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Powerball Matrix Change - April 15, 2015Prev TopicNext Topic
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I think there are a few threads about this and I recall posting back in April or so when I first found out that a matrix change was coming to Powerball. Well, I finally got the details. Yes, folks, a change is real and it is coming and it is ugly. Get ready to scream.
Main points:
- Tickets are staying $2.00
- 5/66 + 1/32 matrix (yes, 1 in 285,981,696)
- Multiplier from 2X to 10X
- NO extra cost* for multiplier
- Overall odds of 1 in 30
I say worse because I did not expect them to take the jackpot odds to go that far.
The rules I have are a draft and there is no mention of starting jackpot or minimum rollovers. I presume they remain the same.
Early stages of analysis here so bear with me, but that is the story!
*Currently verifying, but sounds right given the drastic change in odds.
Match Tier Base Odds (1:X) Base Prize Multiplier "2" (min.) Multiplier "3" Multiplier "4" Multiplier "5" Multiplier "10" 5 of 5 + PB 285,981,696.00 Jackpot Jackpot Jackpot Jackpot Jackpot Jackpot 5 of 5 9,225,216.00 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 4 of 5 + PB 937,644.90 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $100,000 4 of 5 30,246.61 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $1,000 3 of 5 + PB 15,627.42 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $1,000 3 of 5 504.11 $7 $14 $21 $28 $35 $70 2 of 5 + PB 794.61 $7 $14 $21 $28 $35 $70 1 + PB 109.60 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $20 PB 48.07 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $20 Overall 30.06 - - - - - - If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
11,788 Posts
OfflineThose who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.
There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
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If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
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IMPORTANT CORRECTION*
False alarm about free multiplier. It is included on every ticket but only applies if you purchase the "Power Up" option. TECHNICALLY NOT FREE. In other words, this add-on allows you to win using the multiplier in both the base drawing and the secondary one. Should have known it was too good to be true!
I blame my fast fingers and the fact that they separated the rule documents for whatever reason. In the base document it says the multiplier is included with no mention of extra cost. But I got clear confirmation that it is only activated if you purchase the Power Up feature (this is bound to confuse players, I imagine).
Guess now we can go back to calling it terrible.
Not only did they worsen the jackpot odds, but they also lowered the 2 most probable base prizes. Notice they're also getting rid of the $2 million multiplied second prize, while making the odds nearly twice as bad. If I get the time I will try to go through and do a full analysis this weekend.
*Again, everything subject to change but the secondary rules clearly state, "A Multiplier Key is included on each Powerball ticket generated. The multiplier key on the Powerball ticket applies to the Power Up wager." Accept my apologies if I make any misinformed comments between now and the official matrix change.
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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I think there are a few threads about this and I recall posting back in April or so when I first found out that a matrix change was coming to Powerball. Well, I finally got the details. Yes, folks, a change is real and it is coming and it is ugly. Get ready to scream.
Main points:
- Tickets are staying $2.00
- 5/66 + 1/32 matrix (yes, 1 in 285,981,696)
- Multiplier from 2X to 10X
- NO extra cost* for multiplier
- Overall odds of 1 in 30
I say worse because I did not expect them to take the jackpot odds to go that far.
The rules I have are a draft and there is no mention of starting jackpot or minimum rollovers. I presume they remain the same.
Early stages of analysis here so bear with me, but that is the story!
*Currently verifying, but sounds right given the drastic change in odds.
Match Tier Base Odds (1:X) Base Prize Multiplier "2" (min.) Multiplier "3" Multiplier "4" Multiplier "5" Multiplier "10" 5 of 5 + PB 285,981,696.00 Jackpot Jackpot Jackpot Jackpot Jackpot Jackpot 5 of 5 9,225,216.00 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 4 of 5 + PB 937,644.90 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $100,000 4 of 5 30,246.61 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $1,000 3 of 5 + PB 15,627.42 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $1,000 3 of 5 504.11 $7 $14 $21 $28 $35 $70 2 of 5 + PB 794.61 $7 $14 $21 $28 $35 $70 1 + PB 109.60 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $20 PB 48.07 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $20 Overall 30.06 - - - - - - -
My sig garners comments from time to time
The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.
As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.
Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.
I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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My sig garners comments from time to time
The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.
As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.
Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.
I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.
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My sig garners comments from time to time
The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.
As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.
Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.
I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.
I look at your sig garners comments from time to time. They do make me think because they are philosophical in content. You see i don't never say i will win a jackpot, i just say these numbers look kinda good or not and i might pull it off but otherwise i know i already lost. To me PB /MM are both robbery. You play 10 bucks and you get back 2 bucks? Ha! That looks like a bad return. So i don't play all the time. I don't care what size the jackpot is. If i can afford to play at the time and it feels ok i will play but if not i just ignore them. I am going to be trying my luck on the the other lower jackpot games like multimatch or VA moneyball. or decades for dollars that don't have those long odds as pb/mm. I just don't bet the farm on every game. If i see numbers i like and could have played and they turn up, i would say those are numbers i could have done and move on. Or somebody hit it well i could've played but it wasn't the right time for me. But hey life goes on. So i don't stress myself out over it.
You say most people will never win a jackpot true that, but then again, you have got to wonder about the folks who have struck it. 212 big jackpot winners since 1997. Out of billions of tickets. How did they get chosen? So its <snip>ed if you or don't. If you don't try.T$
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My sig garners comments from time to time
The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.
As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.
Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.
I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.
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" Still swinging, still missing "
2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 = -1171; 2017 = -1257 ; 2018 = - 1380 = TOT = - 6233keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 =-427; 2018= -223 TOT = -3968
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Well, hypothetically, if you knew without a doubt that you would win the next drawing, of course you would play regardless the size of the prize.
This is because your probability of winning would be 1.
Example of expected value calculation: (-2 * 0) + (1,000,000 * 1) = 1,000,000
No matter what, your expected outcome is positive so logicially you wouldn't care the size of the prize.
The issue is that you cannot know that you will win the next drawing. For every hallucination that says you will and is correct, there's many more that are wrong. Look at the forums where people post their dreams and numbers from dreams. Now how many actually turn out correct and end up getting them a jackpot? Again, if your "timeline" so to speak is destined to include winning a jackpot, it doesn't matter when or how you choose to play. I choose to play where most rewarding.
But we're getting a little OT here, this thread is about the pending Powerball change
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
