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Playing the Statistics

1 reply. Last post 21 days ago by Coin Toss.

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Posted: November 1, 2009, 4:23 pm - IP Logged

Running some numbers through the database on GA F5 gives some interesting stats.

Got to play the percentages, just like baseball.   .333 batting average means that one out of

3 at bats gets a hit.  So if he is 0 for 2 he is probably going to get a hit at the next at bat.

But if the doesn't, he will be at 0 for 3 then 2 for 6 is expected.

The same with right handed pitchers vs right and left handed batters.

 

In GA F5, there are 56 combinations of 0s, 10s, 20s, 30s.

Numbers from 1-9, 10-19,20-29,30-39

For example

The top 4 combinations are from even distribution of the

0s, 10s, 20s, 30s and another.  They total up to 26% of all draws.

And the other 52 combinations add up to the other 75% of draws.

 

So an even distribution would have a 25% chance and

something weird or a result missing one or 2 sets of tens would yield the other 75%.

 

Here is a sampling.

combination CountOfcombination
01223 379
01123 351
00123 314
01233 281
01122 190
11223 166
00112 165
00122 162
12233 154
01133 144
00233 137
02233 136
00113 132
01222 126

 

There has not been a draw of all 30s.

 

This is a filter that I am using to figure the possibilites.

 

 

I have another query that lists the draw numbers individually, the draw dates and the number of

days prior to that date that it hit.

 

Then another query that tells me where each number is currently at.

For example, 28 has been going cold to warm.

 

drawnumber Draw Date Dayssince
28 07/10/2009 1
28 07/13/2009 3
28 07/15/2009 2
28 07/20/2009 5
28 07/24/2009 4
28 08/03/2009 10
28 08/17/2009 14
28 09/07/2009 21
28 09/10/2009 3
28 09/21/2009 11
28 09/26/2009 5
28 10/02/2009 6
28 10/19/2009 17
28 10/27/2009 8

 

I try to predict at along those lines. 

If something is getting cold, then it does not get really cold

as it hasn't before so its time is coming up.

 

Last night, it gave me 16 that I designated to play yesterday.

I only had the money to play one line.

Of the numbers that were drawn, 4 were on my list of 16.

The other was the repeat of the prior day which I didn't choose.

It's a start to try to narrow things down.

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Posted: November 1, 2009, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

bomatt

"333 batting average 3 at bats gets a hit.  So if he is 0 for 2 he is probably going to get a hit at the next at bat."

Things just aren't that consistent.

What more likely happens is the .333 hitter goes 0 for 8 in two games and then 6 for 10 in the next two games. Over the long run he's hitting .333, but it definiyly doesn't happen every game.

Assuming a .333 hitter that is 0 for 2 will get a hit the next time up is about the same as standing at a dice table and waiting for 35 rolls without a 12 and then betting on it the next roll. Nope. Might be 144 rolls without a 12 and then 4 in a row.

Also, you can't assume the batter is going to continue to be a .333 hitter.

It's Lotto, not horseshoes or artillery!
Close doesn't count!

I sell everything at a loss but make up for it in volume
- Milo Minderbinder, Catch-22

There are two kinds of jackpot winners...the ones who remained anonymous and the ones that wish they had.



 
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