Lottery winner followed careful spending plan

Feb 28, 2007, 10:12 am (59 comments)

After the Big Win

How one lucky winner spent his new-found fortune

Brad Duke, 34, a manager for five Gold's Gym franchises in Idaho, pocketed a lump sum of $85 million after winning a $220 million Powerball jackpot in 2005. He spent the first month of his new life assembling a team of financial advisors.

His goal: to use his winnings to become a billionaire. Here's what Duke has done with his money so far.

  • $45 million: Safe, low-risk investments such as municipal bonds
  • $35 million: Aggressive investments like oil and gas and real estate
  • $1.3 million: A family foundation
  • $63,000: A trip to Tahiti with 17 friends
  • $125,000: Mortgage retired on his 1,400-square-foot house
  • $18,000: Student-loan repayment
  • $65,000: New bicycles, including a $12,000 BMC road bike
  • $14,500: A used black VW Jetta
  • $12,000: Annual gift to each family member

Did you often buy lottery tickets or was this a one-time thing?

I played the lottery often when I won. I had developed a little numbering system. Since I've won, there's been a lot of numbering systems for lotteries all over the Internet. Before that, there weren't any. I really thought I was going to win. I even wrote it down in my journal in 2002.

How did you develop your system?

How to choose my lottery numbers started through a trial and error process. I just started playing number games with myself about how to capture the most diverse numbers. Then I looked at the most recent Powerball numbers over the last six months and took the set of 15 numbers that were most commonly coming up. My Powerball numbers were going to be those 15. So I starting messing around with it, and my number games got a little more complex and a little bigger. I was starting to win smaller amounts like $150 and $500.

So many lottery winners have sad endings. Did you worry about that?

I've always handled responsibility well. If you accept that check, you accept an amazing responsibility to yourself and whomever you decide to include in it. I was quiet about winning for a month before I decided to come out. During that time, I was getting as much research as I could on existing lottery winners and what their stories were. Most of them lose all the money within a short amount of time. I'm looking at statistics where people in ten years have nothing. In ten years, I wanted to be worth about ten times as much. I think a lot of people who play the lottery are people who live on hope.

What was your first major purchase?

A trip to Tahiti for me and 17 of my friends. At the same time, I paid off my mortgage and student loans. [What was your biggest purchase?] The family foundation was the biggest allotment of money. $1.3 million.

What else did you do with your money?

I wanted to make the most of the opportunity that was given to me, so I put together a team with the intent to reach and maintain a $1 billion status over a particular period of time. I wanted to do it in 10 years, which I knew was aggressive. My team talked me into looking at 15 years. But it looks like we're on track for 12 years. When you do something like that, the more you become worth, the quicker your growth curve is. My total net worth right now is at an unofficial value of $128 to $130 million. We've done very well for the first year and a half.

Brad Duke won a $220 million powerball jackpot in 2005.What about a big new house or a fancy new car?

I guess I'm more worried about spending time on my investments and helping my consulting company along and doing fun things with my family and friends. I will have a new home and a great car at some point, but just not now. The great thing about the lottery was that I get to experience amazing things with people I care about. I started up a consulting company and am employing some people that helped me along the way with my employment. I took my family on a cruise.

You had to have treated yourself to something.

I bought bicycles. I'm probably own upward of 17 bikes. I also bought a 2002 Jetta. I gave my 2005 Jetta to my nephew. So it's the exact same car except for his is white and mine is black.

You had a newer car that you gave to your nephew and you bought an older car?

That's correct. I wanted a black VW Jetta with a black interior. Believe it or not, those are really hard to find. I went to the local dealership and had them track one down for me. They had to go to Texas to get it. It fit my bicycle rack really well.

What happened to your job at Gold's Gym?

I still teach a spinning class there twice a week. I took some time off after the whole thing because everybody had investment opportunities that were the greatest thing since sliced bread, and there were 100 of them every day. So I had to get out of there for a while, but when I went back, the people I'd been teaching for the last 8 years were still the same people, and I was still the same instructor.

Have you given money to members of your family?

One of the first things I did was give everyone in my family the maximum amount without tax consequence. I have all of my nieces' and nephews' college funds set up, and they're set. And there's no debt for anyone anymore. Everybody is happy.

Are you happier since you¹ve won the money?

Absolutely. When it comes down to it, I get to do the things professionally that I've always wanted to do. I get to invent a piece of equipment that I've always been thinking about doing. I get to give back to some people that have given to me over years.

Biggest U.S. lottery jackpots

1. $365,000,000, 2/2006, Powerball
2. $363,000,000, 5/2000, The Big Game
3. $340,000,000, 11/2005, Powerball
4. $331,000,000, 4/2002, The Big Game
5. $315,000,000, 11/2005, Mega Millions

Fortune

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JAG331

He's been the Anti-Jack so far.  Will it continue?

I would've bought a couple of flashy new cars by now, but I think bikes are more his style.

Bradly_60's avatarBradly_60

Awesome story.  Will help me out a lot when I win MM on this jackpot run....haha.

It is not to often you hear about huge lottery winners actually making sane choices and telling the rest of the world about it.

Brad

gocart1's avatargocart1

his plan sounds good.hope i get the chance to use this same plan friday night with mega millions.good luck to all my LP friends

pumpi76

What's happening with all these lottery winners that are certain they are going to win...It is not the first time i hear people say "they knew they were going to win the lotto"...I am glad for him because this is the first time i hear a guy say he had a system he used for the Powerball...

Anyone knows who are te winners of those 5 Powerball and Big Game's biggest Jackpot ever...I already know Whitaker...

In the movie "Swordfish" the terrorist (john travolta) tells the hacker (hugh jackman) that 100 or 300 (i can't remember the exact amount) running interest for 15 years amounts to 9 & 1/2 Billion dollars..(I don't know if is true)...

I am glad for him, this guy knows what he wants and has a plan (well he is a manager after all)...Wonder how he is going to avoid people knowing about it...

 

 

"Laura Simpson from Great Lakes, Illinois deserves to be rich......."                   "She is so rare...."

Prob988

Quote: Originally posted by pumpi76 on Feb 28, 2007

What's happening with all these lottery winners that are certain they are going to win...It is not the first time i hear people say "they knew they were going to win the lotto"...I am glad for him because this is the first time i hear a guy say he had a system he used for the Powerball...

Anyone knows who are te winners of those 5 Powerball and Big Game's biggest Jackpot ever...I already know Whitaker...

In the movie "Swordfish" the terrorist (john travolta) tells the hacker (hugh jackman) that 100 or 300 (i can't remember the exact amount) running interest for 15 years amounts to 9 & 1/2 Billion dollars..(I don't know if is true)...

I am glad for him, this guy knows what he wants and has a plan (well he is a manager after all)...Wonder how he is going to avoid people knowing about it...

 

 

"Laura Simpson from Great Lakes, Illinois deserves to be rich......."                   "She is so rare...."

His representation that he had a system - and no doubt he did - doesn't mean the system worked.   

The ticket he purchased had a finite probability of winning, no matter how he picked the numbers.

JAG331

Quote: Originally posted by Prob988 on Feb 28, 2007

His representation that he had a system - and no doubt he did - doesn't mean the system worked.   

The ticket he purchased had a finite probability of winning, no matter how he picked the numbers.

I agree.  It's virtually impossible to "prove" that a system works unless you have repeated trials and verifiable results.

CA LotteryGuy

If he really had a system, what faster way to increase your money and become a billionaire than to play the system.  There have been quite a few large Powerball Jackpots since he won in May 2005 and I didn't see his system win these drawings. 

Also, his boast of having a system and saying that when he won there were no systems on the internet and now they are all over the place (as if his win was the catalyst for systems coming of age) rings a litle hollow.

With all that said, congratulations to him for winning!

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by JAG331 on Feb 28, 2007

I agree.  It's virtually impossible to "prove" that a system works unless you have repeated trials and verifiable results.

Winning a jackpot is all the verification he needs.  For all those players coming to LP and asking "has anyone ever won anything using a system?", they have their answer from a jackpot winner and an explanation of how he did it.  As he said, as he messed around with his system he would win a little until he eventually won the big one, most systems don't do that in a life time and his did it once.  If he wins big again it wouldn't prove his system works to most people but just that he's lucky and greedy.

DoubleDown

What a refreshing change from the negative press that we see so often with large JP winners.

He has a plan and he sticks with it.  Very, Very smart !!!!!

spy153's avatarspy153

12,000. annual payment to family members.

wasn't there a girl on here yesterday that said that, and then said it was a homework assignment? HMMMMMMMMMMMM!

konane's avatarkonane

Quote: Originally posted by DoubleDown on Feb 28, 2007

What a refreshing change from the negative press that we see so often with large JP winners.

He has a plan and he sticks with it.  Very, Very smart !!!!!

I Agree!   Hats off to him!!!

pumpi76

Quote: Originally posted by JAG331 on Feb 28, 2007

I agree.  It's virtually impossible to "prove" that a system works unless you have repeated trials and verifiable results.

What is more important:

a) a system that wins you 4of 6's and 5of 6's every draw but never wins you the jackpot or

b) a system that wins you 0 dollars every draw but wins you 200 million jackpot every 300 draws or for that matter every 400 draws...

 

It only takes 1 time to win the lottery, only ONe time...YOu could have played the numbers for 5 years without success, but is that One time that matters, that makes all the different, just hope that the jackpot is more than 50 million when you win it...

You don't need verifiable results for your system to work, it just need to win you the jackpot that one time...His system works because it won him the jackpot and a very large jackpot too...

 

 

 "Laura Simpson from Great Lakes, Illinois deserves to be rich..."           "She is so rare...."

CA LotteryGuy

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Feb 28, 2007

Winning a jackpot is all the verification he needs.  For all those players coming to LP and asking "has anyone ever won anything using a system?", they have their answer from a jackpot winner and an explanation of how he did it.  As he said, as he messed around with his system he would win a little until he eventually won the big one, most systems don't do that in a life time and his did it once.  If he wins big again it wouldn't prove his system works to most people but just that he's lucky and greedy.

From my standpoint if a system only generates one big win then it is LUCK!!!!

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by CA LotteryGuy on Feb 28, 2007

From my standpoint if a system only generates one big win then it is LUCK!!!!

From most people standpoint winning a lottery jackpot is "LUCK!" no matter how it's done, winning one more than once is "LUCKIER!".

CA LotteryGuy

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Feb 28, 2007

From most people standpoint winning a lottery jackpot is "LUCK!" no matter how it's done, winning one more than once is "LUCKIER!".

I will settle for "LUCK".

justxploring's avatarjustxploring

Okay, so far nobody has asked this question, so I will.  Why would he want his photo published at this point?  Would you want a story written about you after you finally settled down?  The reason I am mentioning it, is because anonymity has been a subject for discussion continuously on this board.

Regarding the system, many people say they've used systems for years and then they win one quick pick. A system can be anything numbers at all. I mean, how many times have we read "I just thought of some numbers" or "I used the ages of my children?"  I agree with CALotteryguy that having a system and then winning, doesn't really mean his system had anything to do with his good fortune.

I'm happy for this man and hope he continues to live responsibly.  Personally, I would have skipped the $63,000 party, but it's not my money! 

DoubleDown

Quote: Originally posted by justxploring on Feb 28, 2007

Okay, so far nobody has asked this question, so I will.  Why would he want his photo published at this point?  Would you want a story written about you after you finally settled down?  The reason I am mentioning it, is because anonymity has been a subject for discussion continuously on this board.

Regarding the system, many people say they've used systems for years and then they win one quick pick. A system can be anything numbers at all. I mean, how many times have we read "I just thought of some numbers" or "I used the ages of my children?"  I agree with CALotteryguy that having a system and then winning, doesn't really mean his system had anything to do with his good fortune.

I'm happy for this man and hope he continues to live responsibly.  Personally, I would have skipped the $63,000 party, but it's not my money! 

Excellent Points..

I don't know about the party either , but I would not be driving a 2002 Jetta...

He needs to realize he is a security risk... a kidnapping target.

I would opt for a urban assault vehicle ( SUV ) with bulletproof windows and doors at the very least.

LuckyLilly's avatarLuckyLilly

HMMMMMMMMMMMM! is right.  lol  Wonder if her last name is really Duke?

CA LotteryGuy

Quote: Originally posted by justxploring on Feb 28, 2007

Okay, so far nobody has asked this question, so I will.  Why would he want his photo published at this point?  Would you want a story written about you after you finally settled down?  The reason I am mentioning it, is because anonymity has been a subject for discussion continuously on this board.

Regarding the system, many people say they've used systems for years and then they win one quick pick. A system can be anything numbers at all. I mean, how many times have we read "I just thought of some numbers" or "I used the ages of my children?"  I agree with CALotteryguy that having a system and then winning, doesn't really mean his system had anything to do with his good fortune.

I'm happy for this man and hope he continues to live responsibly.  Personally, I would have skipped the $63,000 party, but it's not my money! 

justxploring...great question!  Particuarly as this article was published in Fortune which has a nationwide distribution.  Good for him that he won.  To me it sounds like this guy has a bit of an ego, not that there is anything wrong with that.  He wants for prople to know he won with his system, before systems were readily avaiable on the internet.  Also he wants to turn his $88 million into a billion.  Seems a little much, but it is his money to do as he pleases.

For me it would be lie low as long as possible and don't attract any attention, even a year or two later.  Share the good fortune with those close to you.  Resist the temptation to tell others how good your life has become since winning the lottery.  Make life a little better for others by donating some of the winnings to charities.

KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Feb 28, 2007

Winning a jackpot is all the verification he needs.  For all those players coming to LP and asking "has anyone ever won anything using a system?", they have their answer from a jackpot winner and an explanation of how he did it.  As he said, as he messed around with his system he would win a little until he eventually won the big one, most systems don't do that in a life time and his did it once.  If he wins big again it wouldn't prove his system works to most people but just that he's lucky and greedy.

Winning a jackpot doesn't do anything to prove a system worked. That his "system" lead him to choose the numbers that won is obviously a good thing for him, but that's no different than saying QP's are the best strategy because most winners used them.  If 3% of players are named Fred then about 3% of winners will be named Fred, but nobody thinks that changing their name will increase their chances of winning. If 25% of players pick their numbers using a system then 25% of winners will have used a system. Even if somebody wins two or three times with numbers they got from a system it still can't prove the system works.  There are enough people playing the lottery that winning twice has happened and will continue to happen. There are enough players using systems that we should expect system players to win twice just based on simple probability. The best anyone will ever be able to do is show that somebody using a system has had results that are extremely unlikely. It will always be extremely unlikely to win the lottery twice, but several people have already done it.

s5thomps's avatars5thomps

Sounds like he haves his stuff together, I was just watching THS (The curse of the lottery) and I watched how David Edwards who won the powerball in 2002 let the money change him. What people don't seem to understand is that you do not need expensive automobiles and a big house to prove your worth. Will Smith who is an actor and multi-millionaire had a very intresting quote his father told him. "It's nice to have 50 cars, But you sure don't need them because you can only drive one at a time!" To often people who win jackpots are not equiped on how to deal that kind of money. That being said people are much more than just the amount of money you have in your portfolio. Mr. Duke haves a good plan in place but anything over 100 million and you are just dealing with apples and oranges anway. Cogratulations to Mr. Duke and God Bless!

                                                                                                       Sun Smiley

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by justxploring on Feb 28, 2007

Okay, so far nobody has asked this question, so I will.  Why would he want his photo published at this point?  Would you want a story written about you after you finally settled down?  The reason I am mentioning it, is because anonymity has been a subject for discussion continuously on this board.

Regarding the system, many people say they've used systems for years and then they win one quick pick. A system can be anything numbers at all. I mean, how many times have we read "I just thought of some numbers" or "I used the ages of my children?"  I agree with CALotteryguy that having a system and then winning, doesn't really mean his system had anything to do with his good fortune.

I'm happy for this man and hope he continues to live responsibly.  Personally, I would have skipped the $63,000 party, but it's not my money! 

His story and picture probably started out as a local story in a his hometown paper where everyone already knew of his good fortunes and probably knew him too.  The problem with allowing a local paper to do a story about him was most home town papers are owned by big companies that publish globally and his story could end up anywhere in the world. 

People have to understand what their local news paper knows about them can be world news.

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Feb 28, 2007

Winning a jackpot doesn't do anything to prove a system worked. That his "system" lead him to choose the numbers that won is obviously a good thing for him, but that's no different than saying QP's are the best strategy because most winners used them.  If 3% of players are named Fred then about 3% of winners will be named Fred, but nobody thinks that changing their name will increase their chances of winning. If 25% of players pick their numbers using a system then 25% of winners will have used a system. Even if somebody wins two or three times with numbers they got from a system it still can't prove the system works.  There are enough people playing the lottery that winning twice has happened and will continue to happen. There are enough players using systems that we should expect system players to win twice just based on simple probability. The best anyone will ever be able to do is show that somebody using a system has had results that are extremely unlikely. It will always be extremely unlikely to win the lottery twice, but several people have already done it.

I Agree! But if you're filling out play slips to play a lottery then your numbers have to come from somewhere, he just explained how he picked his, not how anyone else should pick theirs.  Losers can say anything they want about picking numbers ,who cares 'cause everybody want to hear what a winner is saying even if he's saying he picks his numbers from where the sun don't shine.

MissNYC's avatarMissNYC

Quote: Originally posted by pumpi76 on Feb 28, 2007

What's happening with all these lottery winners that are certain they are going to win...It is not the first time i hear people say "they knew they were going to win the lotto"...I am glad for him because this is the first time i hear a guy say he had a system he used for the Powerball...

Anyone knows who are te winners of those 5 Powerball and Big Game's biggest Jackpot ever...I already know Whitaker...

In the movie "Swordfish" the terrorist (john travolta) tells the hacker (hugh jackman) that 100 or 300 (i can't remember the exact amount) running interest for 15 years amounts to 9 & 1/2 Billion dollars..(I don't know if is true)...

I am glad for him, this guy knows what he wants and has a plan (well he is a manager after all)...Wonder how he is going to avoid people knowing about it...

 

 

"Laura Simpson from Great Lakes, Illinois deserves to be rich......."                   "She is so rare...."

I Know! I saw the E True Hollywood Story on Lotto winners, and this girl told her boyfriend after she bought her ticket that she was going to win the lottery, and won the California Super Lotto (about 90 mil), then this other guy, who ended up in trouble, also said he had a feeling and checked his numbers shortly after the drawing. It's strange, but I wonder how true. I wonder if these people REALLY wanted to won and confused their want with knowing, especially after they got luck and won. I think it all boils down to luck and what prayers God decides he'll answer. If anyone's ever watched Bruce Almighty, when he's God and says yes to all prayers, there's like 100 lottery winners. I wonder how much that would ring true. All said, good luck to everyone!

justxploring's avatarjustxploring

Oy!  I hate it when I go back and see I made a bunch of typos, but at least everyone got the gist of what I was trying to say! 

I think big "ego" is correct, CAlotteryguy.  There's nothing wrong with trying to make even more money and getting the word out is one way to attract investors (and scam artists too!)  I know what RJOh wrote is true, but the picture looks like one of those posed glamour shots. Doesn't it look like a college graduation picture?

DoubleDown, definitely agree.  However, he's probably taken precautions to guard his safety. A Jetta is a nice, reliable car that holds its value, and he's doing the environment a favor by riding a bicycle too.  However, if he likes Volkswagens so much, I'd spend $23K more and get the Touareg and spend "only" $40,000 on the Tahitian party. Again, it's not my money.  Either I don't have enough friends or I'm too cheap, but I don't think I could ever spend that kind of dough on a vacation, although I know that people spend 6 figures on weddings all the time.

justxploring's avatarjustxploring

This has nothing to do with the lottery, but I thought some people might find this interesting..at least people around here were surprised.  I just thought of it since we were talking about using old photos. (sorry, but my mind has its own segue system)

My birthday is in March so I received a notice that my driver's license needs to be renewed. In FL your license is replaced every 6 years. (I get a new registration sticker annually by ordering it online or by phone.)  My neighbor went up to the DMV and had to take an eye test and got her photo snapped.  I just took the notice I received in the mail and got online, using the web address on the card.  I typed the confirmation code provided and paid my fee online with a credit card.  2 weeks later I got a new style license with all sorts of holograms and it has my old photo from March 2001 in 2 places and my signature.  I never realized that, when they took my picture 6 years ago, they kept it on file in a database.  Maybe this isn't new, but I was surprised. So that's the way to get your license and registration if you don't want to fight traffic or stand in line.

More good news is that the picture is now 6 years old and in 6 more years (exp date on the new license is Mar 2013) I'll be 12 years older than I was when it was taken!!  LOL

LckyLary

I remember the Wests in Oregon won the 340 million Pb and the 363 BG was two winners. I also notice the 5 top jackpots never got close to or over 400M. The only way that happens is on this Mega if it keeps going it might make it this time.. but on Pb it is harder to because of the Roll-down rule after a record is reached and also because once a record is reached the News is all over it and the "Fever" kicks in, and with that usually you find a winner the next drawing or the one after.

I am wondering about the system he says he used, 15 frequent #s off the top...   Here's a Science project for you, try to backtest from when he won, could you have won the same way?

MADDOG10's avatarMADDOG10

After reading this story, I find that whatever this man has said about a system that "HE" had used to win is probably true, after all he did "WIN". And it wasn't a quick-pick. As far as I'm concerned, he has done exactly what he started out to do, which was to win the Lottery. He had a plan in effect long before he won, and he has stuck with his other plan to enhance his winnings to a different level. Kudos to him. Great story amongst others whom have failed.

Why even try to backtest because his comma's may be your periods, or vice-versa, one would never be able to prove his actions to a "T" and have the same effect. Besides the "Proof" is already in the pudding.

cajunken

wow!what a nice guy

DoubleDown

Quote: Originally posted by justxploring on Feb 28, 2007

This has nothing to do with the lottery, but I thought some people might find this interesting..at least people around here were surprised.  I just thought of it since we were talking about using old photos. (sorry, but my mind has its own segue system)

My birthday is in March so I received a notice that my driver's license needs to be renewed. In FL your license is replaced every 6 years. (I get a new registration sticker annually by ordering it online or by phone.)  My neighbor went up to the DMV and had to take an eye test and got her photo snapped.  I just took the notice I received in the mail and got online, using the web address on the card.  I typed the confirmation code provided and paid my fee online with a credit card.  2 weeks later I got a new style license with all sorts of holograms and it has my old photo from March 2001 in 2 places and my signature.  I never realized that, when they took my picture 6 years ago, they kept it on file in a database.  Maybe this isn't new, but I was surprised. So that's the way to get your license and registration if you don't want to fight traffic or stand in line.

More good news is that the picture is now 6 years old and in 6 more years (exp date on the new license is Mar 2013) I'll be 12 years older than I was when it was taken!!  LOL

Good little segue, JXP---The picture thing just shows that as we get older, we look the same, so they save the expense and time of taking a new one.

But I bet you have not aged at all in those 6 years !!!

I KNOW I haven't ...  LOL

twisted's avatartwisted

I have a question.  What kind of a system was it where he had to play the same set of numbers for 3 years?  Is that a system at all?  Well it doesn't really matter at this point.  System or luck, he won it either way.

But this is a great story.  The man is doing exactly what he wanted.  Who are we to judge and criticize what he has done with his money?  Someone will always criticize the way we handle THE WIN (if we ever won).  The guy is on his way to achieve the goal he set for himself and has helped others along the way.  His family is debt free.  His nephews' and nieces' don't have to worry about how they will pay for college.  His family members also get $12,000 a year.  Simply GREAT.  It would have been hard to be cool and composed after the win (he tried to remain anonymous) and think everything through about the future.  Congrats to him.

doctortalk

hi all,   I Just registered to make a post and hope many more to come.   This story spoke to me because I'm also an avid cyclist.  A 11K bike is a bit much though, Mine costs 11h  and it's more than enough.  It seems the guy rides bikes for the fitness, not because of the environment.   He owns gyms and does a spinning class.  

 

Number picks/predictions ads are amazing, i can't imagine anyone paying money for them.  there is a free site I refer to and it offers picks on the last six months draws, i've only seen it hit 4 of six on the regular lottery out of 18 different numbers.   Guess it depends on how the numbers fall.   

Jill34786's avatarJill34786

  • >>$45 million: Safe, low-risk investments such as municipal bonds<<
  • >>$35 million: Aggressive investments like oil and gas and real estate<<
  • "My total net worth right now is at an unofficial value of $128 to $130 million. We've done very well for the first year and a half."

     

    First of all, I am happy that he won and has chosen a wise path to grow his assets but to reach $1 Billion net worth in 12 years, his assets have to grow at a rate of 24% (net after taxes) annually.

    I have a hard time believing his portfolio has grown to $128-$130 million in just a year and a half. Not to be too critical but I have broken down what his current asset allocation would have had to grow to achieve this number. 

    Low risk investments such as municipal bonds currently return 2-3% tax free, let's go ahead and just say 3% to make it simple.

    $45-million @ 3% for 1.5 years compounded annually=$47,050,000

    This means that his $35 million investment in gas, oil, real estate would have to have grown like this:

    Basis: $35 million, 230% return in 1.5 years= $80.5 million, factor in 35% fed tax($29.18 million) and 7.7% Idaho state tax($6.19 million) 

    $80.5 million minus $29.18 million/$6.19 million= $45,130,000 in gains

     

    $45,000,000 basis on muni bonds

    ($  2,050,000 return on bonds)

    $35,000,000 basis for aggressive investments

    ($45,130,000 net gains from investments)

     

    Net total from all investments = $127.18 million

    Add in all other assets and his stated net worth reaches $128-$130 million

     

    I'm sorry but a return of 15-20% for the past year and a half would have been a lot more believable than a whopping 230% return in the same time frame.

    YeeHaw's avatarYeeHaw

          This whole thing stinks to me.  I remember when this guy won.  I even went back and read his Powerball winner's story to see if it changed.    He used " a series of numbers he's been playing for years".   I find it hard to believe neither he or his publicist mentioned his system???

    This reads like a press release for his lottery system.

    ochoop17

    He got his money . Now we can get our.

    Over 267 millions in MEGA MILLION$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    Appearing this friday on your favorite lottery station!!

    DoubleDown

    Quote: Originally posted by Jill34786 on Mar 1, 2007

  • >>$45 million: Safe, low-risk investments such as municipal bonds<<
  • >>$35 million: Aggressive investments like oil and gas and real estate<<
  • "My total net worth right now is at an unofficial value of $128 to $130 million. We've done very well for the first year and a half."

     

    First of all, I am happy that he won and has chosen a wise path to grow his assets but to reach $1 Billion net worth in 12 years, his assets have to grow at a rate of 24% (net after taxes) annually.

    I have a hard time believing his portfolio has grown to $128-$130 million in just a year and a half. Not to be too critical but I have broken down what his current asset allocation would have had to grow to achieve this number. 

    Low risk investments such as municipal bonds currently return 2-3% tax free, let's go ahead and just say 3% to make it simple.

    $45-million @ 3% for 1.5 years compounded annually=$47,050,000

    This means that his $35 million investment in gas, oil, real estate would have to have grown like this:

    Basis: $35 million, 230% return in 1.5 years= $80.5 million, factor in 35% fed tax($29.18 million) and 7.7% Idaho state tax($6.19 million) 

    $80.5 million minus $29.18 million/$6.19 million= $45,130,000 in gains

     

    $45,000,000 basis on muni bonds

    ($  2,050,000 return on bonds)

    $35,000,000 basis for aggressive investments

    ($45,130,000 net gains from investments)

     

    Net total from all investments = $127.18 million

    Add in all other assets and his stated net worth reaches $128-$130 million

     

    I'm sorry but a return of 15-20% for the past year and a half would have been a lot more believable than a whopping 230% return in the same time frame.

    Welcome to the post, Jill34786 !!

     

    I knew someone would figure out this thing. Thanks for the insight...

    DD

    KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd


    I'm with Jill. I think everything this guy says needs to be taken with more than just a grain of salt. Let's start with what he really started with. The cash value was about $125 million. The top brackets for federal and Idaho income tax were 35 and 7.8%, so unless he had some serious deductions almost all of that $125 million would have been taxed  at a total of 42.7%. The remaining 57.2% of $125 million would only be $71.5 million. He could have made charitable contributions that would lower the tax bill enormously, but that would still reduce his net. He may have gotten a check for $85 million after the mandatory withholdings, but I don't see how he'd net much over $72 million.

    Even if he did start with $85 million, Jill is about right about the return on his investments. Even allowing for not paying taxes until he cashes out, putting $45 million into a safe investment is unlikely to  yield more than $50 million, so he's claiming that  $35 million grew to about $80 million in a little better than a year and a half. Allowing 21 months, it would take an annual return of 60% to increase $35 million to $80 million. That's possible but fairly unlikely unless he was stupid enough and lucky enough to put it all into just 1 or 2 things that  happened to do really well. While there's a chance that he could continue to see overall returns  thathigh and have his billion dollars in 10 or 12 years, taking that kind of risk is also a great way to lose most of the money he has in aggressive investments.

    Some of his story sounds like he's a  level headed guy who  isn't likely to get into real trouble, but it also sounds to me like the guy has some sort of agenda he's working on and step one is to pile it pretty deep. 

    LckyLary

    The thing I need to figure out is what algorithm he used. He hinted that he took the 15 numbers that came out the most in the last 6 months, which is a very basic frequency count, and maybe he used one of those balanced wheeling systems, as even with his system you would face huge odds to match 5 out of 15 plus the bonus (? out of ?)...

    I grabbed an old data file from 2005 and tossed in a special PB loader into my big program and tested for that drawing. It was 39-24-05-28-07 Powerball: 36. The only high numbers were the 05 and 07, the other 3 blend in with many others. The 05 & 07 also came out in a recent previous drawing at that time. I will endeavor to determine how the other numbers were predicted, including the Bonus Ball, and hopefully I can apply it for Saturday. I invite any of you to do the same and compare notes.

    Finally.. his joy comes almost entirely from how much money he can accumulate. This is fine for him but if it were me I'd have picked Annuity and put 1/2 in safe investments each year and the other (up to) 1/2 to enjoy or to invest some of that more aggressively. it would be like hitting a 10M lottery every year for 26 years! I'd like to know also how he assembled a financial team, are these from a corporation or just his smart friends? (he could have asked the advice of Hillary Clinton, she turned $1000 into $100,000 or something like that!)

    IF one really wanted to give someone a large amount w/o limit all they would need to do is leave it in your SUV in a briefcase and tell them where it's parked!

    SirMetro's avatarSirMetro

    Quote: Originally posted by Jill34786 on Mar 1, 2007

  • >>$45 million: Safe, low-risk investments such as municipal bonds<<
  • >>$35 million: Aggressive investments like oil and gas and real estate<<
  • "My total net worth right now is at an unofficial value of $128 to $130 million. We've done very well for the first year and a half."

     

    First of all, I am happy that he won and has chosen a wise path to grow his assets but to reach $1 Billion net worth in 12 years, his assets have to grow at a rate of 24% (net after taxes) annually.

    I have a hard time believing his portfolio has grown to $128-$130 million in just a year and a half. Not to be too critical but I have broken down what his current asset allocation would have had to grow to achieve this number. 

    Low risk investments such as municipal bonds currently return 2-3% tax free, let's go ahead and just say 3% to make it simple.

    $45-million @ 3% for 1.5 years compounded annually=$47,050,000

    This means that his $35 million investment in gas, oil, real estate would have to have grown like this:

    Basis: $35 million, 230% return in 1.5 years= $80.5 million, factor in 35% fed tax($29.18 million) and 7.7% Idaho state tax($6.19 million) 

    $80.5 million minus $29.18 million/$6.19 million= $45,130,000 in gains

     

    $45,000,000 basis on muni bonds

    ($  2,050,000 return on bonds)

    $35,000,000 basis for aggressive investments

    ($45,130,000 net gains from investments)

     

    Net total from all investments = $127.18 million

    Add in all other assets and his stated net worth reaches $128-$130 million

     

    I'm sorry but a return of 15-20% for the past year and a half would have been a lot more believable than a whopping 230% return in the same time frame.

    I think you overlooked one very powerful form of investing when considering "aggresive" style investments. This is commonly referred to as Hedge or Option trading.

    Option trading (Hedge funds are a bit more complex, but use similiar concepts) are a powerful tool in one's investment technique to rapidly increase one's value. A simplistic example would be this, you purchase 100 shares of a stock for $10 per share. Then you sell a Call Option of $15 for $1 per share (profit of 10% spread over 3 months). Now, if the stock value does NOT reach $15 by the end of the option life, you get to repeat the process up to 4 times a year. Now, your pulling off a whopping 40% annual return (even higher if the stock price continues to increase during the year) from your original investment

    $1,000 <-- Initial Value of 100 shares of stock at $10 Share

    1st trade  $100 <-- Value of 1 Stock Option (100 shares at $1 per share)
    2nd trade  $100 <-- Value of 1 Stock Option (100 shares at $1 per share)
    3rd trade  $100 <-- Value of 1 Stock Option (100 shares at $1 per share)

    Stock value increases to $15 or so a share

    4th trade  $150 <-- Value of 1 Stock Option (100 shares at $1.50 per share)

    Net Annual is $450 for a whopping return of 45%, not allowing for dividends or increased value of the stock

    Now, the stocks he doesn't option trade with will reduce his annual overall return down to the low to mid 20% range. So, you see, his idealistic goal is very feasible. Also, if he has the right kind of trust account setup, the taxes are deferred.

    And, just in case you were wondering, about 15 years ago (just prior to me making a lot of really stupid financial life decisions) I had transfered my 401k monies from a Company I was working for to a Stock IRA account. The monies initially transferred was $14,800 (and some change, dont recall the exact figure). Over the period of one year, I generated well over $17,000 from that money (and yes again, due to a lot of really stupid and probably inappropiate decisions, I have none of it now) utilizing the method I just illustrated above. Had I had more monies available at the time, I think I could have had even greater returns because I would have had a larger pool to work from.

    All said and done, in the end, the right approach to investment and the proper management, one could easily double their value over a short period of time. And as I like to say, an open mind does lead to some interesting oppurtunities.

    Sir Metro

    CCHS13's avatarCCHS13

    Nice story.  I have a question for anyone out there that can answer.

    How in the hell can one pay all of those taxes at the time of winning

    and still be taxed depending on how much money one chooses to give away

    What is going on in this country?  You cant do what you want with your money

    even after you have paid the "income tax" ?   

    Jill34786's avatarJill34786

    Thanks for the welcome DD.

    I had occassionally peeked my head in on this forum in the past couple years but just recently decided to sign on.Smiley

    Jill34786's avatarJill34786

    Hi Metro,

    I understand what you're implying as I also trade options using a variety of strategies. I allocate roughly 10% of my assets toward options as I feel it is inline with most seasoned traders.

    Obviously, if someone were to start trading with something in the $25k range than that allocation may very well be 50% if not more.

    I just can't see this MM winner investing most of his $35 million in options, perhaps $3 million but that would still be an incredibly large amount. Let's assume that even if he had a hedge position such as a front month strangle on Diamond trust (DIA) even purchasing 500 contracts of the Mar 123 call/121 put which were selling for $1.20/$1.05 respectively this morning, that itself would "only" be an investment of $112,500 before commissions.

    25 position similar to that would yield a cost of roughly $3 million which would be fine if the open position is liquid but there are many thinly traded options that rarely exceed volumes of 1000 contracts or more.

    While it is certainly attainable to achieve annual returns of 1000-2000% trading options, those are usually in the minority with total assets under $100k.

    If Brad Duke's portfolio continues to grow at it's current rate (net 62% every 1.5 years) he would be worth in excess of $473 Billion by age 59!Eek

     

    Jill

    justxploring's avatarjustxploring

    Quote: Originally posted by CCHS13 on Mar 2, 2007

    Nice story.  I have a question for anyone out there that can answer.

    How in the hell can one pay all of those taxes at the time of winning

    and still be taxed depending on how much money one chooses to give away

    What is going on in this country?  You cant do what you want with your money

    even after you have paid the "income tax" ?   

    If you type "Gift Tax" in a search engine, you'll see lots of articles on this same subject.  In fact, if you use the Search feature on this board and type the words "gift" and "tax" you'll also find lots of interesting comments like yours.  The IRS site defines what can be considered a tax exempt gift.

    I totally agree with you, not only about the gift tax but the inheritance tax.  Forget the lottery for a minute. Say you work hard your whole life and put away money to give your children and grandchildren a better life.  You die and leave $5 million and, even though you always paid your income and property taxes, your heirs have to pay taxes on what you had left when you died.  (which is why it really should be called a "death tax")   That's why it is so important for people of means to make sure their estate has been well managed.  Not only money is taxed, but any property or items of value.  Once you reach the maximum lifetime gift level, you can pay as much as 45% additional gift tax above & beyond your income tax.  (It was even more a few years ago, but has been decreasing.)

    There are lots of ways to get around the $12,000 annual limit without cheating, however.  A savvy estate planner or attorney should be able to offer valuable advice. So to answer your question - No, you can't just do what you want with your money.

    Jill34786's avatarJill34786

    Just for kicks, I crunched the numbers in the event  Brad Duke were to allocate 100% toward aggressive investments which has already returned 230% in the past year and a half.

    Within 9 years, he would be worth in excess of $167 Billion while reaching $25.714 Trillion by the age of 59.  That would certainly make both Bill Gates and Warren Buffett seem inferior.

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