Buying more tickets = reduced oddsPrev TopicNext Topic

• Colin F

  Australia
  Member #3,084
  December 22, 2003
  328 Posts
  Offline
  May 5, 2004, 5:16 pm

  ▲▼

  KeyStoneChas

  Spot on.

  BobP

  1 in 8,145,060

  12 in 8,145,060 = 12/8,145,060 = 1/678,755

  4,072,530 in 8,145,060 = 1/2 or .5

  8,145,059 in 6,145,060  ie 99% sure but not certain.

  8,145,059 in 8,145,060 = 1 ie certain but may have to share with other winners.

  Regards

  Colin
• wiseone2

  

  iowa, illinois
  United States
  Member #4,477
  April 27, 2004
  40 Posts
  Offline
  May 5, 2004, 5:29 pm

  ▲▼

  For everyone that thinks they know how to figure odds:

  There are 1000 total possible cases in pick-3 lottery, the straight bet being considered, from 0 (000, in fact) to 999. Only one 3-digit combination is drawn, therefore the winning probability is 1 / 1000 (0.001). The lottery commission says the odds are 1 in 1000, or "1000 to 1.
  There are 10000 total possible cases in pick-4 lottery, the straight bet being considered, from 0 (0000, in fact) to 9999. Only one 4-digit combination is drawn, therefore the winning probability is 1 / 10000 (0.0001). The lottery commission says the odds are 1 in 10000, or "10000 to 1.
  

  Calculating the odds at horseracing is also tricky. We know only statistically that the bettors pick the winner in around 45% of the races. We can also use mathematical formulae to calculate the probability or the odds for certain horseracing wagers. The probability of winning straight trifecta is '1 in N * (N-1) * N(-2)' , where N represents the number of horses in the race. For example: the odds of a straight trifecta in a 12-horse race are '1 in 12 x 11 x 10' = '1 in 1320'. The probability of boxed trifecta is 6 times better; the order of the top three finishers is not important. We can arrange 3 numbers (horses) in 3! = 1x2x3 = 6 ways regardless of order.
  

  The lotto games are much more diverse. The diversity widens when the 'power ball' games are taken into account. The lottery commissions set the odds as exactly k of m. Exactly is the operative word here. I thought it was at least. I started a heated debate in 2001, in newsgroups, thinking that the lottery commissions were dead wrong in their calculations of odds. I admit it, I was wrong, but for a right reason. The odds calculated as at least k of m lead to very different values.
  The most certain element in calculating the lotto odds is total possible cases. It is known as total number of combinations C(n, k). The combination formula is widely accepted, expert or not.
  

  
  

                n!
  C(n, k) = --------------
  
                    k! (n k)!
  

  
  or
  
  

                    n*(n-1)*(n-2)*(n-3)*...(n-k+1)
  
  C(n, k) = -------------------------------------
  
              1*2*3*...k
  

  
  n! represents the factorial and is calculated as 1*2*3*4*...*n. For example, the lotto 6/49 game has a total of [49 * 48 * 47 * 46 * 45 * 44] / [1 * 2 * 3 * 4 * 5 * 6] = 13,983,816 combinations.
• Todd

  

  50

  Chief Bottle Washer

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #1
  May 31, 2000
  27,930 Posts
  Online
  May 5, 2004, 5:31 pm

  ▲▼

  Quote: Originally posted by wiseone2 on May 05, 2004
  

  ---

  
  I said I wasn't going to post anything else on this topic, but I must clarify the issue.  Each number combination you purchase has a 1:120,000,000 chance of winning or the odds against you are 120,000,000 to 1.  The purchase of 2 number combinations does not change the odds against you to 60,000,000 to 1.  Probability is figured by calculating total probable cases.  Comparing number of chances to probability is like apples to oranges.  The number (1) in the stated odds is represented as (1) because only one winning combination of numbers is drawn against any number of tickets you purchase.  If you want to figure odds/probability on the purchase of multiple tickets, there is a complicated formula to do that.  It is not simply replacing the (1) with the number of tickets purchased and reducing the fraction.  Doing it that way is very deceptive.  You can read more about probability/odds calculations at this website:  http://www.saliu.com/bbs/messages/266.html
  

  ---

  
  

  
  

  wiseone2,

  What can I say?  You are just wrong on this.  I see you've referenced Saliu's Web site, but you're obviously not drawing the right conclusions from it.

  Do you think that just because we're dealing with odds in the millions that the basic mathematical rules don't apply the same way as odds in the "tens"?

  Pick a number from 1 to 10.  You have a 1 in 10 chance of picking the right number.

  Pick 2 numbers from 1 to 10.  You have a 1 in 5 chance of picking the right number.  You do NOT have 2 separate 1 in 10 chances, you have one single 1 in 5 chance, because it is one dvent, and you have covered 2 of the 10 possible outcomes.

  Again, you are confusing the mathematical rules with effective odds reduction.  I understand that a 1 in 60,000,000 chance is still very small, but that is still what you get when you buy two Powerball tickets.

  Last chance: if you do not think that buying 2 Powerball tickets gives you a 1 in 60,000,000 chance of winning that single drawing dvent, then please by all means give us the exact odds of winning if you buy 2 tickets.  And don't tell me it's 2 separate 1 in 120,000,000 chances, because that is not what I asked.  Express the odds of winning as a "1 in xxx,xxx,xxx" chance of winning.

   

  Check the State Lottery Report Card
  What grade did your lottery earn?

   

  Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
  Help eliminate computerized drawings!
• dragon

  San Diego
  United States
  Member #4,520
  May 1, 2004
  243 Posts
  Offline
  May 5, 2004, 10:14 pm

  ▲▼

  Todd:

  I am glad you said the above,  not me, even though I felt like it throughout this post. If I had said that, I'd be chased out of the forum by now for being a goose.

  I think wiseone is splitting hairs. If he ( or she ) believed what he is saying, it would not make sense for him to play the lottery. Just play one ticket, that's all you need. Given that  that is absurd, he must just be playing a game of semantics. The Saliu paragraphs have no bearing on his argument.
• keystonechas

  

  Columbia,Pa
  United States
  Member #3,522
  January 27, 2004
  372 Posts
  Offline
  May 6, 2004, 12:17 am

  ▲▼

  Welcome dragon,

  Relax, no one is going to run you out. Todd's KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) method to explain all this is much better than using numbers in the millions and thousands.

  Chas
• ayenowitall

  

  United States
  Member #4,416
  April 22, 2004
  1,075 Posts
  Offline
  May 6, 2004, 2:13 am

  ▲▼

  On a jackpot game, you can enhance your chances of winning (albeit ever so slightly) by buying more sets of numbers, but the odds of the game remain the same. The odds of any one set of numbers being drawn are unaffected.
• Colin F

  Australia
  Member #3,084
  December 22, 2003
  328 Posts
  Offline
  May 6, 2004, 9:46 am

  ▲▼

  ODDS

  10 little boxes; one of them has a valuable diamond in it.

  Cost you $100 to look in a box and keep what's in it.

  Buy 1 box:

  Odds for or probability (favourable/ all outcomes): 1 in 10 or 1/10 or .1 or 10%.

  Odds against (bookies way) : 9 chances of losing: 1 chance of winning or 9:1 or 9/1 (but the / does not mean division).

  Buy 5 boxes:

  Odds for or probability: 5 in 10 or 5/10 or 1/2 or .5 or 50%.

  Odds against: 5 of losing: 5 of winning or evens.

  Odds against = (1/Probability) - 1

  Probability of 1/4 or .25 = Odds 1/.25 - 1 = 4 - 1 = 3

  Odds 4/1 or 4:1 gives 5 chances so probability 1/5 = .2 or 20%

  Odds 10/1 gives a probability of 1/11 (11 chances overall)

  Odds 6/4 or 6:4 means 6 chances of losing: 4 chances of winning.

  Odds 4/6 or 4:6 means 4 chances of losing: 6 chances of winning and can be shown as "6 to 4 on"

  Know the terminology which has been around for a very long time and accept what it means.

  Regards

  Colin
• RJOh

  

  100

  mid-Ohio
  United States
  Member #9
  March 24, 2001
  20,272 Posts
  Offline
  May 6, 2004, 12:57 pm

  ▲▼

  I plan to increase my chances of winning something in the PowerBall drawing this weekend by purchasing several combinations.  I know there are 120,526,770 possible combinations and 3,342,046 of them will pay $3 or more and I hope that some of my combinations are among them.  I'll be looking at past history and hoping to pick only numbers that are most likely to be drawn  to reduce my selections to about 20 lines which in well within my budget.  My chances aren't as good as being in a pool of players each with 20 lines, but I won't have to share my winnings. 

  RJOh

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• Todd

  

  50

  Chief Bottle Washer

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #1
  May 31, 2000
  27,930 Posts
  Online
  May 6, 2004, 1:48 pm

  ▲▼

  RJOh:

   

  Check the State Lottery Report Card
  What grade did your lottery earn?

   

  Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
  Help eliminate computerized drawings!
• wiseone2

  

  iowa, illinois
  United States
  Member #4,477
  April 27, 2004
  40 Posts
  Offline
  May 6, 2004, 5:42 pm

  ▲▼

  You can argue if it is effective reducing of the odds, meaning whether or not you are much closer to winning a jackpot, but you are being intellectually dishonest if you refuse to admit that you have reduced the odds by buying additional tickets.

  Arguing whether using math to give oneself a sense that purchasing more tickets to win a pb jackpot or any lottery game is effective is exactly my point.  I only attempted to use math (however inaccurately) to mainly save a lot of people some money.  I personally don't think math and the lottery go together.  It that were the case, the greatest mathematicians in the world would be winning the jackpots all the time.  The truth is....the more a person knows about math, the less likely they are to play the lottery.  Several statisticians use math regarding the lottery only to point out how unlikely a person is to win a lottery jackpot, not to find ways to win.  Whether a person spends $1 on a lottery ticket or $100's of dollars, in reality, they are no more likely to win than anyone else.  Using math only gives one a delusional sense that they are realistically closer to winning the jackpot than a person that spends $1 on a ticket.  Yes, I play the lottery....not because I do anything in an attempt to reduce my odds of winning, but only because someone, somewhere will win, and I hope it will be me someday.  Winning the big jackpot in a lottery is a longshot for everyone, whether you use math or not.  The more a person invests in the lottery, the more they lose.  I've never heard of a winner that spent more than $100 on any drawing.  And the fact is, they didn't win because of how much they spent, the numbers they won with only cost $1.  The following is a response from a statistician regarding using math to win a lottery jackpot.

  
  

  By using Math;Buying two powerball tickets comes extremely close to doubling your chance of winning the jackpot. Of course you have also doubled the amount of money that you have invested.

  
  

   

  
  

  As you increase the number of tickets that you buy (2, 3, 4,..or more), you very slowly decrease the net expected return per ticket. The odds are already stacked against you. For each $1 that you use to buy tickets, the long run average is that you will only get $0.50 back. Thus if you buy $100 worth of tickets, your long run average is to only get $50 back. If you bought millions of tickets, this $0.50 return per ticket actual starts to decline.

  
  

   

  
  

  Good luck on Powerball - you'll need it.

  
  

   

  
  

   

  
  

   

  
  

  P.S. Keep buying Powerball tickets. The money you spend actual lowers my taxes a tad.

  
  

  Keep it real.
• Todd

  

  50

  Chief Bottle Washer

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #1
  May 31, 2000
  27,930 Posts
  Online
  May 6, 2004, 8:08 pm

  ▲▼

  wiseone,

  First you posted a bunch of messages in which you claimed to mathematically prove that buying two Powerball tickets didn't lower your odds to 1 in 60,000,000.  And now, after being faced with indisputable facts showing that you were wrong, you claim that you "personally don't think math and the lottery go together."

  You even proved yourself wrong by quoting the mathematician who said "Buying two powerball tickets comes extremely close to doubling your chance of winning the jackpot."  (It actually literally doubles your chances, but he's probably taking into the account the minute possibility that you'd buy two of the same numbers.)  The rest of the quote is not becoming of a mathematician, probably better for a anti-lottery politician.

  I have nothing against you personally, and I apologize if you take this harshly.  I just think that it is good etiquette to admit when you're wrong.  If you think someone is wasting their money playing Powerball, that certainly is a valid subject, but it would be better for you to start a new thread about it.  This thread started with a question about mathematical probabilities.

   

  Check the State Lottery Report Card
  What grade did your lottery earn?

   

  Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
  Help eliminate computerized drawings!
• wiseone2

  

  iowa, illinois
  United States
  Member #4,477
  April 27, 2004
  40 Posts
  Offline
  May 6, 2004, 8:35 pm

  ▲▼

  ok, i'm wrong with the math calculations, but i don't feel i'm wrong perspectively about the realization of winning a jackpot based on increasing the amount of money you play for a drawing.  i'm sure mathematical probability was used to create the lottery and and ensure no one, no where, no how, would have an advantage over anyone in winning the jackpot.  just because on paper the odds look reduced using math, doesn't mean in reality they are reduced.  anyone selling lottery strategy software or any other methods to cause people to believe it will lead to winning a jackpot is putting themselves in jeopardy of being sued.  anyone that causes a person to invest more money into the lottery with the false hopes of realistically winning the jackpot could also be sued.  that is why musl didn't answer the question i submitted to them.  my intent wasn't to argue math, but to keep the probability of one's chances of winning the jackpot in the proper perspective.
• wiseone2

  

  iowa, illinois
  United States
  Member #4,477
  April 27, 2004
  40 Posts
  Offline
  May 6, 2004, 8:50 pm

  ▲▼

  everything the lottery does is geared towards prdventling anyone from having an "edge".  that is real.
• Todd

  

  50

  Chief Bottle Washer

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #1
  May 31, 2000
  27,930 Posts
  Online
  May 6, 2004, 8:53 pm

  ▲▼

  Of course, that's how ALL gambling works, not just the lottery.  When's the last time you walked into a casino or track and had a probablility of winning?  If you want certainty of income, get a second job.

   

  Check the State Lottery Report Card
  What grade did your lottery earn?

   

  Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
  Help eliminate computerized drawings!
• wiseone2

  

  iowa, illinois
  United States
  Member #4,477
  April 27, 2004
  40 Posts
  Offline
  May 6, 2004, 9:01 pm

  ▲▼

  it's not me trying to relate to others that by using math you can guarantee with certainty a win. nor am i remotely or indirectly trying to imply that.