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Eastern Time (GMT-5:00) | Rollover Probabilities for Powerball's current jackpot.New Jersey United States Member #21537 September 4, 2005 887 Posts Offline | | Posted: August 12, 2012, 12:32 pm - IP Logged | |
The current Powerball jackpot is $203M Cash/$305 million annuity as of this writing. Based on these figures the anticipated sales, according to the Lottery, should be around 102.6M, yielding 56.3 million tickets sold. The Poisson probability distribution for this number of sales (purely randomized) suggests the following probabilities for this many tickets sold: | k, number of winners | p(m,k) | | 0 | 74.62% | | 1 | 21.84% | | 2 | 3.20% | | 3 | 0.31% | | 4 | 0.02% |
Anything can happen, but this suggests that the most likely outcome would be yet another rollover. Another set of probabilities can be determined by considering what the last $2 powerball ticket drawing sold, which was the $325M (annuity) jackpot last February, a continuation of a $1 powerball ticket run. This set sold $169.4M tickets. Were this repeated, the distribution of winners would be as follows: | k, number of winners | p(m,k) | | 0 | 61.68% | | 1 | 29.81% | | 2 | 7.20% | | 3 | 1.16% | | 4 | 0.14% | | 5 | 0.01% |
This also suggests that a rollover is the most probable outcome although, again, anything can happen. | | |
KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL! NYC United States Member #124503 March 14, 2012 5016 Posts Offline | | Posted: August 12, 2012, 6:17 pm - IP Logged | |
The current Powerball jackpot is $203M Cash/$305 million annuity as of this writing. Based on these figures the anticipated sales, according to the Lottery, should be around 102.6M, yielding 56.3 million tickets sold. The Poisson probability distribution for this number of sales (purely randomized) suggests the following probabilities for this many tickets sold: | k, number of winners | p(m,k) | | 0 | 74.62% | | 1 | 21.84% | | 2 | 3.20% | | 3 | 0.31% | | 4 | 0.02% |
Anything can happen, but this suggests that the most likely outcome would be yet another rollover. Another set of probabilities can be determined by considering what the last $2 powerball ticket drawing sold, which was the $325M (annuity) jackpot last February, a continuation of a $1 powerball ticket run. This set sold $169.4M tickets. Were this repeated, the distribution of winners would be as follows: | k, number of winners | p(m,k) | | 0 | 61.68% | | 1 | 29.81% | | 2 | 7.20% | | 3 | 1.16% | | 4 | 0.14% | | 5 | 0.01% |
This also suggests that a rollover is the most probable outcome although, again, anything can happen. based on thrifty anlalysis that all Qp GENERATE jackpot winners...then i would assume the jackpot will not roll... somebody will win this draw...because duplicate Quick PIcks cannot happen thus making the probablity of a quick pick losing ticket infintesimal. est modus in rebus --- Catch the Lightning! He deals the cards to find the answer, the S. G. of chance, the hidden law of a probable outcome, the numbers lead a dance. - Sting. | | |
Mcminnville, Oregon United States Member #3070 December 13, 2003 1897 Posts Offline | | Posted: August 12, 2012, 8:07 pm - IP Logged | |
The current Powerball jackpot is $203M Cash/$305 million annuity as of this writing. Based on these figures the anticipated sales, according to the Lottery, should be around 102.6M, yielding 56.3 million tickets sold. The Poisson probability distribution for this number of sales (purely randomized) suggests the following probabilities for this many tickets sold: | k, number of winners | p(m,k) | | 0 | 74.62% | | 1 | 21.84% | | 2 | 3.20% | | 3 | 0.31% | | 4 | 0.02% |
Anything can happen, but this suggests that the most likely outcome would be yet another rollover. Another set of probabilities can be determined by considering what the last $2 powerball ticket drawing sold, which was the $325M (annuity) jackpot last February, a continuation of a $1 powerball ticket run. This set sold $169.4M tickets. Were this repeated, the distribution of winners would be as follows: | k, number of winners | p(m,k) | | 0 | 61.68% | | 1 | 29.81% | | 2 | 7.20% | | 3 | 1.16% | | 4 | 0.14% | | 5 | 0.01% |
This also suggests that a rollover is the most probable outcome although, again, anything can happen. I am wondering if the cash value will increase before wednesday night since their is 4 days before the drawing.-weshar75 
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New Jersey United States Member #21537 September 4, 2005 887 Posts Offline | | Posted: August 13, 2012, 4:39 pm - IP Logged | |
I am wondering if the cash value will increase before wednesday night since their is 4 days before the drawing.-weshar75
This is certainly possible. If they sold the 169M tickets I spoke of above, the new jackpot would be approximately $225M cash/338M annuity. I would expect it to end up somewhere in that neighborhood, but even so the most probable outcome would still be a rollover. | | |
New Jersey United States Member #21537 September 4, 2005 887 Posts Offline | | Posted: August 15, 2012, 10:50 am - IP Logged | |
The new probabilities of various numbers of winners, reflecting the new jackpot figures of $213.3M Cash/$320M Annuity are given in the following table: | k, number of winners | p(m,k) | | 0 | 68.25% | | 1 | 26.07% | | 2 | 4.98% | | 3 | 0.63% | | 4 | 0.06% |
...if anyone's interested. Also if anyone's interested, the pretax cash basis expectation value is 0.73. Anything can happen, but the Poisson distribution (randomized) would seem to suggest that the most probable outcome is yet another rollover. | | |
NY United States Member #24178 October 16, 2005 2535 Posts Offline | | Posted: August 15, 2012, 6:53 pm - IP Logged | |
based on thrifty anlalysis that all Qp GENERATE jackpot winners...then i would assume the jackpot will not roll... somebody will win this draw...because duplicate Quick PIcks cannot happen thus making the probablity of a quick pick losing ticket infintesimal. "because duplicate Quick PIcks cannot happen" First, what universe are you in where that's how it works? Second, the increase in the jackpot is based on selling about 70 million tickets. Even if there wasn't a single repeated combination that would leave about 105 million unplayed combinations, and about a 60% chance of a rollover. | | |
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