When is something considered 'Hot'?Previous TopicNext Topic

Hi Ricky:

The term "hot" is what we would call a fuzzy logic term. A fuzzy logic term requires a "home made" definition, since there's no unique way to define the term. We all know what"equal" means. Given any two numbers we can immediately discern whether they are equal or not. Suppose we invent a new term, "almost equal". What does it mean when we say that A is "almost equal" to B? We'd have to come up with a home brewed definition of what "almost equal" means to answer the question. One such definition may be:  A is almost  equal to B if the absolute difference between A and B does not exceed 1. There are a myriad of ways we could give a definition to "almost equal".

As in the "almost equal" case, the same goes for the term "hot", with respect to short sums. I'd be inclined to base my definition of "hot" on expected value. So, for example, based on the last 50 draws each short sum has an expected number, N, of occurences.  For a given sum, if the number of occurences exceeded N by some number M, then that sum would be considered hot. What you are asking for is: Exactly what value should M have?  One way to answer the question is to try different values ( 3, 4, 5, 6 etc) and choose the one that would have led to making the largest profit over those past 50 draws. The bottom line is that no matter which method you choose to give a measure to "hot", it will most likely not function well as a global measure. That is, what "hot" means  in Texas, may only turn out to be what "warm" is in Connecticut(assuming you came up with a definition for warm).

Regards,

jayemmar

Hi jayemmar,

thanks for your response.

I have posted this question here on LP because i wanted to see what people would write about it.
Taking all the responses together and find some kind of "common ground".
Surely everyone must have their own opinion on the subject.

As it is now, a person that is used to play the pick 3 game, and takes a look at the statistics of a given item, can tell in a split second "oh, that item looks hot".
That is great, but i want to dig a little deeper here, and ask that person, "okay, can you tell why it seems hot to you, in detail, please?", or, "why does it fit the situation hot for you?".
Most people see a car driving by and say "WAW!!! what a great car!!!". And when you ask them, "why is that a great car", they think and think and can not come up with a reason, except "well, the looks of it feel great".

That is great for them, but of no value when projecting that into a larger model of "when does the looks of a car make you go WAW!!!?"

cheers
Ricky

Hi Chaz,

exactly, that is exactly what i am trying to find out, a general concensus, usable for the majority of people.

cheers
Ricky

btw, to have so many pick3 players visiting LP, there are very, very few responses to this queest lol

It's a response from the subconscience: Consciencely one can't put their finger on any one thing that makes the car great, because it's a composite of many factors at the subconscience level.

well determine what "hot" little bit "tough" since there are only digit 0 to 9 in perimeter.

here are some simple stats for FL Cash 3

and hot numbers would be 2 since reach skip 4 in 200 skip history (using last 720 draws) it shown 23 times or a quick looking compare hit with skip count, looking above chart for skip count it seem "hot" numbers are numbers that in last two draws eg: 358 .1

from above chart hot number are

259 since it shown repeated or double indicate by 0 and 147 and for next draws number 1 or 4 will be appears

also if there are cloudy stats we might use bridge from digit string 3/4/5/6 "all for one and one for hit" lol

good luck

Ricky:

Have you ever considered the use of neural networks in your quest to come up with an indicator for what is "hot"?  Neural networks are known to mimic the human brain.

jayemmar

well i dunno if this "stats" help to understand what hot...? below stats for ontario pick 3 last 720 draws

found any way to define what hot?? x71  271  771 for next draws??

good luck

It was already said, but anything that happens more often that what the law of statistics says that it should can be taken as being hot, so let statistics define what is what, what might need a definition is how hot something is, in the same way, something that happens less often that it should is cold.

People don't have standard definitions of degrees of temperature in regard to lottery events.

What hot and cold are is not too hard to define.

Personally, I do not know when a short sum root is hot or cold unless you see it in recent patterns. This problem with using a method like this is that you will lose much more than you will win. But, If you would like to know what filters I use to get an idea of what "Might" come out, I filter the day of the week, the draw (mid/eve), and the odd day or even day. I set it up this way in my spread sheet.

Whatever works for you, a filter is a filter anything that helps to predict or reduce is.

LotSoft is very good software.

But for example, it would be nice if it had a way of entering past draws in a way such as Lotto Sorcerer has it is very nice and automatic, almost, you still have to enter the draw with the enter key.

Draws should be automaticaly entered after you enter the third digit for that draw and the date should have automatic advance as some lottery programs have, each state could have a profile of what days of the week it holds draws for each particular game so it woiuld know how to advance the draw date after you input the draws, that is the one single thing that LotSoft does not do so well.

Of course, some visual kinds of stats other than the ones that it already has, would make the program better for some or many people.

I find visual stats of as much help as the numbers stats, as to the filtered wheeler it is very good, but it still does not have a few filters that some even very older software has, including more suport for pairs filters.

I also didn't see the Tx pick 4 yet added to it, the online automatic update of the draws on the demo trial version didn't add Tx to the pick 4.

That was version 3.5.0.

I almost forgot, compound filters it has none of them, even Chaz and Bob use them.