this method realistically.

  This looks very disappointing and skeptical for other 50/50 scenarios, if there is an extended skip cycle.
  I guess the only way to do it, check the max skip, set your bankroll to handle the longest skip, which in
  this case is 18skips, start play at skip 5 or 6 and at .25 per bet or whatever, and play progressively through, til each hit. If you agree with my final assessment, then what would we have to spend at .25 online after 18 skips to get that max out hit? That's a progression 12 steps..

  dK
• cps10

  

  The Carolinas - Charlotte
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  Feb 20, 2007, 9:02 am

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  That is just it dK...we are looking at having to play these ONLY when the Max Out comes across, kind of along the same lines as WIN D's overdue numbers. That is the only way that it can work itself out. Even if the max is 18, you are probably looking at no more than a couple of draws before it hits.

  But even so, the 6-skip start wouldn't be bad. I would be more inclined to see it at a 7-skip start, which is 3 times the mathematical average of 2.33.

  The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

  
• WSN1

  

  Anywhere & Everywhere
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  Feb 20, 2007, 1:22 pm

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  Thanks Keith!