For those of you who missed it, not long ago Win D posed the question, "How many times has doubles hit in a row in your state?" (Or something similar, can't find that thread or I would post the quote and the link)
At any rate some went about the task of tracking down that tidbit of knowledge. The worst we could do was waste time. And the possibility of finding a real gem was tempting.
To demonstrate what we found, I need some numbers. It's always good to have numbers to chart things. So...let's see......let's a pick a state.
Eeeeney, meeeeeany, miiiiiiney, mork, what don't we use NEW YORK!
Going back to January 2008, 5033 draws we get the breakdown for the singles, doubles and triples.
I've circled the Doubles total in green, 1299 doubles have hit in the combined drawings in 7 years. We could add the Triples total of 52 since we will also be using it as a trigger for our "Doubles Trap." Either way it will be used as a trigger.
1299 doubles/7 years gives us approximately 185 - 186 doubles plays per year in the combined draws.
1351 doubles and triples divided be 7 years gives us 193 plays a year.
Oh YES! We need RULES to tell us how we are going to trap doubles.
Hmmmm.....let's say we play three consecutive draws after the first double or triple hits following a minimum of 4 singles. (we'll have 4 consecutive singles, then a double or triple hit, and then we'll play three consecutive draws.)
We can make a rudimentary calculation at this point. Since we're allowing 1 double to pass and playing three consecutive draws following it, we need four doubles in a row to hit.
If four doubles in a row hit, we win 3 times; if 3 doubles in a row hit, we win twice and lose once; if 2 doubles in a row hit we win 1 and lose twice. hit, skip, hit, hit = 2 wins, 1 loss; hit, skip, skip, hit = 1 win; hit, skip, skip, skip = 3 losses
The only question now is, "How many times do doubles and or triples hit 4 or more times in a row out of the 193 possible plays we have per year?"
Disappointingly, I ran the numbers and found there have been only 20 times since 2008 that doubles/triples have hit 4 or more times in a row in the New York Combined Numbers game.
Only happens 3 times out of the 193 plays per year.
So I dropped back to 3 in a row (each 3 in a row produces 2 wins, 1 loss).
Here's what I got:
82 total plays in 7 years.
20 of those in 7 years would be 3 wins.
62 of those in 7 years would be 2 wins and a loss.
That's the bare numbers. It doesn't include the hit, skip, hit, hit; hit skip, skip, hit; or the dreaded hit, skip, skip, skip.
The lingering question: "Which 3 of the 193 draws a year are going to be THE ONE to produce four doubles/triples in a row?"
Another mystery for:
THE LAVA LAMP
G