I get a big laugh when I see someone post about how Quick Picks are the greatest. Then they'll post some winning numbers and prizes with a "Look! See!... See! Look!...  Loooook...seeeee." attitude. Well, there are a few problems with comparing Quick Picks to Self Picks (a.k.a. Personal Picks). It has to do with proportionality of work being done. From Powerball's Frequently Asked Questions page, under the heading WHICH HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING: COMPUTER PICKS OR PLAYER PICKS? They say, "About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks." Computer picks are also know as Quick Picks. This is a fairly good representation of the population as a whole because it's based on actual data obtained on a Nation wide basis without regard to detailed demographics of the purchaser. 70% to 80% is the percentage of the total number of purchased plays, n. n can be any value for any given draw. p, the percentage, is the proportion of n purchases that are Quick Picks. p is represented as a value less than or equal to 1 and greater than or equal to 0, i. e. ( 70% = .70 and 80% = .80). Multiplying p times n gives the number of Quick Pick purchases for that draw, Q_n. The number of Self Picked purchases is just the difference between n and Q_n, S_n = n - Q_n. During any draw there are Quick Pick wins, X, and Self Pick wins, Y. In order to offset the disproportionate number Quick Pick purchases to Self Pick purchases, we need to setup an equation of proportionality that states as Y is to B is the same as X is to A. This satisfies a lead in partial statement of, "All things being equal..." The equation of proportionality is then, Y is to S_n is the same as X is to Q_n becomes (Y / S_n) = (X / Q_n). This allows for a more equal comparison of which type of play has the advantage. We can solve for Y to find by proportion what a Quick Pick equals in terms of a Self Picked purchases based on the approximate percentage of 70% to 80%. As you'll see, the number of purchases becomes immaterial because that value factors out of the final equation.

n - total number of purchases

p - percentage of Quick Pick purchases

Q_n = p · n , Q_n - number of Quick Pick purchases

S_n = n - Q_n , S_n - number of Self Pick purchases

X - Quick Pick wins

Y - Self Pick wins

(Y / S_n) = (X / Q_n), equation of proportionality

Equation of Proportionality Solved for Y

(Y / S_n) = (X / Q_n)

(Y / (n - Q_n)) = (X / Q_n)

(Y / (n - p · n)) = (X / (p · n))

(Y / (n (1 - p))) = (X / (p · n))

Y = ((n (1 - p)) / (p · n)) · X

Y = ((1 - p) / p) · X

Y = ((1 / p) - 1) · X

If we set X = 1, then we can see what one Quick Pick win equals in terms of a Self Pick win.

Y = ((1 / p) - 1) · 1

Y = (1 / p) - 1

Below is a table that shows what a Quick Pick equals for a few different percentages of Quick Pick purchases for any draw. A number less than 1 means the Quick Pick is less than effective as a Self Picked purchase. At 80%, a Quick Pick is only (1 / 4)^th as effective as a Self Picked purchase.

This makes reasonable sense, Quick Picks out weigh the number of Self Picked purchases. This would be like having a football game and on the Quick Pick side you have all 12 players and on the Self Pick side you'd have only about 3 to 5 players. All the players have equal ability. Who do you think is going to win? Really, come on, all things being equal, it's obvious and unfair.

But, you also have to realize, with all those Quick Picks, if they are so great, wouldn't you see more wins per draw?

Self Picked numbers have the edge. Let's look at what 1 Self Picked purchase is equal to in terms of a Quick Pick.

Solving for X instead of Y, we get X = (p · Y) / (1 - p)

Set Y = 1, the equation is X = p / (1 - p)

As you can see, at 80% you'd have to have at least 4 Quick Pick wins in the same draw to be the same as 1 Self Pick win in the same draw.

Quick Picks can't match the power of Self Picks.

Interesting Doug!

I think self picks have the edge too.

Many self-picks are random-picks as are quick-picks, but have the advantage of being edited for duplications, grouping and formation of numbers that players may want to avoid or include on their tickets.

Even when I play randomly picked numbers I like making out my playslips which allows me know what they are before I buy my tickets.

Your thesis is very well written and presented. I too believe that self picked numbers are better than quick picks. And, your post helps to convince me of this belief. Thanks for doing the math and sharing your findings!

Amen ! I have no relationship with any lotto computor so why would the computor do me any favors? I look out for myself and pick my own to control my destiny. Just my opinion.

I appreciate recreational math at least as much as the next guy, but that was a lot of unnecessary math to figure out that if 80% of tickets are QP's there are 4 QP's sold for every self pick sold. Wouldn't it have been a lot simpler to just  divide .80 by .20?

Now, what about the actual data on the number of QP winners vs selfpick winners? The rest of the quote from the powerball site says that about 70 to 80% of the winners are QP's, so their (extensive) data seems to suggest that QP and SP both win in proportion to sales.

It has always been my experience, excellent derivation and conclusion. Thanks Doug.

One of the advantages of picking your own numbers is you can introduce a bias that shouldn't and can't exits with QPs. 

For example, since MegaMillion changed its matrix 231 drawings back the winning combinations have matched 2000 of the 27720 possible combinations of 3's in a pool of 56 numbers.  Each combination of 5 have 10 of them and about 50% of the winning combinations have 10 new ones and 40% have 9 new ones every drawing.  By making sure the combinations you play have as many new combinations of 3's as possible, you increase the odds of at least matching three numbers and hopefully more. 

There may be other bias you've noticed in the winning combinations and by picking your own combinations you can avoid or take advantage of them.

I'd like to say that in no way should Quick Picks be etched of the equation.

However, when someone uses Quick Picks as the banner headline to indirectly put down those who choose their own numbers, well, that's just not right. From my pervious post I stated first, "This makes reasonable sense, Quick Picks out weigh the number of Self Picked purchases. This would be like having a football game and on the Quick Pick side you have all 12 players and on the Self Pick side you'd have only about 3 to 5 players. All the players have equal ability. Who do you think is going to win? Really, come on, all things being equal, it's obvious and unfair." The highlighted portions show that I acknowledge the fact there are is a disproportionate number of winning Quick Picks to Self Picks. From the Powerball FAQ's page, they say "About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks." Underscore, Obvious and Unfair.

My second posted statement, "But, you also have to realize, with all those Quick Picks, if they are so great, wouldn't you see more wins per draw?", was intended to be a little sarcastic and facetious. Mostly directed toward Jackpot wins, but with the recent multi-Mega Millions winners, maybe they read this. Mwww-ah-ahah, I have more control than they know.

Anyway, the overall objective was to level the unfair playing field that Quick Picks and Self Picks are playing on. Also, there are other aspects of Self Picked number that have an advantage that far out weigh Quick Picks. One of these can be expressed in one word, 'Discretion.' With Quick Picks you have absolutely none. Self Picks give you that leeway to make an Intelligent decision about what numbers you'd like to play. There is no Quick Pick in the world that can even come close to this.

In ending, I'd like to see the Quick Pick believer gather up all those Quick Pick Losers in one place and tell them how they should love their Loosing Quick Picks because they are so great. Please make sure to bring someone else with you and video record this for me.  I've never seen a hoard of disgruntled Quick Pick Losers tear someone limb-from-limb.

If you subscribed to the list of winners e-mail for any given lottery game you might think differently.

I get the one for the Illinois Little Lotto since it's the one I play the most, there's a drawing everyday, and it gets hit pretty often. Most of those hits are quick picks, that's al there is to it. 

Here's August:

 LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR FRIDAY, AUGUST 03, 2007
 
 
 Winning NUMBERS: 01 - 05 - 26 - 36 - 39
 
 
 PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
    INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:        2
 EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:        $190,000.00
 
      Winning TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:
 
      828178    CC FOOD MARTS            (QP)
           
 
      258707    SPEEDWAY #5378           (QP)
             

LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR SUNDAY, AUGUST 05, 2007
 
 
 Winning NUMBERS: 03 - 14 - 25 - 27 - 28
 
 
 PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
    INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:        1
 EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:        $150,000.00
 
      WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:
 
      800219    CASEYS GEN STORE #2287
       
LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR TUESDAY, AUGUST 07, 2007
 
 
 WINNING NUMBERS: 01 - 11 - 14 - 26 - 38
 
 
 PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
    INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:        1
 EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:        $175,000.00
 
      WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:
 
      201535    PAYLESS TOBACCO          (QP)
         

LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 08, 2007
 
 
 WINNING NUMBERS: 06 - 16 - 25 - 34 - 35
 
 
 PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
    INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:        1
 EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:        $100,000.00
 
      WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:
 
      095125    GAS PLUS FOOD MART         (QP)
           

etc.... It won't let me post them all because they're in caps and it's too time consuming to make them  enough lower case to post, but for August 11 out of 17 winning tickets were quick picks.  That's a very typical month. 

I buy a quick pick for most every mega draw. I am usually never happy with the numbers on them --- meaning i rarely get quick picks that have numbers i would have even thought of playing. When we bought quick picks in a pool i would go over the numbers and shake my head having found that out of 100 or so tickets many tickets had similar combinations of numbers either sequentially or by position. I expected to see lines that are completely different from one another. Not tickets with the same numbers bunched up.

Of course i realize that every ticket has the same possibility of winning something.

I just wish the numbers on quick picks were more dispersed over the field of numbers. And not the same on every other or several lines.

Sometimes i take the quick pick numbers i get on a group of tickets and fill out tickets with different numbers hoping to edge my selections in my favor. Hasn't worked yet but there always the next draw.    

four4me

But how often are the numbers drawn ones we would have played? Evidently not all that often!

I'd like to add, that in addition to "discretion" there is "intuition".  Human intuition cannot be measured empirically and therefore cannot be discounted as a good resource.

You can analyze, quantify, and calculate with all the tools we have at our disposal, but there is nothing that can match the human brain's ability to assimilate, process, and draw conclusions from any set of data it is given, instantaneously.

 "I think therefore I pick my own........"

Notice the left out information:

1. The total number of Quick Pick purchases it took to get that(those) win(s) for that day's draw.

2. The total number of Quick Pick purchases for the draws spanning 2007-08-03 to 2007-08-08 even when there was no jackpot Quick Pick win.

3. The numerous stores where people bought Losing-jackpot Quick Picks.

And at 70% to 80% of the purchases, I think you can get the picture.

I see a lot of comments about QP numbers that people aren't happy with, but if you acknowledge that each combination has the same chance of winning, why is that a problem?

Look at the winning combination for the last MM jackpot. All 5 regular balls were even and 2 of them were from the low 40's. Based on the comments I see I'm guessing that most of the people here would have been unhappy to see those numbers on their QP's, but we know there are 4 other people out there who are very happy to have played those numbers, whether by chance or design.

Of course that also may be a good argument against QP's.  The MD ticket was definitely a QP. I haven't seen anything about the other 3, but if all of the winning tickets were QP's it means we would have seen a roll if it weren't for those QP's. That would have given us a MM jackpot of at least 415 million or so. The numbers for the next drawing also look like a combination that wouldn't have been likely to have beenplayed except by a QP, either, so without QP's we might well have seen that fabled half billion dollar jackpot, and at that level it could well have passed the $600 million mark.

Personally I'd prefer that QP's didn't exist at all. It wouldn't do squat to improve my chances of winning, but it would give me more chances at bigger jackpots and a better chance of being an only winner if I were to win.

You can make a good guess at the answers by looking at the odds, but why does it matter? The statistics say that 70 to 80% of sales are QP's and 70 to 80% of winners are QP's. That also tells us that 20 to 30% of sales are self picks and 20 to 30% of winners are self picks. Both win in proportion to sales, and neither one has a better chance than the other.

A lot of times my chosen picks i wheeled for mega i have got 3 of 5 which i know isn't even close and 2 x i got 4 of 5 no bonus ball.

I have three mega tickets with personal numbers they also have came in 2 of 5 --- 3 of 5.

 I guess my story isn't much different than many others. Cause close only counts in horse shoes.

I would like to be one of the winners that can say i chose the picks and won with them. Whether they are my personal numbers or a random wheeled set i picked form observations. .

Let me see if i can explain this better. Lets say i go to 10 different farm stores and by 10 quick pick tickets then go home and check each ticket i have found that for some reason 8 of ten tickets out of the 100 have numbers like 01-03-05- others might have 34-35-39 and still others might have the same or similar numbers etc.

Now on a piece of paper i write down all the numbers 1 thru 46 in the pool and then check every number on the tickets and make hash marks for every number i have on the tickets on the piece of paper. Then i check to see what numbers i didn't get on any tickets.

Sometimes it's like 15 numbers or more that no ticket has on it anywhere.  Mind i just bought 100 tickets thats 500 hundred numbers and one would think that every number in the pool of 46 would have been placed somewhere throughout the 100 tickets.

I could see if 5 numbers weren't chosen at all.

We aren't even talking about bonus balls here. Thats another story.

I know there's fault with my idea but it has happened time and again even if i buy the 100 tickets from one machine.

All I'm saying is when i buy groups of quick picks most of them contain the same numbers or like numbers and when they draw the numbers I'm lucky if i match 2 of 5 on a few and once in a while 3 of 5.

Maybe other people have better luck when they buy groups of Q picks but here in Maryland it seems no matter where you buy them they are all like i have described.

There is a name for that QP phenomena, Quick Pick Clustering.

There are some people who just don't get it and then there are Some People Who Just Don't Get It.

The odds and equal probability of each combination is not in question and the probability of each combination for both Self Picks and Quick Picks are the same on a combinatorial basis, only.

Also, the proportion of separate sales and wins for the respective play types is not the problem.

Herein lay the problem, it's when Quick Picks are compared to Self Picks.

It reminds me of the snotty, gloating team that wins a game yelling, "WE WON, WE Won, nah-nah nah-nah nah nah!  Quick Picks won, Quick Picks won!"

Yet as mentioned before in the football example, the teams are grossly mismatched in player counts.

In that case, it's obvious "All things are NOT equal."

In order to make All Things Equal for a proper comparison, there needs to be some kind of relationship between the two different methods of play.

That is what the first post achieves, a means of equating a Quick Pick purchase to a Self Pick purchase; not on an odds basis, not on a combinatorial basis, just purchase to purchase, dollar for dollar.

Purchasing power is what this relates to; where the effort is placed and the results it achieves.

With that in mind, let's look at how this would be if I were to convert my Self Picks into Quick Picks to achieve the same results.

I'll spend around $20.00 on my Self Picks because it's tailored to my spending plan, the expendable cash I have to play with.

Spending more means I start cutting into other necessities like Gas, Utility, Mortgage, Food, Home Repair, etc.

Also, my Self Picks are optimized to produce the most number of wins with the least amount of effort.

It's one more thing that Quick Picks can't touch.

To convert my Self Picks to Quick Picks and try to achieve the results that the Quick Pick Believer would have me pay homage to, means I'd have to change the amount I'd be spending.

Unfortunately, this means increasing the cost of my plays.

The increase would jump from $20.00 to ($47.00 at 70%) and ($80.00 at 80%) to have the same effect as a Quick Pick.

That Is Not An Option.

I'll stick with my $20.00 play and just play Quick Picks as a Supplement to my playing strategy.

Yep thats the word that best describes it.

Quick pick clustering.

And you know what really bugs me is I'll bet it happens in other states too.

The Rng terminals chip sets are all more than likely from the same manufacture. Therefore they spit out the same or similar combinations. If those chip set are programed to omit numbers then they have gained and upper edge on the game. And while i have no way to prove it. Other than comparing large groups of Quick picks from past attempts at winning.

Sometimes when the pots are high and we form a pool we get 10 people together and all pitch in 20 bucks. 200 tickets / 1000 numbers and the field of numbers is not completely covered.

I'm not real good at math but I'd rather wheel the whole set of numbers and find a wheel that would generate tickets where the whole 46 numbers were used even though i know the improbability of winning with that wheel. At least all the numbers would be covered.  

Most people who pick their own numbers don't know how to predict right, so their numbers are no better than quick picks.

How many times do I have to say this?

Perhaps a billion times!, As some people just NEVER get it.

Birthdays, anniversaries, dream numbers, playing the same numbers all of the time, etc, those are not numbers picked according to a system that use past draws stats, so they are no better than quick picks, therefore the stats are are you said.

Picks that are better predicted do have a much better chance of winning than quick picks, but How many people know how?

Not very many as we all know or should know.

Therefore the above stats are probably right.

You get out, what you put in.

scheiß in scheiß out.

This is a family site, I should not be posting this. 

My Self Picks are Optimized to Produce the Most Number of Wins with the Least Amount of Effort.

I never had a Quick Pick Purchase do something like this for me in one draw like on 2007-10-06 and you will never see this happen on a consistent basis ever for a Quick Pick.

Self Picks are Optimized to Produce the Most Number of Wins with the Least Amount of Effort, Fact Undeniable.

Also, not showing up in the Lottery Post's data.

The Wisconsin Badger 5 has a match 2 of 5.

If those were included, there would be an additional 25 wins to tack on for the 2007-10-06 date.

Below is the complete list of combos and wins on the right for the 2007-10-06 draw.

Notice every line has at least 1 winning number in it, also.

Winning numbers for 2007-10-06 were 23 24 25 27 28.

00001 - 17 18 19 21 23 - 01
00002 - 17 18 19 21 28 - 01
00003 - 17 18 20 23 24 - 02
00004 - 17 18 21 22 28 - 01
00005 - 17 18 21 23 26 - 01
00006 - 17 18 22 23 27 - 02
00007 - 17 18 22 25 26 - 01
00008 - 17 19 20 22 27 - 01
00009 - 17 19 20 24 25 - 02
00010 - 17 19 21 22 28 - 01
00011 - 17 19 22 23 24 - 02
00012 - 17 20 21 23 27 - 02
00013 - 17 20 21 24 25 - 02
00014 - 17 20 21 24 26 - 01
00015 - 17 20 21 25 28 - 02
00016 - 17 20 22 25 27 - 02
00017 - 17 20 22 26 28 - 01
00018 - 17 20 24 26 28 - 02
00019 - 17 21 23 26 27 - 02
00020 - 17 21 24 25 27 - 03
00021 - 17 21 24 26 28 - 02
00022 - 18 19 20 22 25 - 01
00023 - 18 19 20 25 26 - 01
00024 - 18 19 21 25 27 - 02
00025 - 18 19 22 25 26 - 01
00026 - 18 19 23 24 26 - 02
00027 - 18 19 23 25 27 - 03
00028 - 18 19 24 25 28 - 03
00029 - 18 20 23 26 27 - 02
00030 - 18 21 22 23 27 - 02
00031 - 18 22 23 26 28 - 02
00032 - 18 22 24 26 27 - 02
00033 - 18 22 24 26 28 - 02
00034 - 18 23 24 27 28 - 04
00035 - 19 20 22 27 28 - 02
00036 - 19 20 23 25 28 - 03
00037 - 19 20 24 25 26 - 02
00038 - 19 21 22 24 25 - 02
00039 - 19 21 22 24 27 - 02
00040 - 19 21 23 24 28 - 03
00041 - 19 22 23 26 28 - 02
00042 - 19 24 26 27 28 - 03
00043 - 20 21 23 24 25 - 03
00044 - 20 21 25 27 28 - 03
00045 - 20 22 23 24 26 - 02
00046 - 20 23 25 26 27 - 03
00047 - 20 23 25 27 28 - 04
00048 - 21 22 26 27 28 - 02
00049 - 21 24 25 26 28 - 03
00050 - 22 23 25 27 28 - 04

The 2007-10-10 drawing also had 16 additional 2 of 5 wins.

Winning numbers 03 05 12 20 21 for 2007-10-10. 

00001 - 11 12 13 15 17 - 01
00002 - 11 12 13 15 22 - 01
00003 - 11 12 14 17 18 - 01
00004 - 11 12 15 16 22 - 01
00005 - 11 12 15 17 20 - 02
00006 - 11 12 16 17 21 - 02
00007 - 11 12 16 19 20 - 02
00008 - 11 13 14 16 21 - 01
00009 - 11 13 14 18 19 - 00
00010 - 11 13 15 16 22 - 00
00011 - 11 13 16 17 18 - 00
00012 - 11 14 15 17 21 - 01
00013 - 11 14 15 18 19 - 00
00014 - 11 14 15 18 20 - 01
00015 - 11 14 15 19 22 - 00
00016 - 11 14 16 19 21 - 01
00017 - 11 14 16 20 22 - 01
00018 - 11 14 18 20 22 - 01
00019 - 11 15 17 20 21 - 02
00020 - 11 15 18 19 21 - 01
00021 - 11 15 18 20 22 - 01
00022 - 12 13 14 16 19 - 01
00023 - 12 13 14 19 20 - 02
00024 - 12 13 15 19 21 - 02
00025 - 12 13 16 19 20 - 02
00026 - 12 13 17 18 20 - 02
00027 - 12 13 17 19 21 - 02
00028 - 12 13 18 19 22 - 01
00029 - 12 14 17 20 21 - 03
00030 - 12 15 16 17 21 - 02
00031 - 12 16 17 20 22 - 02
00032 - 12 16 18 20 21 - 03
00033 - 12 16 18 20 22 - 02
00034 - 12 17 18 21 22 - 02
00035 - 13 14 16 21 22 - 01
00036 - 13 14 17 19 22 - 00
00037 - 13 14 18 19 20 - 01
00038 - 13 15 16 18 19 - 00
00039 - 13 15 16 18 21 - 01
00040 - 13 15 17 18 22 - 00
00041 - 13 16 17 20 22 - 01
00042 - 13 18 20 21 22 - 02
00043 - 14 15 17 18 19 - 00
00044 - 14 15 19 21 22 - 01
00045 - 14 16 17 18 20 - 01
00046 - 14 17 19 20 21 - 02
00047 - 14 17 19 21 22 - 01
00048 - 15 16 20 21 22 - 02
00049 - 15 18 19 20 22 - 01
00050 - 16 17 19 21 22 - 01

THANKS...........to ALL for this QP..........discussion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This PSYKO has done well in the past with QP's (note: I said PAST)

In the present TIME..........this PSYKO <<<<<<<<<HAS NOT???????

therefore,.. what DO YOU think I've done in this SITUATION ???????

ANSWER: (& confession) translation,.....ALL pain....no GAIN <$$$$$

I've.............almost QUIT playing the LOTTERY ..............it aunt much

FUN any more if you DON't WIN>>>>>>>>>> .............<<<<<<<<<

THANKS>>>>>>>TOO ALL on the Lottery POST ^^^^^^^^^^^^

NO........won't QUIT 100% ..................BUT, &

all know their is always a BUTT out there QP computer has been

tampered, adjusted, fine tuned..or FIXED

PEOPLE won't QUIT play'in BUT...........they may not spend as much

money if the management is squeezing their BUTT's (pocketbook)

LOL >>>>>>>>>jackpot&&(TOO ALL)

ummm i disagree

80% of winning tickets are computer generated

there are 299,398,484 people in the u.s.

the odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 146,107,962

if you notice,the odds are about half the population.

that means if every person in the u.s.bought one powerball ticket.

only 2 people would win.and they would split the 15 million prize.

my pool will covor all 42 powerball numbers each drawing.

twice a week 52 weeks a year.to buy more tickets would be a waste.

not to covor each powerball number would be a waste.

play smart,get in a pool.dont waste the money God has given you.

each week i will win 3.oo because i will match the powerball.one winner

Actually it is closer to 70% if you are talking of Quick Picks, letting the computer pick your numbers.  The percentages reflect the way tickets are purchased, more tickets are sold as Quick Picks.

each week i will lose 41.00 because even though one ticket matched the powerball.we will have 41 losers.

I love being wrong.

Being wrong is what Dougies do best.

Let's see If I'm wrong again tonight.

I hope I am.

Billy Joel thinks you maybe right:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxNOCl7S7lU

Yep, Lottery Post statically wrong... almost, nearly 2 of 5 Badger 5 wrong.

It's good to be wrong, yeah... I tell ya...

Sometimes, determining what something is, is by determining what it isn't.

And what it isn't is what I'm looking for; it's what they're not looking at that is out of view.

It good to be wrong... well, nearly wrong.

It's looking very very good... keep up the bad work... I'll keep documenting.

2007-10-11 draw 03 04 07 13 24

00001 - 07 08 09 11 13 - 02
00002 - 07 08 09 11 18 - 01
00003 - 07 08 10 13 14 - 02
00004 - 07 08 11 12 18 - 01
00005 - 07 08 11 13 16 - 02
00006 - 07 08 12 13 17 - 02
00007 - 07 08 12 15 16 - 01
00008 - 07 09 10 12 17 - 01
00009 - 07 09 10 14 15 - 01
00010 - 07 09 11 12 18 - 01
00011 - 07 09 12 13 14 - 02
00012 - 07 10 11 13 17 - 02
00013 - 07 10 11 14 15 - 01
00014 - 07 10 11 14 16 - 01
00015 - 07 10 11 15 18 - 01
00016 - 07 10 12 15 17 - 01
00017 - 07 10 12 16 18 - 01
00018 - 07 10 14 16 18 - 01
00019 - 07 11 13 16 17 - 02
00020 - 07 11 14 15 17 - 01
00021 - 07 11 14 16 18 - 01
00022 - 08 09 10 12 15 - 00
00023 - 08 09 10 15 16 - 00
00024 - 08 09 11 15 17 - 00
00025 - 08 09 12 15 16 - 00
00026 - 08 09 13 14 16 - 01
00027 - 08 09 13 15 17 - 01
00028 - 08 09 14 15 18 - 00
00029 - 08 10 13 16 17 - 01
00030 - 08 11 12 13 17 - 01
00031 - 08 12 13 16 18 - 01
00032 - 08 12 14 16 17 - 00
00033 - 08 12 14 16 18 - 00
00034 - 08 13 14 17 18 - 01
00035 - 09 10 12 17 18 - 00
00036 - 09 10 13 15 18 - 01
00037 - 09 10 14 15 16 - 00
00038 - 09 11 12 14 15 - 00
00039 - 09 11 12 14 17 - 00
00040 - 09 11 13 14 18 - 01
00041 - 09 12 13 16 18 - 01
00042 - 09 14 16 17 18 - 00
00043 - 10 11 13 14 15 - 01
00044 - 10 11 15 17 18 - 00
00045 - 10 12 13 14 16 - 01
00046 - 10 13 15 16 17 - 01
00047 - 10 13 15 17 18 - 01
00048 - 11 12 16 17 18 - 00
00049 - 11 14 15 16 18 - 00
00050 - 12 13 15 17 18 - 01

Sometimes, determining what something is, is by determining what it isn't.

Trust me, anyone who can look at past results and take into consideration that sentence has a very good chance of hitting a jackpot. I know.

I would not be so unhappy about the lack of a 2-number match, if I were you.

If I applied the REAL Badger 5 payouts you'd be doing a lot worse.

In Badger 5, 4 of 5 pays $50, and 3 of 5 pays $2.

You posted above your Lottery Post stats:

Are you sure you want to quibble about not getting $1 for a 2 of 5 match?

___     ___     ___     ___     ___     ___     ___ 

By the way, for those who are not familiar with the predictions board payouts, the payouts across every state for a particular game type are purposely made the same, so that state-to-state comparisons are possible.

For example, on the prediction board, Pick 5 games always "pay out" $10 for a 3 of 5 match, no matter what state the hit is in.  The same goes for Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 games.

The only games that get a unique payout are unique games -- such as Powerball and Mega Millions, and other games that include a bonus ball as part of the normal payout.  (Not in games like NY Lotto, which include an extra ball drawn, but which you can't actually select a number for on the game card.)

By the way, for those who are not familiar with the predictions board payouts, the payouts across every state for a particular game type are purposely made the same, so that state-to-state comparisons are possible.

For example, on the prediction board, Pick 5 games always "pay out" $10 for a 3 of 5 match, no matter what state the hit is in.  The same goes for Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 games.

The only games that get a unique payout are unique games -- such as Powerball and Mega Millions, and other games that include a bonus ball as part of the normal payout.  (Not in games like NY Lotto, which include an extra ball drawn, but which you can't actually select a number for on the game card.)

This should be explained on the prediction board page. 

"This should be explained on the prediction board page."

I agree, lots of other things too.  I do what I can, given then number of things on my plate.  At least I'm describing it here.

Todd,

Not a slam on the Lottery Post's Prediction Board.

I understand the intricate problems of programming.

The information I've stated has another propose.

I can not say what it is, because it's an experiment in progress.

I have no problem with the way you have the prize levels and payouts set to, however, if you can make it more inline with the actual Game, Great.

There may be a way in the future, but I'm not saying yet either.

The main objective here is to document my selections before the actual draw.

If there are those in the Quick Pick Community who would like to challenge this topic, then document your selections here at the Lottery Post.

Post your Quick Pick Selections on the Prediction Board and Prove It.

"Random Creep" is what one author (William Atwood, I believe) refers to the numbers that repeat on subsequent lines of machine generated quick picks.  Random Creep defeats players from winning because numbers are repeated on purpose to limit or prevent the player from playing OTHER numbers.

I think it would be accurate to say that majority of LOSING tickets are quick picks.

Lastly, I call quick picks QUICKRIPS! because that is how they function most of the time.

"ALWAYS TELL THE TRUTH.  THAT WILL ASTONISH SOME AND GRATIFY THE REST."

PRES. HARRY S. TRUMAN, DEMOCRAT

"I think it would be accurate to say that majority of LOSING tickets are quick picks."

Since QP's account for 70 to 80% of all tickets sold, anyone with half a clue would expect that they should account for the majority of losers unless they're substantially better than self picks.

As far as "random creep" goes, that's simply a buzzword that may have been successful at selling a few lottery books to people who don't realize that having numbers repeated on multiple lines of a QP is no different than wheeling.

I thought "random creep" was someone on Jerry Springer.

Random Creep?

Hey, That's me!

Pretty much random and I am a Creep.

Random creep. I hear it is one of the warning signs for needing Depends.

I think you're confusing that with Random Seep.

Self picks vs Quick picks.  The numbers are random.  Any patterns that you believe you are seeing are a mirage.   Quick picks that group in the number range are no worse or better than any other number combination.  There is only one place that self picks have an advantage to quick picks, and that is to take advantage of other players' selection anomolies.  Specifically, when the pot is large it will draw a lot of players.  In these cases the probability of multiple winners begins to increase.  This is when a a self pick makes sense, to minimize the chance of multiple player wins and isolate the pot for yourself.  A selection of a set of numbers at the high end of the number range will have a better chance of reducing the probability of multiple wins if that number combination hits (which has the same probability as any other combination).  This is because there are enough people that play birthdays and lower numbers to skew the distribution of numbers being played to the low side.  This is the only place where self picks have legitimacy in a statistical sense.  (Unless you believe the random number generators are flawed--a dubious claim--except in Tennessee).

Sorry Rehoboth,

I got a little side tracked on some other projects. I'm going to respond to each of your statements as they were typed. Some of them will have details, some won't.

Self picks vs Quick picks.

    Opening statement.

The numbers are random.

    Open ended statement.

Any patterns that you believe you are seeing are a mirage.

    This statement I'd have to disagree with. Every lottery is based in some form finite combinatorial or permutational selection. That finite set of numbers follows a pattern that can be described mathematically, logically, structurally, numerically, and quantumly; all of which are well known patterns of the Universe. Quantum Lottery Mechanics, a new field of Combinatorics, says that if you randomly sample from a known finite set of combinatorial or permutational items, you must have within that sample set a pattern or sub-pattern of combinations or permutations that are fractally similar to the whole set of finite combinations or permutations. This is closely related to the Combinatorial Farctalization I've posted before. Simply put, no matter how random something may appear to be, there will always be some kind of pattern in the Chaos. Order is a subset of Chaos. Anytime you create a subset of Chaos, you in essence create Order; it can not be avoided. There will some pattern even when you select seemingly at random from that Order until the Order is released back into Chaos. Keep in mind that Quantum Lottery Mechanics does not say precisely what the pattern is, it just accurately describes what it should be like.

Quick picks that group in the number range are no worse or better than any other number combination.

    The relevant issue of whether Quick Picks had a combinatorial advantage or not over Self Picks is not in contention here.

There is only one place that self picks have an advantage to quick picks, and that is to take advantage of other players' selection anomolies.

    I'll agree partially here.

Specifically, when the pot is large it will draw a lot of players.

    Factual statement.

In these cases the probability of multiple winners begins to increase.

    Again, factual.

This is when a a self pick makes sense, to minimize the chance of multiple player wins and isolate the pot for yourself.

    Yes and no, the only true way to prevent someone from having your winning combination is to prevent anyone from playing it. However, since that is very unlikely, probability suggests it still can happen and even more so when more people are playing.

A selection of a set of numbers at the high end of the number range will have a better chance of reducing the probability of multiple wins if that number combination hits (which has the same probability as any other combination).

    Possible, but I don't have the statistical information to argue that point. I'm sure there is some study out there that can help, but for now I'll say, possibly yes.

This is because there are enough people that play birthdays and lower numbers to skew the distribution of numbers being played to the low side.

    Again, possibly yes.

This is the only place where self picks have legitimacy in a statistical sense.

    Seems logical, but again, statistical information would help.

(Unless you believe the random number generators are flawed--a dubious claim--except in Tennessee).

    Well, the proof is in the pudding and I've been tasting some pretty bitter samples lately. More to come on this one in another topic to be posted.

hey Ky Floyd

Well said.

I have alwys known that any given set of numbers are just as likely to occur as any other. 

I'm posting this information because some of the matching numbers are falling below the Lottery Post's Prediction Statistic Radar.

The wheel I'm using to post my Self Picks is as follows.

Next are the up-to-date matches for each day's drawn numbers and the corresponding wheel line matches.