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Expected Return
New Jersey United States Member #3523 January 22, 2004 248 Posts Offline |
| Posted: February 19, 2004, 8:03 am - IP Logged |
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And you'd be smart to do it.
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Canada Member #3794 February 15, 2004 46 Posts Offline |
| Posted: February 19, 2004, 10:47 pm - IP Logged |
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Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on February 18, 2004
The highest expected value for the Lotto 649 lottery occured on the Sept 30, 2000 draw. The expected value was 79%. The jackpot was $15 million and the sales were 28,649,988 tickets. The expected value is usually around 70% when the jackpot is $10 million
The highest expected value for the Super 7 lottery occured just recently on Jan 30, 2004. The expected value was 70%. The jackpot was $30 million and the sales were 33,834,020 tickets.
Thanks for the replies. For the 6/49 Sept. 30 draw, the prizes given out totaled $23,839,799.3, so with sales of $28,649.987, the actual return was 83%. For Lotto Super 7, you get 3 plays for $2 so there were actually 101,522,391 "tickets" in play for January 30. If we value the free plays as $2, the actual return for the $25 million bonus draw on January 23 was 84.6% ($46,517,297.30 / $54,964,354). For Jan. 30, the potential return was 83% had the $30 million bonus jackpot been won ($56,317,199.5 / $67,681,594).
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Canada Member #2723 November 2, 2003 497 Posts Offline |
| Posted: February 20, 2004, 7:36 am - IP Logged |
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LottoBuddy, I am using the term expected value. It is not calculated by simply dividing the amount of money paid out by the number of tickets sold. The reason is that the money paid out is based upon someone winning the jackpot, this is not a given. Expected value calculations does not depend upon the jackpot being won, only the probability that it is won and by how many tickets. In performing expected value calculations, you need to calculate the probability of no jackpot winner, 1 winner, 2 winners, etc. These are the calculations that prob987 has been posting. I am sticking with my previous calculations. Good luck,
Jake
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New Jersey United States Member #3523 January 22, 2004 248 Posts Offline |
| Posted: February 21, 2004, 8:36 pm - IP Logged |
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I have reviewed lottobuddy's paper posted earlier. As I surmised in my conversation with Jake, the issue comes down to taxation. An expectation values you may have seen from me or will see from me do not include taxes.
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China
Member #3089
December 16, 2003
1082 Posts
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| Posted: February 22, 2004, 5:03 am - IP Logged |
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Are you calculating for the government?I am surprised you guys are so fond of it..so whats the point?
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Canada Member #3794 February 15, 2004 46 Posts Offline |
| Posted: February 22, 2004, 4:06 pm - IP Logged |
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Quote: Originally posted by goose on February 22, 2004
Are you calculating for the government?I am surprised you guys are so fond of it..so whats the point?
Looking for a fair bet is the best thing that gamblers like you can do. The lotteries love players that stupidly buy tickets without even knowing the odds of winning, expected or potential value, and other important calculations. Some mathematically-inclined people are interested in the math of lotteries. To each his own. I have seen a lottery newsgroup where all members do is post their useless picks; anytime a number from their "magic" wheels is drawn, they think it is evidence that the lottery balls are talking to them!
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Canada Member #3794 February 15, 2004 46 Posts Offline |
| Posted: February 22, 2004, 4:28 pm - IP Logged |
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Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on February 19, 2004
One lottery that currently does have a positve expected value is the Mass Millions with a jackpot of $48.5 million. With very low sales, one can reasonably expect to not have to share the jackpot if won. If I lived there, I would only buy tickets for this lottery to the exclusion of all other lotteries until the jackpot is won.
Can Jake649 or prob987 please post their numerical calculation of the expected value for the Mass Millions $49.2 million draw on Monday? I have never seen a lottery where the jackpot hasn't been won for two years and each jackpot increase is so low. Does anybody have a link for the sales figures? We should form a syndicate and buy all 13,983,816 combinations!
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Canada Member #2723 November 2, 2003 497 Posts Offline |
| Posted: February 22, 2004, 9:19 pm - IP Logged |
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LottoBuddy, Here is my estimated expected value for the Mass Millions at the jackot level of $49.2 million. Assuming an after-tax cash value of $16 million and 1 million tickets sold, I estimate the expected value of the jackpot prize itself at $1.10. The value of the secondary prizes bring the value higher. I did not bother calculating them because the value is already well over 1 dollar. I would like to be part of a group to try to win the jackpot. You do not have to try to buy all the tickets to make it worthwhile. Even buying a couple of thousand tickets is a very "positive" gamble. Good luck,
Jake
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Canada Member #3794 February 15, 2004 46 Posts Offline |
| Posted: February 25, 2004, 2:35 am - IP Logged |
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Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on February 22, 2004
Assuming an after-tax cash value of $16 million and 1 million tickets sold, I estimate the expected value of the jackpot prize itself at $1.10. The value of the secondary prizes bring the value higher. I did not bother calculating them because the value is already well over 1 dollar.
Since nobody (including the research paper) has given an actual example showing the calculations, I'll give it a shot: ($2,657,320 / $13,983,816) + ($16,000,000 / 13,983,816) (P(0)/1 + P(1) /2 + P(2) /3) = 0.19 + (1.144179814723 * 0.9650673333333) = 0.19 + 1.10 = 1.29 expected value of Mass Millions Please post any corrections.
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