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The Illinois Halloween Raffle

Topic closed. 29 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Rowen.

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New Member
Chicago, IL
United States
Member #80641
October 1, 2009
11 Posts
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Posted: October 1, 2009, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

I am considering buying a couple of these raffle tickets. Yet, I am a little hesitant because the odds of winning anything at all are 1:982. Do you guys think thats a bad bet?

    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
    -Ridge Runner- Oracle of the Appalachians
    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
    United States
    Member #73904
    April 28, 2009
    14903 Posts
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    Posted: October 2, 2009, 1:44 am - IP Logged

    I am considering buying a couple of these raffle tickets. Yet, I am a little hesitant because the odds of winning anything at all are 1:982. Do you guys think thats a bad bet?

    The odds are that way because there are no small prizes. You either win a big prize or nothing at all. 

    There are 4 one million dollar prizes.

    Five $100,000 prizes.

    And 500 $1,000 prizes.

    There will only be 500,000 tickets sold.

    Sounds like it's worth a shot to me.

    Good luck!


                                                 
                         
                                             

     

     

     

     

                                                                                                       

    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

     

     

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
      United States
      Member #30470
      January 17, 2006
      8939 Posts
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      Posted: October 2, 2009, 1:51 am - IP Logged

      From the Illinois lottery website:

      Your Best Shot at a Million!

      Since only 500,000 tickets will be sold, your odds of winning a million dollars have never been better!

      • 4 Prizes of $1,000,000, odds are 1 in 125,000!
      • 5 prizes of $100,000 each, odds are 1 in 100,000!
      • 500 prizes of $1,000 each, odds of 1 in 1000!

      THAT’S 509 TOTAL AVAILABLE PRIZES WITH OVERALL ODDS OF 1 IN 982!

      ________________________________________________________

      I look at it this way, 500,000 tickets will be sold, and by the rules above, 509 prizes will be won. Let's see, 500,000 and 509. So, when the raffle is over, let's imagine two stacks of tickets, winners and losers.

      Hmm. 509 winners and 499, 491 losers. Gee, which stack is my ticket most likely to wind up n?

      I know the raffles are the "best chance" at winning $1,000,000, but "relative to the buy in", are they? If there was a number game with a $20 price tag would you play it?

      I bought one ticket for the first Illinois raffle and was off by over 1,500 numbers in either direction. Whivh is probably exactly what's supposed to happen.

      Good luck to anyone who plays but I think the raffles are just another gold mine for the lotteries and not a good deal for the players at all. Like I said, 509 winners and 499,491 losers.


      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
        -Ridge Runner- Oracle of the Appalachians
        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
        United States
        Member #73904
        April 28, 2009
        14903 Posts
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        Posted: October 2, 2009, 2:17 am - IP Logged

        From the Illinois lottery website:

        Your Best Shot at a Million!

        Since only 500,000 tickets will be sold, your odds of winning a million dollars have never been better!

        • 4 Prizes of $1,000,000, odds are 1 in 125,000!
        • 5 prizes of $100,000 each, odds are 1 in 100,000!
        • 500 prizes of $1,000 each, odds of 1 in 1000!

        THAT’S 509 TOTAL AVAILABLE PRIZES WITH OVERALL ODDS OF 1 IN 982!

        ________________________________________________________

        I look at it this way, 500,000 tickets will be sold, and by the rules above, 509 prizes will be won. Let's see, 500,000 and 509. So, when the raffle is over, let's imagine two stacks of tickets, winners and losers.

        Hmm. 509 winners and 499, 491 losers. Gee, which stack is my ticket most likely to wind up n?

        I know the raffles are the "best chance" at winning $1,000,000, but "relative to the buy in", are they? If there was a number game with a $20 price tag would you play it?

        I bought one ticket for the first Illinois raffle and was off by over 1,500 numbers in either direction. Whivh is probably exactly what's supposed to happen.

        Good luck to anyone who plays but I think the raffles are just another gold mine for the lotteries and not a good deal for the players at all. Like I said, 509 winners and 499,491 losers.


        Man, I was feeling pretty good for a while there Coin Toss! Then you had to come up with all them dad blame facts and figures!

        I got somebody getting me a ticket up there and now I'm gonna... well... have another shot of Jack I guess.

        Seriously though, the way I see it, it's a lot better shot at a million than $20 put on any other game, right?


                                                     
                             
                                                 

         

         

         

         

                                                                                                           

        "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                    --Edmund Burke

         

         

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          Illinois
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          Member #80376
          September 25, 2009
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          Posted: October 2, 2009, 4:16 am - IP Logged

          does it  have better chance at a million than scratchers?  i think so.

           

          I don't know if IL  20-dollar cards have a scratching chance of 1 in even a million at  $1,000,000

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            New Member
            Berwyn, IL
            United States
            Member #80665
            October 2, 2009
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            Posted: October 2, 2009, 10:47 am - IP Logged

            Hello everyone. First time poster, long time lurker. I’ve played the Illinois raffle games for a couple years and never won anything. What’s interesting and frustrating at the same time is checking your raffle number when the winning numbers come out. Every time I played I’ve been off at least by a thousand in either direction. And that is for a $1,000 prize. Say my raffle number was 10,000. The closest winning numbers would be 9000 and 11,000. So I could have bought 2000 tickets at $20 a pop for a total of $40,000 and maybe win a grand. I’ve been off by many thousands pertaining to the bigger prizes.

            My brilliant strategy is to buy two or three tickets over the course of a couple weeks. It seems like the $100,000 and $1,000,000 prizes are won in the 20,000 to 250,000 range, typically. Its still a stretch, of course, but its not like you have to go nuts trying to get the first few or the very last tickets. The Illinois Lottery website posts the number of tickets remaining. As of this writing, there are 475,739 tickets remaining, so I’ll buy a ticket today and maybe two next week.

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
              United States
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              January 17, 2006
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              Posted: October 2, 2009, 2:44 pm - IP Logged

              Here's somethinng else to think about. At a $20 buy in even if you win $1,000,000 each of those twenty dollards has won $50,000 compared to a $1 lottery ticket that wins even $2,000,000 at the jackpot start point for a Pick 6 state lottery.

              If you win $100,000 each of your dollars has wom $5,000 - a Pick 4 straight pay off in Illinois, and if you win $1,000 each buck won $50.

              All that is, of course, if your ticket is one of the 509 winners and not one of the 499,491 losers.

              Raffles are a good exercise in hype marketing but a bad deal for the players.

              500,000 tickets, 509 winners.

              That's a "batting average" of 0.001018 of wining players.

              I don't mind buying the governor a cup of coffee but he can buy his own scotch.

              The Illinois Lottery would like you to know if you don't want to go through the formaily of playing a raffle ticket, just send $20 to

              Gov. Pat Quinn

              The Capitol Building

              Springfield, ILlinois

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                Avatar
                Illinois
                United States
                Member #80376
                September 25, 2009
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                Posted: October 2, 2009, 3:32 pm - IP Logged

                Hello everyone. First time poster, long time lurker. I’ve played the Illinois raffle games for a couple years and never won anything. What’s interesting and frustrating at the same time is checking your raffle number when the winning numbers come out. Every time I played I’ve been off at least by a thousand in either direction. And that is for a $1,000 prize. Say my raffle number was 10,000. The closest winning numbers would be 9000 and 11,000. So I could have bought 2000 tickets at $20 a pop for a total of $40,000 and maybe win a grand. I’ve been off by many thousands pertaining to the bigger prizes.

                My brilliant strategy is to buy two or three tickets over the course of a couple weeks. It seems like the $100,000 and $1,000,000 prizes are won in the 20,000 to 250,000 range, typically. Its still a stretch, of course, but its not like you have to go nuts trying to get the first few or the very last tickets. The Illinois Lottery website posts the number of tickets remaining. As of this writing, there are 475,739 tickets remaining, so I’ll buy a ticket today and maybe two next week.

                 ”It seems like the $100,000 and $1,000,000 prizes are won in the 20,000 to 250,000 range“

                how to you know?   if true, it narrows down the range.  how do you know most would  fall in that range, any theory?   it's then not truly random    or  is it?

                  Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                  Chief Bottle Washer
                  New Jersey
                  United States
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                  May 31, 2000
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                  Posted: October 2, 2009, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

                  I am considering buying a couple of these raffle tickets. Yet, I am a little hesitant because the odds of winning anything at all are 1:982. Do you guys think thats a bad bet?

                  Raffles are awesome, go for it!  They are not created for people who like small prizes less than $10, so if that's you I would avoid it.  However, if you're looking for a much better shot at a big prize, raffles are perfect.

                   

                  Check the State Lottery Report Card
                  What grade did your lottery earn?

                   

                  Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                  Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                    Posted: October 2, 2009, 5:33 pm - IP Logged

                    To each their own Todd, but let me add this.

                    In Nevada when a new game goes into a casino it's given a test run to see how popular it is, etc. But if the Nevada Gaming Commission deems that the game has too much of a house advantage over the player, out it goes.

                    I'm wondering how they would treat one of these raffles, if they had a lottery.

                    On the lighter side, it's really ironic that so many here at LP that are "anti-quick pick" can't wait to buy a $20 serial numbered raffle ticket. I know the raffle has little to do with number selection, but it's still ironic.

                    Good Luck all.

                    Lep

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                      Avatar
                      New Member
                      Berwyn, IL
                      United States
                      Member #80665
                      October 2, 2009
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                      Posted: October 2, 2009, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

                      The Illinois Lottery posts all the winning numbers. I just made a mental note of it.

                        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                        Chief Bottle Washer
                        New Jersey
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                        Posted: October 2, 2009, 6:57 pm - IP Logged

                        To each their own Todd, but let me add this.

                        In Nevada when a new game goes into a casino it's given a test run to see how popular it is, etc. But if the Nevada Gaming Commission deems that the game has too much of a house advantage over the player, out it goes.

                        I'm wondering how they would treat one of these raffles, if they had a lottery.

                        On the lighter side, it's really ironic that so many here at LP that are "anti-quick pick" can't wait to buy a $20 serial numbered raffle ticket. I know the raffle has little to do with number selection, but it's still ironic.

                        Good Luck all.

                        Lep

                        I hope you did not think I was answering your post.  In fact, at the time I wrote my message I had only read the very first post in this thread and answered it directly. 

                        I'm definitely aware that there are people who don't like raffles, and I would never consider faulting anyone for their like or dislike of any game.  There are lots of different games for a good reason -- something to fit any perspective! Cheers

                         

                        Check the State Lottery Report Card
                        What grade did your lottery earn?

                         

                        Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                        Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                          four4me's avatar - gate1
                          MD
                          United States
                          Member #1701
                          June 18, 2003
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                          Posted: October 2, 2009, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

                          funny thing about raffles is about the same with scratchoffs somebody's gonna win small prizes and somebody's gonna win the big prizes and nobody knows who thats going to be until it done and over with. While the odds are enormous theres a chance that it might land in your lap.

                          It's one of those things you have to wait and see while there will be plenty of disappointed people everyone holding a winning ticket will be glad they won something.

                          Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                                         I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                            Posted: October 2, 2009, 8:36 pm - IP Logged

                            Todd,

                            True. I'm not really anti-raffle, I'm just taking a real deep look at it.

                            I just think of it as a bookie's wet dream, which it is.

                            Illinois has the population to handle a 1,000,000 ticket raffle at $10 a ticket, I just wonder why they don't.

                            Table games, slots, and Pick 5 , Pick 6, and 5 + 1 games don't have known results beforehand as far as will anyone win. Raffles do. Not who will win, but how many will win. That's a lopsided house advantage.

                            Like I said, good luck all.

                            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                            Lep

                            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                              Milwaukee, WI
                              United States
                              Member #3131
                              December 27, 2003
                              665 Posts
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                              Posted: October 4, 2009, 7:20 am - IP Logged

                              I did a little study on the risk/reward taking into account jackpot size and $20 for the raffle. The bigger the number the better...

                              I don't know how this will format on the screen...

                                                                     Powerball      MegaMillions       Raffle

                              Jackpot  (Cash)                  .055                 .450                .400

                              100K(250k MM,200KPB)    .039                .064                 .100

                              1,000Raf  10,000(MM&PB) .014                 .015               .050

                              Also take into account no smaller prizes for raffle.

                              So for the bigger prizes the raffle is much better unless the PB/MM jackpot is huge....

                              MarkP