Quote: Originally posted by visiondude on May 20, 2003
if you would have done a little more homework on me you would have read that i have an open mind. meaning so far i have yet to see any proof that anybody can create an edge using systems to beat the odds in what i believe is a truly random game. thats one of the other reasons that i am in here. to see if someone does.
Easy there VD..."a little more homework" just because I said I couldn't claim to have read all of your posts, doesnt mean I haven't done "my homework." that is a big leap...I have read alot of your posts--I cant be sure about all of them--I was just being trying to be precise. So far however, I see no evidence of your open mind. (And for the record, the object is to improve the odds.)
If you had done your homework you would have read my entire post...and maybe your open mind would have understood that your conclusions are based on a misunderstanding of the facts.
For example:
1. You keep referring to the lottery as a random game...that is not accurate. the lottery DRAW is a random process. A thing cannot be random, only a process can be random.
2. Just because a process is random, does not mean probabilities do not apply.
e.g. With Venus and Serena Williams playing for USA Olympic Tennis Team, the USA will likely win. However they could still lose. Therefore the competition is still a random process.
Do you see? A random process does not necessarily produce an unpredictable result. Just because we know a certain result is unlikely does not necessarily make a competition, lottery, game, etc. deterministic. The two principles can and do coexist in nature, in life and in the lottery. The Lottery Commission ensures the process is random. The process being the weight of the balls, how long they turn in the machine, etc. But even the Lottery Commission admits that it is possible to see patterns. The admit this on their websites usually on the pages that allow players to download past winning numbers. There are deviations of course. Sometimes all the numbers drawn are odd. But the important thing is that does not Usually happen. If you eliminate all combinations that are made of all odd numbers, you have eliminated over 300,000 possible combinations in a 6/49 game. That is called an improvement.
"plus you know the age old lottery prediction arguement that most jackpots are won using quick picks."
Another conclusion based on a faulty premise. I think that is the age old argument made by QP'ers with bad information.
I refer you to my previous post...I think I very clearly demonstrated that that is not the case. Using the FLA lotto example, people who pick their own numbers won a majority of the jackpots while purchasing only 30% of the tickets sold
"correct me if i am wrong but i have never personally heard of anyone (besides i think steve player) say that they won a jackpot game using a "system". and i am not talking about license plate numbers, birthday numbers, etc."
okay, I will correct you. I will use as a reference the press releases of a popular system developer Gail Howard. Her systems have produced 74 jackpot wins since 1985. considering such a small amount of people pick their own numbers, and not everyone who picks their own numbers uses her system, we can deduce less than 30% use her system. That makes 74 jackpots (97 million) seem impressive to me. You can verify this yourself at www.gailhoward.com If 74 jackpots doesnt seem like much to you because her systems have been around for a while, remember more people use QP.
Truth is what stands the test of experience.
--Albert Einstein