where my Math heads at?? Martingale wagering question.Prev TopicNext Topic

• Ilovecash3

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  Apr 8, 2014, 7:42 am

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  If I was to use martingale wagering on a pick 3 number.. after a few months how much would I have spent if my number was to fall on April 1st..
  Also how much won/lost
  
  F.A.Q
  
  Everydraw lost, increase your wager by a dollar.
  The state is a 7 day 2 a day draw state.
  Prize for straight is $500
  
  Example
  Jan1st day draw spent $1
  Jan 1st night draw spent $2
  Jan 2 day draw spent $3
  Jan 2 night draw spent $4
  Jan 3 day draw spent $5
  Jan 3 nite draw spent $6
• LottoMetro

  

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  Apr 8, 2014, 12:06 pm

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  In response to Ilovecash3

  Quote: Originally posted by Ilovecash3 on Apr 8, 2014

  If I was to use martingale wagering on a pick 3 number.. after a few months how much would I have spent if my number was to fall on April 1st..
  Also how much won/lost
  
  F.A.Q
  
  Everydraw lost, increase your wager by a dollar.
  The state is a 7 day 2 a day draw state.
  Prize for straight is $500
  
  Example
  Jan1st day draw spent $1
  Jan 1st night draw spent $2
  Jan 2 day draw spent $3
  Jan 2 night draw spent $4
  Jan 3 day draw spent $5
  Jan 3 nite draw spent $6

  If you include April 1st in the calculation, there are 182 draws (or 91 days with 2 draws each). From Jan 1st - April 1st , you would spend a total of $16,653 which, after winning $500, gives you a net loss of ($16,153).

  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
• SergeM

  

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  Apr 8, 2014, 2:28 pm

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  In response to LottoMetro

  Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Apr 8, 2014

  If you include April 1st in the calculation, there are 182 draws (or 91 days with 2 draws each). From Jan 1st - April 1st , you would spend a total of $16,653 which, after winning $500, gives you a net loss of ($16,153).

  Martingale is when you raise the bet to recover the loss and make a little win. At roulette you might play red or black. When you lose your bet of 20 pieces, the next bet would be 40 pieces.
  

  Bet: 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, probably near to the maximum allowed bet or even over it. If you win after betting 2,560 your net win would be 20. You will have risked the sum of all the bets.

  182 draws, doubling the bet: 5.5782837687518354444243831788271e+56

  If you want to apply the idea of the martingale to straight pick 3 where you can win 500 for 1 and the 500 payout is guaranteed, you need to raise the bet after 499 bets only!

  If you increased your bet by one coin every bet, after 182 draws you would have spent 16,653 coins. If the last bet would have been correct, you would theoretically get 91,000 brutto or 74,347 net.
  Don't forget the taxes on that.
  
• LottoMetro

  

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  Apr 8, 2014, 2:40 pm

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  In response to SergeM

  Quote: Originally posted by SergeM on Apr 8, 2014

  Martingale is when you raise the bet to recover the loss and make a little win. At roulette you might play red or black. When you lose your bet of 20 pieces, the next bet would be 40 pieces.
  

  Bet: 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, probably near to the maximum allowed bet or even over it. If you win after betting 2,560 your net win would be 20. You will have risked the sum of all the bets.

  182 draws, doubling the bet: 5.5782837687518354444243831788271e+56

  If you want to apply the idea of the martingale to straight pick 3 where you can win 500 for 1 and the 500 payout is guaranteed, you need to raise the bet after 499 bets only!

  If you increased your bet by one coin every bet, after 182 draws you would have spent 16,653 coins. If the last bet would have been correct, you would theoretically get 91,000 brutto or 74,347 net.
  Don't forget the taxes on that.
  

  I am aware of what martingale is; the OP stated his series of bets to be $1, $2, $3....not the traditional doubling of bets in most martingale strategies.

  Good point in your last part though; I was assuming Ilovecash3 was betting multiple sets but closer look in his OP, he states he is using a specific set.

  If true, unfortunately, even after 182 bets, the probability that you have won at least once is only 16.65%, and the expected value is still negative.

  Martingale simply does not work without an infinite bankroll. I could spend hours pasting links to the numerous academia proving this.

  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
• SergeM

  

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  Apr 8, 2014, 2:55 pm

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  You can't win because they pay 500 for 1 out of 1000. If they paid 1000 for 1 out of 1000, you still cannot be sure of a financial net win.

  At roulette they pay 36 for 1 out of 37 and people still don't win.
• Ilovecash3

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  Apr 8, 2014, 3:34 pm

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  In response to SergeM

  Quote: Originally posted by SergeM on Apr 8, 2014

  Martingale is when you raise the bet to recover the loss and make a little win. At roulette you might play red or black. When you lose your bet of 20 pieces, the next bet would be 40 pieces.
  

  Bet: 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, probably near to the maximum allowed bet or even over it. If you win after betting 2,560 your net win would be 20. You will have risked the sum of all the bets.

  182 draws, doubling the bet: 5.5782837687518354444243831788271e+56

  If you want to apply the idea of the martingale to straight pick 3 where you can win 500 for 1 and the 500 payout is guaranteed, you need to raise the bet after 499 bets only!

  If you increased your bet by one coin every bet, after 182 draws you would have spent 16,653 coins. If the last bet would have been correct, you would theoretically get 91,000 brutto or 74,347 net.
  Don't forget the taxes on that.
  

  Thanks everyone. I may have worded wrong. But this is what I was lookn for.
  
  Now I just need that one good number