Preakness - Rick G, MADDOG10, et alPrevious TopicNext Topic

Anyone up for handicapping for the Preakness?  How bout ya MADDOG10, Rick G, and tiggs95?

Although racing is not my thing, I sometimes take a look at the big races with the ole man and try to do a little handicapping of my own, with a little help from the pros (Like you guys RG and MD).

I don't have all my pics yet, but if you guys are game let's get started!

OK dbello...let's give it a shot.

I have # 7 Big Brown (1/2) on top no matter what angle I look at it from.  He will win this race, barring injury or poor racing luck.  However he's not facing a bunch of chumps and he has twelve to beat.  I have his fair odds at 4/1.  (His fair odds in the Derby were 3/1.)  The morning line has him at 1/2 which is probably pretty close to closing odds.  But that's a severe underlay and not a smart bet.

So let's look for some gimmick opportunities...My second choice is # 11 Giant Moon (30/1).  This guy will be setting a blistering pace and has the stamina to stay till the end.  # 12 Gayego (8/1) ran poorly in the Derby but is a fast horse and should be forgiven that performance.

I'll go with a 7-11-12 exacta and trifecta box on those three.

Good luck everyone!

Going with two different tickets:

1.  Big Brown   Perfecta 7/12

     Gayego

2.  Big Brown  Perfecta 7/3

     Icabad Crane

I choose not to go for a trifecta when I can can choose the right two.

Didn't see your post because I was posting at the same time Rick!  On ticket 1 I'm going with Gayego because he could have performed better had he not had a slow start and the jockey pulled back to a trot.  I like some others but I aree that Big Bown without a doubt should be the winner, barring any unforseeable circumstances. 

My suggestion is to box your exactas and tri's involving Big Brown.  All combos with him on top will be overbet and conversely the combinations with him on the bottom will be underbet.  Although it is risky betting Big Brown in any position other than first, the rewards will be worth it if he doesn't hit the wire first.  I imagine one of the most popular bets today will be a 7/all exacta. 

PS to debello.....I see that you used the word perfecta instead of exacta.  In Chicago racing the bet used to be called a perfecta...I was wondering if you grew up in the Chicago area.

Hey thanks for the help Rick.  I like that 7/all - never thought of that but then again I am a novice at this.  No did not grow up in Chicago - Alabama - the Bible Belt.  But I have long lived in Michigan where we call it a perfecta in some circles as well.  Again Rick, thanks for responding and adding a little excitement to the race today for me.

PS I also like Racecar Rhapsody's stats - just don't know where I would place him so your 7/all  fits in well with that.

Here's the way it will go down to the wire.

My tips say 7/3/13 (PP's)

Just noticed #5 post position has been scratched.

I see a few of you like Icabad Crane so I took a closer look at him.  He has killer late speed but will be at the back of the pack on the backstretch.  He will have many lengths to make up entering the final turn for home.

Here's a little track bias stuff:

In the 48 dirt routes run at Pimlico this meet, 27% of the winners went wire to wire.

The winners average beaten lengths at the half mile have been 2.7 lengths and at the six furlong mark, 1.6 lengths.

Horses with a Sustained running style (such as Icabad Crane) have been winning 39% less races than normal.

With that being said, Icabad has his work cut out for him to win the race.  However he looks like a solid contender to steal the place or show spot at the wire.

hey now Rick G,

i don't know a thing about the races.  i did have the priviliage of goin' 2 the derby.  big brown came out of gate #20, in Libra Dave's moon ingress (mystical forum) that day, i went with the pairs off the column based on the date.  02=20 was a pair.  yesterday i found out that big brown was coming out of gate # 7 and i looked at the pairs again, 16 was a pair, which L Dave told me to add the two digits together, so as i said i don't know a thing about the horses nor betting, i went with all the moon ingress and the vtrac numbers and won.  the most i know about a race is what i just read that u just put in the forum.  u get a chance look at this link.  i don't know what horse is named what other than big brown, 7-2-4-6 so these are my numbers.  thanks! ;-)

http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/174199/4

If the moon is paired with the time, ICABAB Crane wins

Second is Tres Caballeros.

ducksafloat, whatever works for you, go for it.  As long as you have the 7 included, it's a wide open race with the others.  You never know....

Applying things you've learned from LP playing the lottery is a good way to play exactas, tri's and supers.

These are interesting concepts you guys are floating around with the moon stuff...we'll see how they fare against regular handicapping.

We're headed to the casino shorly, but I'm sure all the big screens will be on the Preakness.  Still going for #7 to win and 12 to be in the top three.  That #6 horse still bugs me though.  Good luck everybody!

PS - Placing our bets at the local track before we go!