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# Rollover Probabilities for Powerball's current jackpot.

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 1 year ago by KY Floyd.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
905 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 12, 2012, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

The current Powerball jackpot is \$203M Cash/\$305 million annuity as of this writing.

Based on these figures the anticipated sales, according to the Lottery, should be around 102.6M, yielding 56.3 million tickets sold.

The Poisson probability distribution for this number of sales (purely randomized) suggests the following probabilities for this many tickets sold:

 k,   number of winners p(m,k) 0 74.62% 1 21.84% 2 3.20% 3 0.31% 4 0.02%

Anything can happen, but this suggests that the most likely outcome would be yet another rollover.

Another set of probabilities can be determined by considering what the last \$2 powerball ticket drawing sold, which was the \$325M (annuity) jackpot last February, a continuation of a \$1 powerball ticket run.   This set sold \$169.4M tickets.   Were this repeated, the distribution of winners would be as follows:

 k,   number of winners p(m,k) 0 61.68% 1 29.81% 2 7.20% 3 1.16% 4 0.14% 5 0.01%

This also suggests that a rollover is the most probable outcome although, again, anything can happen.

KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL & REMEMBER TO SWING!
NYC
United States
Member #124498
March 14, 2012
6255 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 12, 2012, 6:17 pm - IP Logged

The current Powerball jackpot is \$203M Cash/\$305 million annuity as of this writing.

Based on these figures the anticipated sales, according to the Lottery, should be around 102.6M, yielding 56.3 million tickets sold.

The Poisson probability distribution for this number of sales (purely randomized) suggests the following probabilities for this many tickets sold:

 k,   number of winners p(m,k) 0 74.62% 1 21.84% 2 3.20% 3 0.31% 4 0.02%

Anything can happen, but this suggests that the most likely outcome would be yet another rollover.

Another set of probabilities can be determined by considering what the last \$2 powerball ticket drawing sold, which was the \$325M (annuity) jackpot last February, a continuation of a \$1 powerball ticket run.   This set sold \$169.4M tickets.   Were this repeated, the distribution of winners would be as follows:

 k,   number of winners p(m,k) 0 61.68% 1 29.81% 2 7.20% 3 1.16% 4 0.14% 5 0.01%

This also suggests that a rollover is the most probable outcome although, again, anything can happen.

based on thrifty anlalysis that all Qp GENERATE jackpot winners...then i would assume the jackpot will not roll...

somebody will win this draw...because duplicate Quick PIcks cannot happen thus making the probablity of a quick pick losing ticket infintesimal.

I win money in the lottery.  I do my best to win money in the lottery.

In LOTTO, if you think LONG, then you think WRONG.

(C2H5OH) is the lottery mindkiller! -- Paul USL MUSL MoabDib

Mcminnville, Oregon
United States
Member #3013
December 13, 2003
2081 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 12, 2012, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

The current Powerball jackpot is \$203M Cash/\$305 million annuity as of this writing.

Based on these figures the anticipated sales, according to the Lottery, should be around 102.6M, yielding 56.3 million tickets sold.

The Poisson probability distribution for this number of sales (purely randomized) suggests the following probabilities for this many tickets sold:

 k,   number of winners p(m,k) 0 74.62% 1 21.84% 2 3.20% 3 0.31% 4 0.02%

Anything can happen, but this suggests that the most likely outcome would be yet another rollover.

Another set of probabilities can be determined by considering what the last \$2 powerball ticket drawing sold, which was the \$325M (annuity) jackpot last February, a continuation of a \$1 powerball ticket run.   This set sold \$169.4M tickets.   Were this repeated, the distribution of winners would be as follows:

 k,   number of winners p(m,k) 0 61.68% 1 29.81% 2 7.20% 3 1.16% 4 0.14% 5 0.01%

This also suggests that a rollover is the most probable outcome although, again, anything can happen.

I am wondering if the cash value will increase before wednesday night since their is 4 days before the drawing.-weshar75

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
905 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 13, 2012, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

I am wondering if the cash value will increase before wednesday night since their is 4 days before the drawing.-weshar75

This is certainly possible.   If they sold the 169M tickets I spoke of above, the new jackpot would be approximately \$225M cash/338M annuity.

I would expect it to end up somewhere in that neighborhood, but even so the most probable outcome would still be a rollover.

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
905 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 15, 2012, 10:50 am - IP Logged

The new probabilities of various numbers of winners, reflecting the new jackpot figures of \$213.3M Cash/\$320M Annuity are given in the following table:

 k,   number of winners p(m,k) 0 68.25% 1 26.07% 2 4.98% 3 0.63% 4 0.06%

...if anyone's interested.

Also if anyone's interested, the pretax cash basis expectation value is 0.73.

Anything can happen, but the Poisson distribution (randomized) would seem to suggest that the most probable outcome is yet another rollover.

NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
2696 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 15, 2012, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

based on thrifty anlalysis that all Qp GENERATE jackpot winners...then i would assume the jackpot will not roll...

somebody will win this draw...because duplicate Quick PIcks cannot happen thus making the probablity of a quick pick losing ticket infintesimal.

"because duplicate Quick PIcks cannot happen"

First, what universe are you in where that's how it works?

Second, the increase in the jackpot is based on selling about 70 million tickets. Even if there wasn't a single repeated combination that would leave about 105 million unplayed combinations, and about a 60% chance of a rollover.

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