PICK 4,5,6 Cracked - New System

Performing ball placement probability as people are doing here on LP is correct but only for the first ball a user selects.

When a user selects a ball it is removed from the original pool, looking at the statistics of the new pool it can then be seen that the distributions for all combinations then change.

To correctly analyse lotteries using ball placement probability you need to recalculate the distributions after any change is made to the pool.

The way people are doing it on LP is assuming the pool remains fixed even after a ball has been removed, hence the more balls a user selects the more skewed the output data becomes.

I have been away for a few days so I have not had the chance to work on this however I will shortly be producing an example that takes all factors into account to demonstrate the control and manipulation of lottery statistics using ball placement probability theory.

Jamie

This is why it has taken me just under two years to work out how to handle, the number of possible combinations involved in performing such a task, it becomes massive.

As a software developer waiting 4 hours for the machine to recalculate is not an option so I set out two years ago to create an algorithm to perform this feat and fast.

Please remember although this way of analysing lotteries is new to most of you, I have been working on this for two years. There are many things someone can do with this information if you spend the time and study it in detail.

My goal is to produce an application that can give virtually any real world statistic on an original pool of numbers and any subset of those numbers.

One by-product of my research is noticing how wheels can be created using the minimum lines, now my machine is free it has been put to work simplifying an equation for wheels, hopefully it won't take two years this time but you never know.

To accentuate the odds changing I am including an example of what really happens when a ball is removed from the original pool. 

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Pick 6 from 40 - 3,838,380 to 1

6 of 6                              1 in 3,838,380

5 of 6                              1 in 18,815.5882

4 of 6                              1 in 456.1355

3 of 6                              1 in 32.0720

2 of 6                              1 in 5.5178

Overall odds                1 in 4.658567

Remove a ball the new pool becomes

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Pick 5 from 39 - 575,757 to 1

5 of 5                              1 in 575,757

4 of 5                              1 in 3,386.8059

3 of 5                              1 in 102.6305

2 of 5                              1 in 9.6216

Overall odds                1 in 8.773975

The above is fairly simple to work out, however we are now thinking ball placement.

When a ball is removed the new pool must take into account the best odds of the final numeric position of the ball removed when all numbers are drawn.

The new pool when calculated must eliminate the ball and ball position removed to keep the statistics correct, this is where the calculations grow exponentially.

To give people a better understanding I am going to share a little more.

Thinking ball placement.

Removing a ball from a distribution knocks a hole in that distribution in the position the ball was removed from, although the last posts stats are true it does not give you a true picture, remember we are thinking ball placement probability. The new distribution must eliminate the final numeric position you have chosen for the first ball chosen and removed. So to give a true ball placement probability statistic of the next set of positions and combinations the new pool when calculated must take into account all possible combinations eliminated by removing the first ball and all possible final numeric positions eliminated.

This cannot be done in one hit for a number of reasons.

Example, let's take a pick 6 draw and perform a 3 ball placement probability analysis

1. There are 20 ways to arrange 3 balls, depending on the 3 balls selected each one of the 3 balls can be distributed in a different way and have different hit ratios for each number in the 3.
2. Eliminating one ball from the original pool of 6 knocks out many possible sub combinations and final numeric positions for the smaller sub combinations such as the 3 hit combos.
3. For the above reasons when using ball placement probability you must always start with the biggest combinations and work down the pools.

Hello Developer,

I mentioned some of this before. I don't mean to be rude, but I don't know why all the calculations you talk about are necessary.

Unless you Have to calculate in real time on the fly, I don't see why you can't do all of the calculations before hand.

If you take the lotto that you are working with and wheel all of the combinations for it. You should just be able to count how each number comes up with each other number in each position and make a ranking.

For example if the first number is no. 1 in position 1(as it has to be), then what numbers come up with it in order in position 2. Then what numbers come up with those numbers(each done seperately), and what one come up with them, until you get to the last position with number starting with no. 1.

Then rank them by quantity or math.

You move down the list of numbers until all numbers in the complete wheel are covered.

That will give you a ranked list of all numbers that can be drawn for that lotto.

Now when you take a list of numbers that you want to wheel or put together the best tickets for, all you have to do is wheel that list of numbers and compare them to your index for that lotto and save their rank. Then sort that ranking from high to low to get the best fitting ticket numbers from your list of numbers that you want to use.

I don't see any reason to do all of your calculation every time that you take a number out since all of the combinations that can be made for that lotto are known. The ranking of each combination in your lotto will stay the same. It can not, and will not change. It is a static, known quality.

Thank you,

Jerry

Curious here. What you are describing is hypergeometric distribution.

Before the drawing starts, the odds in any 5/39 game are 1 in 575757. On any one line, you have a 5 in 39 chance of hitting that first ball.

If you don't have the first ball, your odds don't improve. (Not to mention you are not going to win the big pot.)

If you match the first ball, you move on to the 4/38 category where you have a 1 in 73815 chance of hitting the second ball. (If you don't hit that, no second tier prize.)

But if you do, you move to the category 3/37 or 1 in 7770 chance of hitting three digits. And so it goes.

In my mind, hypergeometric distribution doesn't occur until you match one ball. In other words, your odds don't improve until you hit at least one ball.

I'm confused how it could be otherwise.

And from what you are saying today, every number should be checked against every other number to see which pair best in the global matrix. Unfortunately, it seemed to me that had been bypassed in charting and basing our percentage on the complete pair and triplets groupings.

What I'm hearing is ,"IF I hit this number, I now have the best possibility of hitting the next one."

This takes us back to page one where the general consensus was the best numbers and pairs do not always hit.

"I mentioned some of this before. I don't mean to be rude, but I don't know why all the calculations you talk about are necessary."

I think it's more important to prove the theory has merit before deciding if all the calculations are necessary.  If the theory has no more merit than picking numbers randomly then no amount of calculating is going to help.

Hello RJOh,

I don't disagree with you, but it is not what I was takling about.

If the implimentation of the theory is made easier, then it is easier to prove or disprove.

If the lotto that you like was indexed as I mentioned, then the past wins could be checked to see if they match the theory.

But even then, we wouldn't know it would work with smaller number groups.

Though Monte Carlo  analysis could be done for testing. 

Until then, as you say, it is just theory that sounds plausible.

Much like your own negative theory that is also unproven.

Regards,

Jerry

Spot on Garyo1954, you seem to have a good understanding of statisitics, I am not postiing all my work right now for odvious reasons, the holes you are finding are not missed in my research just in this forum for now.

This is a theory, theories need proving.

I need fully understand all possible statistics in a draw, that's where I am at now, trying to achieve full statistic analysis of any lotto to prove my hypothesis step at a time.

As you point out this route I am currently working on would require each ball to appear for the path to work. I understand that in real world results that event would be very unlikely, but it's not my goal to make a system to hit all numbers, infact I am not even making a system.... more later, don't run before you can walk so to speak.

It is necessary for me to calculate every possible path to fully understand the statistics so I can then start simplifying with the entire results.

Just to be clear on what I mean by every possible path, (6 balls - 1, 5 ball -1, 4 balls - 1, 3 balls - 1) would be a path, each set is reduced and the remaining numbers used in the next set. (millions of possibles)

Here are last weekends UK lotto results broken down displaying all possible 3 ball placements

• Draw Name: United Kingdom Lotto
• Draw Type: Pick 6 from 49
• Draw Number: 408
• Draw Date: 26 November 2011
• Winning Numbers: 13 16 25 26 36 46
• Bonus Ball: 15
• Draw Line: 11,786,210 of 13,983,816

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Key

I am currently analysing every possible combination in all draws in the above manor, the results that I am collecting are being saved and then analysed.

Once complete for all draws 3,4 and 5 ball combinations in all pick 4,5 and 6 draws I will be able to analysis wheels against the data and see what makes them work. Form this I believe I will be able to write a wheel generator that can make any wheel the user wants using the minimum lines possible and have the math to prove that fact.

I will also be able to analysis past draw data in a depth never seen before, seeking patterns and trends, applied with my LOWESS regression algorithm I believe there won't be any statistics left unturned.

Here is the 4 combo break down of last weeks uk lotto

Impressive.  Where do I get this software ?  Anyhow after a long day I just  did a substitution,subtraction,mutiplication,factor workout on a napkin at the local circle k.  I hope its a winner.  I used it for the New Mexico cash 5 and Mega Millions.  The brain cells were churning and maybe I'm a winner who knows. Peace and keep up the good work.