Handicapping The Pick 4

Hi Everyone:

Many players use some variation of the "up one up down" technique to generate their plays. Such a variation consists of picking a 4 digit number and then: adding one to each digit, subtracting one from each digit, adding one to each pair, subtracting one from each pair, and finally adding one to and subtracting one from each of the numbers in each pair. The total number of resulting selections is 32. There is some veritability to this technique, because it does produce winners at times. The question is: When is the best time to play and which 4 digit number is to be used for the key?

Consider all of the 715 boxed numbers between 0000 and 9999 and a past drawfile with N entries. We will refer to these boxed numbers as "keys".  Let's ask: By applying the up down varaition described above to each of the 715 keys, which key was able to produce the most winners found in the past drawfile(boxed or straight). This is not an easy question to answer using pencil and paper, as it would lead to quite a tedious and heuristic task. I wrote a program to perform this task and applied it to 15 days worth of past draws from the NY Pick4 - day and night games for a total of 30 past draws. I started from March 1, 2012 working back, and the draws were as follows(starting from3/1):

Here are the results for all the keys that unlocked at least one winner(boxed or straight)

0007 - 2
0016 - 1
0017 - 2
0018 - 2
0019 - 1
0027 - 2
0028 - 1
0036 - 1
0069 - 2
0078 - 2
0079 - 3
0089 - 3
0115 - 1
0117 - 1
0124 - 3
0125 - 1
0126 - 2
0135 - 3
0136 - 1
0137 - 1
0146 - 3
0155 - 2
0168 - 1
0169 - 2
0178 - 4
0179 - 3
0188 - 2
0189 - 3
0199 - 1
0223 - 2
0224 - 3
0225 - 2
0234 - 3
0236 - 2
0245 - 1
0246 - 1
0256 - 1
0268 - 1
0269 - 2
0277 - 2
0278 - 3
0279 - 4
0288 - 3
0289 - 3
0299 - 1
0336 - 1
0345 - 1
0346 - 1
0347 - 1
0348 - 1
0356 - 1
0357 - 1
0359 - 2
0367 - 2
0368 - 2
0377 - 1
0378 - 2
0379 - 1
0446 - 1
0449 - 1
0458 - 2
0467 - 1
0469 - 1
0477 - 1
0689 - 1
0699 - 1
0788 - 1
0789 - 1
0799 - 3
0889 - 1
0899 - 1
1114 - 2
1123 - 2
1124 - 2
1125 - 3
1134 - 2
1145 - 1
1147 - 1
1155 - 1
1156 - 1
1168 - 1
1169 - 1
1177 - 1
1178 - 3
1179 - 4
1188 - 2
1189 - 2
1199 - 1
1223 - 1
1224 - 3
1225 - 2
1233 - 1
1234 - 1
1235 - 2
1236 - 1
1237 - 1
1245 - 2
1246 - 3
1247 - 1
1255 - 1
1256 - 3
1257 - 1
1259 - 2
1266 - 2
1267 - 2
1268 - 3
1269 - 2
1277 - 2
1278 - 1
1279 - 5
1288 - 1
1289 - 3
1334 - 1
1335 - 1
1336 - 2
1337 - 2
1345 - 2
1346 - 1
1347 - 2
1349 - 1
1355 - 2
1356 - 3
1357 - 2
1358 - 2
1359 - 1
1368 - 3
1369 - 1
1377 - 2
1378 - 3
1379 - 3
1388 - 1
1445 - 1
1446 - 1
1447 - 1
1456 - 1
1459 - 1
1468 - 2
1469 - 1
1479 - 1
1699 - 3
1789 - 3
1799 - 3
1899 - 3
1999 - 1
2223 - 1
2224 - 1
2225 - 1
2234 - 1
2246 - 1
2249 - 1
2256 - 1
2268 - 1
2269 - 1
2277 - 1
2278 - 1
2279 - 1
2288 - 1
2336 - 2
2345 - 1
2346 - 2
2347 - 2
2356 - 2
2359 - 2
2368 - 1
2378 - 2
2379 - 1
2446 - 2
2469 - 1
2589 - 1
2599 - 1
2778 - 1
2789 - 1
2799 - 1
2899 - 1
3467 - 2
3479 - 2
3488 - 2
3489 - 2
3499 - 1
3557 - 1
3566 - 1
3567 - 1
3568 - 1
3577 - 1
3578 - 1
3579 - 2
3588 - 1
3589 - 1
3667 - 1
3669 - 1
3678 - 2
3679 - 2
3688 - 1
3689 - 3
3778 - 1
3779 - 1
3788 - 1
3789 - 1
3889 - 1
4457 - 1
4466 - 1
4468 - 1
4477 - 1
4478 - 1
4479 - 1
4488 - 1
4489 - 1
4556 - 1
4557 - 1
4566 - 1
4567 - 1
4568 - 1
4577 - 1
4578 - 2
4579 - 2
4588 - 1
4589 - 2
4599 - 1
4666 - 1
4667 - 1
4668 - 2
4677 - 1
4678 - 1
4679 - 1
4688 - 1
4689 - 1
4778 - 2
4779 - 1
4789 - 2
5567 - 1
5667 - 1
7899 - 1

The left 4 digits are those of the key and the number to the right of the dash is the number of winners unlocked by the key. For example: the key 4778 unlocked the two winners: 7397 and 6479. The up one down one scheme applied to 4778 gives:

5878, 5788, 5779, 4888, 4879, 4789, 3678, 3768, 3777, 4668, 4677, 4767, 5778, 4878, 4788, 4779, 3778, 4678, 4768, 4777, 5678, 5777, 4868, 4877, 4787, 3878, 3788, 3779, 4688, 4679, 4769

The keys that unlocked the most winners over this 15 day span are: 1279 with 5 winners and 0178,  0279, and 1179, each, with 4 winners.  There are also many keys that unlocked 3 winners, but we'll consider those that unlocked the highest and next to highest amount of winners. Now the question is: Is there enough "umpf" left in these keys to unlock another one or two winners over the next, say, five days?. Let's see.

The next 5 days worth of winners were:

3713

5530
9107
2742
5049
3040
9989
2944
3032
0331

Each of the 5 keys unlocked winners. 1279 unlocked 9107, 0178 unlocked 9107, 0279 unlocked 9107 and 1179 unlocked 9107, just after 1 days worth of plays.

It seems that  this type of anlysis can offer a powerful way to detect patterns and trends. I don't want to give the reader the impression that that this is a "pie in the sky" system, but I've run many tests, and several of them showed similar results.

The program I wrote to do the key analysis is called keyPerformance.exe. I also wrote another utility called

unlock.exe, which generates the up one down one selections when you enter a 4 digit key. I f anyone is interested in these programs they can be downloaded from:

http://uploading.com/files/a84cm385/Handicapping%2BThe%2BPick4.zip/

Installation:

1. Unzip the Handicapping The Pick4.zip file to a working folder

2. Prepare a text file of the last 30 draws(day and night - 15 days total if your circuit handles day and night Pick 4, otherwise last 30 days). Name the file drawsP4.txt and make sure it is in the folder that conatins the programs you downloaded. One entry to a line, no other characters, and latest draw on top. Therte are many different types of text editors, and unfortunately some cause havoc to a program that depends on a text file. I've used Notepad successfully, but you have to makesure that the last entry in the draw file is follwed by a carriage return.

3. Click on the program icon keyPerformance. You will see a quick flash indicating that the program finished executing. A file will be generated called keys.txt

4. Open keys.txt in a text editor and look for the top two best performing keys(see above example).

5. Click on the program icon unlock, and enter your 4 digit key when prompted. A display of all 32 selections will appear in the window. The program will keep asking you for another key, in case you want to see the selections for more than one key.

Sorry - I know there are a lot of EXCEL fans out there, but I think it would be extremely difficult to create an EXCEL program that could perform the required analysis(Winsome, what do you say?). 

That's about it. Good luck.

Comments welcomed.

jayemmar

Why would you use the 715 numbers between 0000 and 9999 as the "keys" to work off of "unlocking" future winning Pick 4 numbers, rather than the actual numbers that have been drawn in your Pick 4 game ???

Why would you use the number 1279, which generated 9107, if 1279 was not one of the Pick 4 numbers recently drawn in your state ???  The point is you would have no way of logically guessing which of 715 numbers to use the +1 / -1 Strategy on.

Jayemmar  neat bit of programming. thanks for another tool.

If I can try to explain the process.   he takes all 715 possible keys( box combinations), checks the last 30 draws ( you have to create this past draw file) to find which of the 715 keys were most productive.  you review the output file and you choose 1 or more of these productive keys as an input to the unlock program to generate possible plays.

Destiny can you take a past draw # and say it is more likely than another previous draw # to produce a winner?  with this tool you should be able to.

you still need a DSH chart to cut down cost and find the straight.

please please someone write this to excel. It would simplify it greatly an easier to follow. right winsum you can do it.thanks

Jayemmar

using your program yesterday morning I found 1 key that had 7 hits and a couple of 6 hits.  i used this 7 hit key and one of the six to run in your unlock program.  Midday and evening comb was in both.  I will be doing more testing to see how often this happens and can it be used to reduce # of plays.

a couple of questions. 1 up and down on the individual #'s i understand.  1 up and down on the pairs i don't understand as it would appear to me to give the same numbers. would you explain this process please

How much is your system? Do you have customer service for helping anyone who doesn't understand the program?

Jayemmar

after I read what you wrote instead of thinking I knew what you wrote I understand.

Kisha70 look back to the first post  he has a link to a download site. the program is free.  several steps but looks to be a useful tool

Hi Phileight:

Thanks for jumping in to clarify some points that others did not understand. I have another interesting variation for play with this system.

In the 30 day variation, we are looking for keys that have shown a trend to unlock winners, hoping that the trend will still prevail over the next 5-10 draws. It would really be nice if we could get in earlier and jump on a beginning trending key. To investigate this, here's what I have tried and found to be effective:

1. Take the last two draws and create a drawsP4.txt with them.

2. Run keysPerformance.exe

3. Open the keys.txt file and look for keys that have unlocked 2 winners. If present, these are the keys you want to consider for future play.

4. If all the keys listed in keys.txt show that they have uinlocked only one winner this is even better, because no trend has begun yet. Wait for the next draw and add it to those already in drawsP4.txt. Patience will pay off.

5. Run keysPerformance.exe and open at the keys.txt file. If there are keys that have unlocked 2 or more winners, then these are your future keys to work with. If there are only keys that have unlocked one winner, then repeat step 4 and this step.

Lets look at some examples.

We'll set today's date as March 2, 2012 and go to Massachusetts. The last 2 draws were:

5040,1922

After creating drawsP4.txt and running keysPerformance, the keys.txt file showed that all keys listed unlocked only one winner. The next draw was 4798. Applying the rules above, the new keys file showed also that all keys listed only unlocked one winner. The next draw was 8685. Adding it to the drawfile and running keyPerformance, the new keys file showed that the keys 4688, 4689, 4788, 5689, 5788, and 5789 unlocked two winwers.

The winning draws over the next 8 days were:

4027,7284,4197,5575,7854,4394,8476,7426,1997,9266,5010,4323,8837,6399,7495,9966   

4688 unlocked 7584, 8476, and 8837

4689 unlocked 7495

4788 unlocked 8837, and 8476

5689 unlocked 9966

5788 went on later to unlock the winner 5799  on the 28th of March, and 5789 unlocked the winner 7969 on the 18th of March.

Last stop -  California (Hosni, this one is for you)

Again, we'll set todays date as the 2nd of  March, 2012. The last two draws were: 3563 and 3904. Running keysPerformace on this set of data we find that the keys.txt files shows that all keys listed unlocked only one winner. The next draw to occur was 4589, Updating the drawfile and running keysPerformance, the keys.txt file shows that the keys: 0358, 0448, 0459,  3489, 3599, and 4449 have unlocked two winners. The next 16 draws(California does not have 2 Pick4 games per day) were:

9812,2633,2494,0799,4264,7920,9454,4095,5639,6094,8583,2878,0548,5974,3756,5826

0358 unlocked 4095

0448 unlocked 0548

0459 unlocked 0548 and was a winner itself(4095 - this happens every now and then)

3489 unlocked 8583

3599 unlocked 8583

4449 unlocked 9454

So there you have it.

Comments welcomed.

As a PS to this post. Double keys result in less boxed plays than single didgit keys(12 versus 32).

jayemmar

where is the download link? i only see the upload

Here you go retxx

http://www.box.com/s/220e2f757d00a1b8eb52

Mass Drawing Text Files:

Midday, Evening Combined

http://www.box.com/s/4f1feedfdc30baf4ed1e

http://www.box.com/s/b2e23249027e0d012d00

http://www.box.com/s/9b190d1e5181e918ead0

Retxx:

Just copyand paste this into your url window and hit enter.

http://uploading.com/files/a84cm385/Handicapping%2BThe%2BPick4.zip/

jayemmar

Idid and a box keep popping up and another in front of it and another etc. crazy never loads

I'll be testing this system for Iowa this week. I've also noticed that keyperformance.exe crashed when i put more than 30 draws in there.

anything else I can try?