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Help with Prediction Needed

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Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 10 months ago by martor854.

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martor854
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Edinburgh
United Kingdom
Member #97862
September 24, 2010
20 Posts
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Posted: July 31, 2012, 5:00 am - IP Logged

Hi AlgorithmGuru,

Thanks a lot for the info. It is exactly what I've been looking for. I'll get the book somehow and... get my nose on the grindstone. It is obvious you do know your stuff. Thanks again for your help.

Best regards,

martor854

    billybouy
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    United Kingdom
    Member #71134
    February 7, 2009
    734 Posts
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    Posted: August 2, 2012, 8:38 am - IP Logged

    Hi AlgorithmGuru,

    Thank you for your contribution. I find it very fair and sensible. I have my doubts, too, that past, independent occurrences can help with predicting new ones. So, all that remains is probability. But, maybe I’m wrong.

    Your view is interesting but I don’t know what an XmR chart is. I’d appreciate it if you could give an example or indicate where I can get one.

    Intuitively, I’m inclined to go for Markov chains/model (like somebody else suggested) as I think our problem is similar to predicting the weather. I’m only scratching the surface. My lack of training in maths will make it difficult, though. I must find a “hands-on” example. If I make any progress, I'll keep everybody posted.

    Best regards,

    martor854

    Hi martor854,

    Try this it may help.

    https://www.box.com/s/cae29ed0dfeff2eb0145

    Sometimes we can't see the woods for tree's, " so we have to clear a path "

      SergeM
      SergeM's avatar - talking icon.png
      5/6 and 8/10 winner
      Belgium
      Member #123712
      February 27, 2012
      1792 Posts
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      Posted: August 2, 2012, 9:03 am - IP Logged

      If you use Bayes for pick 3, then you might think that all combinations will happen in 1000 drawings for pick 3. In the real world, that would just be too easy. Here we passed 3000 drawings and several combinations did not appear.

      By randomness for 3000 drawings it could be "000" in pick 3 every time. In the real world, I cannot believe that the organizers of a lottery will let this pass.

      *keep crunching*

      .

        martor854
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        Edinburgh
        United Kingdom
        Member #97862
        September 24, 2010
        20 Posts
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        Posted: August 3, 2012, 1:44 am - IP Logged

        Hi billibuoy,

        Thanks. I already have the file from you. Please, see my PM.

         

        Hi SergeM,

        That's an interesting viewpoint. Thank you for the contribution. I'll check it.

         

        Best regards to you both,

        martor854

           
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