In lotteries, lucky numbers will only win you less

Oct 9, 2015, 10:59 am (38 comments)

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It goes without saying the chance of winning the lottery is minuscule. But if you play the numbers, you should know that certain tactics commonly used to make picks reduce the likelihood of collecting the maximum payout.

Grab a pencil, and we'll try it out.

Let's say a $1 lottery ticket allows you to choose six numbers between 1 and 75. Write down your choices and make a mental note regarding the significance of each one.

If you are like many people, you picked numbers with personal meaning. Perhaps you jotted down a birthday or an anniversary. Possibly you threw in a 7 or some other lucky number. Or maybe you went for a pattern like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Those numbers may feel more satisfying than a computer-generated selection, but they are no more likely to win.

And they are less likely to give you that "I'm quitting and moving to Maui" payday you may dream about if other people, using similar strategies, choose the same numbers and get a cut of the jackpot.

"You can spend your whole life playing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and you'll have the same chance of winning as someone who played 1, 12, 25, 36, 38, 41," said Philip J. Cook, co-author of Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America and a professor of public policy, economics and sociology at Duke University. "It does not matter in terms of winning. It matters in terms of dividing the pot."

Any combination of numbers is equally likely to win, but people tend to choose some numbers and combinations more frequently than others, increasing the likelihood that different people will end up with the same picks.

The effect was documented recently by researchers in the Netherlands and the U.K. who examined more than 5 million number combinations played in the Dutch Lotto during 2½ years to test the players' preferences.

In the Dutch game, players select six numbers between 1 and 45 plus one of six colors. The chances of winning the jackpot, or a share of it, are about 1 in 49 million. The data used by the researchers included the ticket holders' birth date and four digits of their postal code.

If the players had picked randomly, the researchers expected each number to be chosen 13.3% of the time. But that proportion was exceeded by all personal numbers, and day of birth, which was chosen 21.03% of the time, was the most popular.

"These are numbers that follow you through life," said Tong V. Wang, a doctoral student at Erasmus University in Rotterdam and one of the researchers. "You might pick these numbers more frequently. That's indeed what we find."

Other patterns also emerged. Players preferred numbers that appeared in the middle of the lottery form to those on the edges. Visual patterns, such as strings of numbers that ran diagonally across the form, were popular, as were mathematical patterns—including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, which was the third most popular combination based on the number of players who chose it. Within the period the researchers studied, it was selected 1,944 times by 670 different people.

The researchers found numbers that were "primed" in the players' memory also were chosen frequently. For example, the six numbers that appear in the Dutch game's logo — 2, 6, 15, 24, 37, 45 — were chosen 2,873 times by 650 different players.

While choosing particular numbers doesn't improve a player's chances of winning the lottery, and could reduce the amount of money a winner collects, all modern lottery games allow, and encourage, players to make their own picks.

"It distracts people from the pure chance element," Dr. Cook said. "People act as if they can improve their odds of winning through their insight or technique, but there is no way to improve your odds if the game is, as advertised, purely random."

Winning any amount may satisfy some players. But if the aim is to vie for the maximum payout, the best strategy is to let the lottery's computer generate a random combination of numbers that is less likely to be duplicated by lots of other players.

"An important determinant in playing is the size of the jackpot," said Martijn J. van denAssem, a professor of finance at the University of Amsterdam and another of the researchers. "If they knew they would have to share, it will become less appealing."

And sometimes, the effect is extreme.

The combination 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42, a recurring string that appeared in the American television series "Lost," was played more than any other in the Dutch study, a total of 3,190 times by 656 people.

It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

It amounted to $150 per person.

But when Julie Leach of Michigan won $310.5 million in the Powerball lottery on Sept. 30, she was the only person playing the numbers 21, 39, 40, 55, 59 and Powerball number 17.

That winning combination was an "easy pick" randomly generated by the computer at her local Shell gas station. The numbers were meaningless. But they were worth a fortune.

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Wall Street Journal

Comments

Zebekyia

It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

 

This is incorrect.  4/5 pays a set amount not part of a multimillion dollar jackpot.  The person who wrote this article seems like they don't know how to play the games, but it does state that people playing birthdays have a higher chance of splitting the jackpot.  Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself.

 

Anyway this article could be summarized to say, "You have a higher chance of splitting Jackpots if you play birthdays or meaningful numbers as they are all likely lower and there's a higher mathematical chance that someone also played the same birthday numbers.

Todd's avatarTodd

Quote: Originally posted by Zebekyia on Oct 9, 2015

It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

 

This is incorrect.  4/5 pays a set amount not part of a multimillion dollar jackpot.  The person who wrote this article seems like they don't know how to play the games, but it does state that people playing birthdays have a higher chance of splitting the jackpot.  Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself.

 

Anyway this article could be summarized to say, "You have a higher chance of splitting Jackpots if you play birthdays or meaningful numbers as they are all likely lower and there's a higher mathematical chance that someone also played the same birthday numbers.

Regarding your statement, "Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself."

That is totally wrong.  You might have a personal opinion that 1,2,3,4,5,6 can never win, but factually you are wrong.  There is nothing about the way the balls are loaded or the physics of the machine that would cause that combination -- or any other combination -- to not be selected.

Hopefully nobody reads your statement and bases their play selections on it.

hearsetrax's avatarhearsetrax

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Oct 9, 2015

Regarding your statement, "Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself."

That is totally wrong.  You might have a personal opinion that 1,2,3,4,5,6 can never win, but factually you are wrong.  There is nothing about the way the balls are loaded or the physics of the machine that would cause that combination -- or any other combination -- to not be selected.

Hopefully nobody reads your statement and bases their play selections on it.

I still stand by a comment I made a while back

bigbear29

I personally would not play 1,2,3,4,5,6, I don't know if they would ever come up, I think the odds of that happening is very high.  So, if a person has time on their side go and play that combination.  It is hard enough to win playing regular combinations.

cbr$'s avatarcbr$

Computer - generated quick pick do have a up side. I prefer a selection of both my own & theirs. I can believe more people choose numbers important to them.

savagegoose's avatarsavagegoose

given a long enough time, 1 2 3 4 5 6 will be drawn in some draw, go grab 6 dice and try to get  ea number on 1 dice with just one throw ea. If you hhave ever played yahtzee its not impossible. it just doesnt happen every game.

Coin Toss's avatarCoin Toss

Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Oct 9, 2015

I personally would not play 1,2,3,4,5,6, I don't know if they would ever come up, I think the odds of that happening is very high.  So, if a person has time on their side go and play that combination.  It is hard enough to win playing regular combinations.

If - or when - 1  2  3  4  5  6  were to hit it would probably set a record for how many ways it would be split.

noise-gate

The Game in Random- if it was not, people would be winning each & every time and the game as we know it would fold.There is no such thing as" Lucky Numbers"- sure they are for you, should you win, but overall,  every ticket has as much chance as another. I have be saying that for years..but has anyone been listening? Consider this, prior to Gloria " cutting in line" there were untold millions of individual players along  with folks in lottery pools getting their ducks in a row * meself included hoping to cash in- but a 84 year old gets the Pot of Gold. As someone's signature reads " Pick your own losers."..or winners for that matter.

GoogilyMoogily

Quote: Originally posted by Zebekyia on Oct 9, 2015

It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

 

This is incorrect.  4/5 pays a set amount not part of a multimillion dollar jackpot.  The person who wrote this article seems like they don't know how to play the games, but it does state that people playing birthdays have a higher chance of splitting the jackpot.  Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself.

 

Anyway this article could be summarized to say, "You have a higher chance of splitting Jackpots if you play birthdays or meaningful numbers as they are all likely lower and there's a higher mathematical chance that someone also played the same birthday numbers.

I often thought about the physics of the machine and started to build a fairly complicated physics simulator in Blender, with more than a little help from Matlab and Ansys.  It was more fun than function.  If anything, a truly RNG based on geometry and physics rather than suspect calculations, clock times, etc.  Nevertheless, I have learned that the balls (for MM) are loaded randomly.  Then, the non-linear physics of balls deforming slightly as they bump and the wildness of the airflows in the tumble chamber make it all but impossible to predict any outcome with certainty.  The odds of every combination are exactly the same.  Patterns, calendar days (prevalence on numbers 1-31 being played) and other lucky numbers are absolutely unknown to random chaos.  You are correct in that if people tend to play numbers near to each other there is a chance of sharing the pot.  I do like very big numbers.  The degrees of freedom of motion for all the balls, and fairly complicated meshes to simulate the non-linear action/reaction between the (round enough) balls, etc. etc. etc. would take my tiny laptop trillions of years to solve one revolution of the tumble chamber.  Isn't physics fun?  I think so!

TheGameGrl's avatarTheGameGrl

The irony in qp's is that on various occasions the very numbers I would have picked, showed up on the QP ticket, So really be it man or machine...the odds remain the same. You either win or you don't. Not much math to that final analysis.

The other part is the allocation of number sets given to state terminals....That too plays a part....

Will be bias on the fact that ball drawn games tend to give you the visual whereas with Computers...its all behind the curtain and rarely disputable should a glitch be sited.

music*'s avatarmusic*

Thank You Todd.  I will continue to use the Quick Pick Generator you have provided for us. It is found at the Quick Links on the left side of the Home page. Find Quick Picks.

 You offer a better RNG then the State's offer. And in the convenience of our home.

 I now know how difficult it is to change numbers from your favorites. I think "How would I feel if my numbers came up and I did not play them?"   I am doing both, LP's RNG and my own picks. I need some courage to discontinue my favorites.

Good Luck to all LP members !US Flag

myturn's avatarmyturn

Actually, we all win! Even people who don't play win! 'How so?', one may ask. We all benefit from the revenue raised, which is the point of lotteries.

mikeintexas's avatarmikeintexas

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Oct 9, 2015

Regarding your statement, "Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself."

That is totally wrong.  You might have a personal opinion that 1,2,3,4,5,6 can never win, but factually you are wrong.  There is nothing about the way the balls are loaded or the physics of the machine that would cause that combination -- or any other combination -- to not be selected.

Hopefully nobody reads your statement and bases their play selections on it.

I cannot find the news story about it on the 'net, only posts in this forum (by me) and in other forums, but not long after Texas began their lottery, there was a guy in S. Texas who bought five lines on a ticket and two of the QP lines were the same.  They did a segment about it on the Amarillo news, bringing in some math professor who showed his calculations that the odds of that happening were virtually the same as winning the lottery. (with a tiny bit of difference since the man had bought five lines)

Artist77's avatarArtist77

Hmmm....so is this article saying Thrifty is right about his fave Maddog contest numbers....1-2-3-4-5-6.  Lol

PrisonerSix

I can think of some real world examples of this. I remember reading here about a couple of Powerball drawings in which many players had won a lower tier prize by matching 4 out of 6 numbers. One incident was playing the numbers from the "Lost" TV series and another was playing the numbers found in a fortune cookie. If they had been the jackpot, it would have been divided amongst several thousand people. That's why I usually play QuickPicks.

Groppo's avatarGroppo

Quote: Originally posted by Zebekyia on Oct 9, 2015

It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

 

This is incorrect.  4/5 pays a set amount not part of a multimillion dollar jackpot.  The person who wrote this article seems like they don't know how to play the games, but it does state that people playing birthdays have a higher chance of splitting the jackpot.  Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself.

 

Anyway this article could be summarized to say, "You have a higher chance of splitting Jackpots if you play birthdays or meaningful numbers as they are all likely lower and there's a higher mathematical chance that someone also played the same birthday numbers.

Wouldn't it suck if 123456 did come out?   Imagine how many ways it would be split.  It's certainly not a number worth playing just because of the multiway split it would generate.

My personal rule of thumb has always been:

Don't select past jackpot winners.  What's the likelihood they'll hit again?
And, have you ever checked your selected numbers, to see if they ever won the jackpot or 2nd place?

maximumfun's avatarmaximumfun

We have one fellow who always plays prime numbers. 

Birthday/anniversary numbers - when they come up I always expect the pot to be split.

bigguy5's avatarbigguy5

Quote: Originally posted by TheGameGrl on Oct 9, 2015

The irony in qp's is that on various occasions the very numbers I would have picked, showed up on the QP ticket, So really be it man or machine...the odds remain the same. You either win or you don't. Not much math to that final analysis.

The other part is the allocation of number sets given to state terminals....That too plays a part....

Will be bias on the fact that ball drawn games tend to give you the visual whereas with Computers...its all behind the curtain and rarely disputable should a glitch be sited.

Math  do    play  a  big    part     in  playing    the   pick   3    ,  you  may  not  win  million but  can wint  some  thing,

New York's avatarNew York

You can't win if you don't play. So keep playing!

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by Groppo on Oct 9, 2015

Wouldn't it suck if 123456 did come out?   Imagine how many ways it would be split.  It's certainly not a number worth playing just because of the multiway split it would generate.

My personal rule of thumb has always been:

Don't select past jackpot winners.  What's the likelihood they'll hit again?
And, have you ever checked your selected numbers, to see if they ever won the jackpot or 2nd place?

Locally we've had 6/44, 6/47, 6/49+1 over the years and now 6/49 and there has never been six sequential numbers ever drawn and no combination of six has ever repeated even in all the combined drawings. 

In spite of the evidences I still think there is an advantage for picking one own combinations randomly is for no other reason then to avoid such combinations.  I've gotten lucky and picked 5of6 twice in those games and keep thinking it can happen again or even better and pick a 6of6.

eddessaknight's avatareddessaknight

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Oct 9, 2015

If - or when - 1  2  3  4  5  6  were to hit it would probably set a record for how many ways it would be split.

I Agree!

CT

It will hit eventually & will set a major record.....

But how come in another ostensibly random roulette game,  that black or red haven't hit 50 times in a row?

 

 

Have to be willing to be lucky

Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

LottoMetro's avatarLottoMetro

Quote: Originally posted by eddessaknight on Oct 10, 2015

I Agree!

CT

It will hit eventually & will set a major record.....

But how come in another ostensibly random roulette game,  that black or red haven't hit 50 times in a row?

 

 

Have to be willing to be lucky

Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

Maybe because the odds of that happening are about 1 in 16,809,491,491,404,700?

KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd

Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Oct 9, 2015

I personally would not play 1,2,3,4,5,6, I don't know if they would ever come up, I think the odds of that happening is very high.  So, if a person has time on their side go and play that combination.  It is hard enough to win playing regular combinations.

"I don't know if they would ever come up, I think the odds of that happening is very high."

And what do you suppose the odds of any particular random combination happening are?

KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd

Quote: Originally posted by mikeintexas on Oct 9, 2015

I cannot find the news story about it on the 'net, only posts in this forum (by me) and in other forums, but not long after Texas began their lottery, there was a guy in S. Texas who bought five lines on a ticket and two of the QP lines were the same.  They did a segment about it on the Amarillo news, bringing in some math professor who showed his calculations that the odds of that happening were virtually the same as winning the lottery. (with a tiny bit of difference since the man had bought five lines)

"the odds of that happening were virtually the same as winning the lottery. (with a tiny bit of difference since the man had bought five lines)"

The odds of it happening would be exactly the same as winning the lottery if the ticket had two lines. With 5 lines the difference is quite significant. Playing 5 lines means that lines 2 through 5 offer 4 chances to match line 1. Lines 3 through 5 offer 3 chances to match line 2. Lines 4 and 5 offer 2 chances to match line 3, and line 5 is 1 chance to match line 4. That's a total of 10 chances, making the odds of a repeated line 10 times as likely as winning the lottery with a single line. More importantly, that ticket wasn't the only QP sold. Every ticket with multiple lines is another chance for a ticket to have two identical lines. Sell enough tickets with multiple lines and a ticket with repeated lines is inevitable.

What's also inevitable is that the person who gets that ticket will come forward and other people will think that what happened it wildly improbable.

One more thing that's inevitable is some math "expert" who doesn't know enough about probability telling the media precisely how improbable it is.

savagegoose's avatarsavagegoose

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Oct 11, 2015

"the odds of that happening were virtually the same as winning the lottery. (with a tiny bit of difference since the man had bought five lines)"

The odds of it happening would be exactly the same as winning the lottery if the ticket had two lines. With 5 lines the difference is quite significant. Playing 5 lines means that lines 2 through 5 offer 4 chances to match line 1. Lines 3 through 5 offer 3 chances to match line 2. Lines 4 and 5 offer 2 chances to match line 3, and line 5 is 1 chance to match line 4. That's a total of 10 chances, making the odds of a repeated line 10 times as likely as winning the lottery with a single line. More importantly, that ticket wasn't the only QP sold. Every ticket with multiple lines is another chance for a ticket to have two identical lines. Sell enough tickets with multiple lines and a ticket with repeated lines is inevitable.

What's also inevitable is that the person who gets that ticket will come forward and other people will think that what happened it wildly improbable.

One more thing that's inevitable is some math "expert" who doesn't know enough about probability telling the media precisely how improbable it is.

I wonder how many people will actually play 1 2 3 4 5 6 ? surely it has a lot of bad press, maybe there is a negative bias against it, same with all other sequences

bigbear29

Ky, well, 1,2,3,4,5,6 I think is extremely high odds, I would not play that combination. I stay with the number combinations that feel good about.  Plus, I'm one of those people that don't trust the lottery.  If that combination comes out, that would be a very high payout for the lottery: jackpot, second tier, and lower tiers.  That's because I think a lot of people are playing that combination.

jjtheprince

Best way to win is to play trends.

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Oct 11, 2015

Ky, well, 1,2,3,4,5,6 I think is extremely high odds, I would not play that combination. I stay with the number combinations that feel good about.  Plus, I'm one of those people that don't trust the lottery.  If that combination comes out, that would be a very high payout for the lottery: jackpot, second tier, and lower tiers.  That's because I think a lot of people are playing that combination.

In Ohio's Classic Lotto(6/49) 1365 drawings the combination 1 2 3 4 5 6 would have matched three 26 times and matched 4 twice for $140, that about the same as most other combinations that haven't won a jackpot.

Coin Toss's avatarCoin Toss

Quote: Originally posted by eddessaknight on Oct 10, 2015

I Agree!

CT

It will hit eventually & will set a major record.....

But how come in another ostensibly random roulette game,  that black or red haven't hit 50 times in a row?

 

 

Have to be willing to be lucky

Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

edessaknight,

Those poles they added to roulette games to show the most recent spins increased roulette revenue by 26%.

I think 50 reds or blacks in a row would indicate a biased wheel or a 'mechanic' but I have heard of 16 repeats.

Murgatroyd

Quote: Originally posted by jjtheprince on Oct 11, 2015

Best way to win is to play trends.

And if you do win that way, you'll split the jackpot with a bunch of other people playing trends.

Every system, without exception, has a higher chance of splitting the jackpot than pure random selection.

jjtheprince

Quote: Originally posted by Murgatroyd on Oct 11, 2015

And if you do win that way, you'll split the jackpot with a bunch of other people playing trends.

Every system, without exception, has a higher chance of splitting the jackpot than pure random selection.

Therein lies the problem...a trend has never lost, not once, ever.

KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd

Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Oct 11, 2015

Ky, well, 1,2,3,4,5,6 I think is extremely high odds, I would not play that combination. I stay with the number combinations that feel good about.  Plus, I'm one of those people that don't trust the lottery.  If that combination comes out, that would be a very high payout for the lottery: jackpot, second tier, and lower tiers.  That's because I think a lot of people are playing that combination.

The odds are extremely high. That's how lotteries work. Right now the chance of those numbers coming up in PB is 1 in 292,201,338.  If they do come out it would probably be about the same payout as for any other combination because there's nothing about a combination like 1,2,3,4,26,49 that makes it unusually common. Lots of people play the entire sequence , but the number of people who use 3 or 4 of the numbers is probably comparable to the number of people who play any other set of  3 or 4 birthday numbers.

Even if it turns out that there are an unusually high number of lower tier winners the worst case scenario for the lottery is that they exercise their option to make all prizes parimutuel.

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by jjtheprince on Oct 12, 2015

Therein lies the problem...a trend has never lost, not once, ever.

If that's true and you play trends why haven't you ever won big?  Could it be trends cover more combinations than one person would play?

mypiemaster's avatarmypiemaster

Any set of numbers, allowed in any particular lottery, has the same probability of winning regardless of what anybody says. The odds are the same for that particular set of numbers if fraud is not involved. People always try to turn this into what it is not.

Dynomitemike

Every dog get's a bone sometime. When lady luck say's its your time then and only then is it your time, if it is not your time then it is not your time. You can not fool lady luck:

DELotteryPlyr's avatarDELotteryPlyr

I am not afraid to play numbers like 1-2-3-4-5-6 when they show in systems I play.  But I only play those kinda numbers rarely so very little spent on them, so if I share a jackpot with alot of people - I didn't spend alot to get it. 

gatorsrok

I would not play any series of numbers like 1 2 3 4 5, etc because so many people play them that you are going to have a diluted prize pool.  This actually happened in Florida about a year ago. 

The Fantasy 5 winning numbers were:  1 3 5 7 9

There were 200+ winners compared to the 1 or 2 winners with a regular number combination.  Instead of winning ~$200,000 each, they winners walked with about $2,000 each.  Still not bad, but it had to be disappointing to have your number finally come up but be worth so little.

zirabamuzaale

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Oct 9, 2015

Regarding your statement, "Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself."

That is totally wrong.  You might have a personal opinion that 1,2,3,4,5,6 can never win, but factually you are wrong.  There is nothing about the way the balls are loaded or the physics of the machine that would cause that combination -- or any other combination -- to not be selected.

Hopefully nobody reads your statement and bases their play selections on it.

Anyway, as the saying goes, the lotto depends on pure luck. Nonetheless, any combination can win big any day. As for 1,2,3,4,5,6 winning no number in the renowned lotto systems has had a winner winning using those numbers. Even the great lotto guru, Gail Howard, argues that she has never seen any lotto that wins using over three 4 consecutive numbers. A couple of years ago due to my way of playing chronologically, I played 1,2,3,4, 18,23 and I was surprised when I came up with the numbers, 1,2,3  that enabled me to win about $7 in The Pick (Arizona)!!!

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