$450 MILLION: Powerball sales bonanza sparks early jackpot increase

Jan 5, 2016, 12:01 pm (89 comments)

Powerball

6th-biggest lottery jackpot in US history

By Todd Northrop

Due to larger than expected sales volume, the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL) has raised the official Powerball lottery jackpot estimate for Wednesday's drawing to $450 million.

The all-important lump-sum cash value of the jackpot has been raised to $275.4 million.

The newly-increased annuity and cash value jackpot amounts are both the 6th-largest ever recorded in United States lottery history. The top-25 annuity and cash value jackpots are listed below.

"Strong Powerball sales mean more revenue for public education in Texas and for other important causes supported by lotteries across the country," said Gary Grief, executive director of the Texas Lottery and chair of the Powerball game group.

The Powerball drawing will be contacted Wednesday night at 10:59 pm Eastern Time (7:59 pm Pacific).  The mammoth grand prize started at $40 million on Nov. 7, 2015, and is the result of 17 drawings with no jackpot winner.

After the Saturday evening Powerball drawing, when it was determined that there were no jackpot winners, the new jackpot estimate for Wednesday was set at $400 million, with a cash value of $244.8 million. The lottery sets the initial estimates based on what they conservatively believe the ticket sales will be prior to the next drawing. When it becomes clear that actual ticket sales are vastly outstripping the initial projections, the lotteries raise the jackpot estimate accordingly — as they did today.

It is quite possible that by the time the drawing occurs tomorrow night, the jackpot will be further increased. The final jackpot tally is announced during the live drawing show.

Lottery players seeking to check the winning numbers Wednesday night are urged to use USA Mega (www.usamega.com). State lottery Web sites are normally brought to a standstill during busy periods, while USA Mega normally remains responsive.

Powerball drawing results will be posted immediately after the 10:59 pm drawing at USA Mega. The number of winners and new jackpot will be announced after all participating Powerball states have reported their data, which normally occurs within a couple of hours after the drawing.

Tickets will remain on sale typically until 10:45 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, although players should check with a lottery retailer in their state for the exact sales cutoff time. Players are advised not to wait until the last minute.

The odds of winning the jackpot are approximately 1 in 292 million. The odds of winning any of the Powerball prizes are approximately 1 in 25.

Powerball tickets cost $2 each.

Lottery players can see an after-tax analysis of the current Powerball jackpot by visiting USA Mega's Jackpot Analysis page.

Powerball features nine different prize levels, ranging from $4 all the way up to the jackpot. Players can win even if they just match one number — the Powerball number.

All states except California also offer the Power Play option for an extra $1 per ticket purchased. The Power Play multiplies any non-jackpot prizes won by the Power Play number drawn that evening.

Players who purchase the Power Play and win second prize will automatically have their prize increased by 2x to $2 million.

Top 25 United States lottery jackpots of all time

Wednesday's Powerball jackpot currently stands tied for the 6th-largest lottery jackpot of all time in the United States.  That position may rise again before the drawing, as lotteries are typically conservative in their initial estimates, and brisk sales may push the jackpot estimate higher by draw time.

  1. Mega Millions: $656 million, Mar. 30, 2012 - Illinois, Kansas, Maryland
  2. Mega Millions: $648 million, Dec. 17, 2013 - California, Georgia
  3. Powerball: $590.5 million, May 18, 2013 - Florida
  4. Powerball: $587.5 million, Nov. 28, 2012 - Arizona, Missouri
  5. Powerball: $564.1 million, Feb. 11, 2015 - North Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas
  6. Powerball: $450 million, Jan. 6, 2016 - Preliminary estimate, not won yet
  7. Powerball: $448.4 million, Aug. 7, 2013 - Minnesota, New Jersey (2)
  8. Powerball: $425.3 million, Feb. 19, 2014 - California
  9. Mega Millions: $414 million, Mar. 18, 2014 - Florida, Maryland
  10. Powerball: $399.4 million, Sep. 18, 2013 - South Carolina
  11. Mega Millions: $390 million, Mar. 6, 2007 - Georgia, New Jersey
  12. Mega Millions: $380 million, Jan. 4, 2011 - Idaho, Washington
  13. Powerball: $365 million, Feb. 18, 2006 - Nebraska
  14. The Big Game: $363 million, May 9, 2000 - Illinois, Michigan
  15. Powerball: $340 million, Oct. 19, 2005 - Oregon
  16. Powerball: $338.3 million, Mar. 23, 2013 - New Jersey
  17. Powerball: $337 million, Aug. 15, 2012 - Michigan
  18. Powerball: $336.4 million, Feb. 11, 2012 - Rhode Island
  19. Mega Millions: $336 million, Aug. 28, 2009 - California, New York
  20. The Big Game: $331 million, Apr. 16, 2002 - Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey
  21. Mega Millions: $330 million, Aug. 31, 2007 - Maryland, New Jersey, Texas, Virginia
  22. Mega Millions: $326 million, Nov. 4, 2014 - New York
  23. Mega Millions: $319 million, Mar. 25, 2011 - New York
  24. Mega Millions: $315 million, Nov. 15, 2005 - California
  25. Powerball: $314.9 million, Dec. 25, 2002 - West Virginia

The number of jackpots in the top 25, by lottery game, are:

  • Powerball: 13
  • Mega Millions: 10
  • The Big Game: 2

The Big Game is the original name of Mega Millions, from the game's first drawing on Sep. 6, 1996 through May 14, 2002.  The name was changed to Mega Millions starting with the May 17, 2002 drawing.

Top 25 cash value jackpots

Since many lottery winners collect their winnings in cash, the lump-sum payout is an important measure of what a winning ticket could be worth.

Looking at the cash value, the upcoming Powerball jackpot ranks as the 6th-largest cash value in U.S. history.

  1. Mega Millions: $471 million cash, Mar. 30, 2012 ($656 million annuity) - Illinois, Kansas, Maryland
  2. Powerball: $384.7 million cash, Nov. 28, 2012 ($587.5 million annuity) - Arizona, Missouri
  3. Powerball: $381.1 million cash, Feb. 11, 2015 ($564.1 million annuity) - North Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas
  4. Powerball: $370.9 million cash, May 18, 2013 ($590.5 million annuity) - Florida
  5. Mega Millions: $347.6 million cash, Dec. 17, 2013 ($648 million annuity) - California, Georgia
  6. Powerball: $275.4 million cash, Jan. 6, 2016 ($450 million annuity) - Preliminary estimate, not won yet
  7. Powerball: $258.2 million cash, Aug. 7, 2013 ($448.4 million annuity) - Minnesota, New Jersey (2)
  8. Mega Millions: $240 million cash, Jan. 4, 2011 ($380 million annuity) - Idaho, Washington
  9. Mega Millions: $233.1 million cash, Mar. 6, 2007 ($390 million annuity) - Georgia, New Jersey
  10. Mega Millions: $230.9 million cash, Mar. 18, 2014 ($414 million annuity) - Florida, Maryland
  11. Powerball: $227.8 million cash, Feb. 19, 2014 ($425.3 million annuity) - California
  12. Powerball: $224.7 million cash, Aug. 15, 2012 ($337 million annuity) - Michigan
  13. Powerball: $223.3 million cash, Sep. 18, 2013 ($399.4 million annuity) - South Carolina
  14. Mega Millions: $214 million cash, Aug. 28, 2009 ($336 million annuity) - California, New York
  15. Powerball: $211 million cash, Mar. 23, 2013 ($338.3 million annuity) - New Jersey
  16. Powerball: $210 million cash, Feb. 11, 2012 ($336.4 million annuity) - Rhode Island
  17. Mega Millions: $202.9 million cash, Mar. 25, 2011 ($319 million annuity) - New York
  18. Mega Millions: $197.5 million cash, Nov. 4, 2014 ($326 million annuity) - New York
  19. Powerball: $197.4 million cash, Sep. 30, 2015 ($310.5 million annuity) - Michigan
  20. Mega Millions: $194.4 million cash, Aug. 31, 2007 ($330 million annuity) - Maryland, New Jersey, Texas, Virginia
  21. Mega Millions: $185 million cash, Nov. 15, 2005 ($315 million annuity) - California
  22. The Big Game: $180 million cash, May 9, 2000 ($363 million annuity) - Illinois, Michigan
  23. Mega Millions: $177.3 million cash, Jan. 16, 2015 ($270 million annuity) - Illinois
  24. Powerball: $177.3 million cash, Feb. 18, 2006 ($365 million annuity) - Nebraska
  25. Powerball: $170.5 million cash, Dec. 25, 2002 ($314.9 million annuity) - West Virginia

The number of jackpot cash values in the top 25, by lottery game, are:

  • Powerball: 13
  • Mega Millions: 11
  • The Big Game: 1

News story photo(Click to display full-size in gallery)

Lottery Post Staff

Comments

savagegoose's avatarsavagegoose

keep those doggies rolling

ThatScaryChick's avatarThatScaryChick

Good luck to everyone playing! Thumbs Up

BBLL's avatarBBLL

Big moneyBoxing

travelintrucker's avatartravelintrucker

I have to deliver a load in eastern Pennsylvania. I had $5 worth of winners to redeem. So, I decided to stop at Penn 80 Flying J truck stop where Steve Peloquin won Mega Millions back in July. Surprisingly, there was no line. In fact, I had to wait about 3 mins. for someone to come over. I bought 2 quick picks powered up with the $5. My Mega numbers are alright. I really like my Powerball numbers. Good luck everyone!

Prolific-Atom

5 numbers with powerplay. 2 my own numbers, 3 qp Then wait for Lady luck. Good luck all of you

noise-gate

Wonderful- As Little Richard once said " You keeping talking like that, you gonna make me scream like a white woman in church."

Piaceri

Eek

 

See Ya!I'm volunteering as guinea pig to win a single ticket winner.

 

SINGLEWINNERSINGLEWINNERSINGLEWINNER

Groppo's avatarGroppo

Quote: Originally posted by travelintrucker on Jan 5, 2016

I have to deliver a load in eastern Pennsylvania. I had $5 worth of winners to redeem. So, I decided to stop at Penn 80 Flying J truck stop where Steve Peloquin won Mega Millions back in July. Surprisingly, there was no line. In fact, I had to wait about 3 mins. for someone to come over. I bought 2 quick picks powered up with the $5. My Mega numbers are alright. I really like my Powerball numbers. Good luck everyone!

Yes, thank you, you too.

But seriously folks, all I want is a couple of million, and I'll be set.

So, if you are the sole winner, I now ask for $1 million even. It was .5,
then, .75.  I now want the whole million, since the jp just got upped 50 million.

Ron5995

MUSL estimates are all too often portrayed as "fact" by participating lotteries in promotional ads, and don't reflect reality. The #3 jackpot won in Florida a few years ago was widely advertised as $600 million annuity, and yet only paid out $590 million annuity. Deceptive.

Sure, the FL winner still made out well, but many players who didn't win, played in large part, due to seeing the $600 million advertised number, which turned out be a faulty estimate - again, to reiterate, widely advertised, in effect, as fact, by many participating lotteries.

Rambling on, but point is that a $50 million jackpot estimate jump seems pretty steep. Don't put too much stock in that being real. My rule of thumb, since the Florida incident, is 1/2 of a jump is probably legit. So $425 million annuity (50 / 2) is probably a safe estimate. Good luck to all who play.

maximumfun's avatarmaximumfun

Good Luck to us!  Holding out for a LP winner!

BBLL's avatarBBLL

Quote: Originally posted by maximumfun on Jan 5, 2016

Good Luck to us!  Holding out for a LP winner!

That would be amazing.

Spiritualist

Quote: Originally posted by Ron5995 on Jan 5, 2016

MUSL estimates are all too often portrayed as "fact" by participating lotteries in promotional ads, and don't reflect reality. The #3 jackpot won in Florida a few years ago was widely advertised as $600 million annuity, and yet only paid out $590 million annuity. Deceptive.

Sure, the FL winner still made out well, but many players who didn't win, played in large part, due to seeing the $600 million advertised number, which turned out be a faulty estimate - again, to reiterate, widely advertised, in effect, as fact, by many participating lotteries.

Rambling on, but point is that a $50 million jackpot estimate jump seems pretty steep. Don't put too much stock in that being real. My rule of thumb, since the Florida incident, is 1/2 of a jump is probably legit. So $425 million annuity (50 / 2) is probably a safe estimate. Good luck to all who play.

Very good point. Thanks for adding clarity to this issue. 

 

Best of luck to all the lottery players out there!

weshar75's avatarweshar75

I would like to thank in advance all the little people who bought tickets and let me win this jackpot and no I will not be handing out any money to any one so don't ask this money is all mine baby!-weshar75

US Flag

HoLeeKau's avatarHoLeeKau

I just bought my line for the next draw from an Albertson's vending machine.  So if someone in Boise wins from there, you'll know it's me.  Goof

Guru101's avatarGuru101

Quote: Originally posted by Ron5995 on Jan 5, 2016

MUSL estimates are all too often portrayed as "fact" by participating lotteries in promotional ads, and don't reflect reality. The #3 jackpot won in Florida a few years ago was widely advertised as $600 million annuity, and yet only paid out $590 million annuity. Deceptive.

Sure, the FL winner still made out well, but many players who didn't win, played in large part, due to seeing the $600 million advertised number, which turned out be a faulty estimate - again, to reiterate, widely advertised, in effect, as fact, by many participating lotteries.

Rambling on, but point is that a $50 million jackpot estimate jump seems pretty steep. Don't put too much stock in that being real. My rule of thumb, since the Florida incident, is 1/2 of a jump is probably legit. So $425 million annuity (50 / 2) is probably a safe estimate. Good luck to all who play.

I don't believe they were being "deceptive" advertising a $600m jackpot. It is in fact an estimate after all. They can't know beforehand the exact amount the jackpot will be because there are too many factors. At super high jackpot levels, it is to be expected that their estimates have a greater degree of variance as opposed to lower jackpot levels. Sometimes their estimates are higher, sometimes they're lower. I'd say just a $10m difference at those levels is actually pretty close. Surely had they advertised a $600m jackpot, and then come draw time, the jackpot was actually $610m, you wouldn't be calling them deceptive.

GGStarlings's avatarGGStarlings

Quote: Originally posted by HoLeeKau on Jan 5, 2016

I just bought my line for the next draw from an Albertson's vending machine.  So if someone in Boise wins from there, you'll know it's me.  Goof

Hey now, HoLeeKau, that means I'll have to buy one from Albertsons too.  Just to deepen the mystery.  Wink

HoLeeKau's avatarHoLeeKau

Quote: Originally posted by GGStarlings on Jan 5, 2016

Hey now, HoLeeKau, that means I'll have to buy one from Albertsons too.  Just to deepen the mystery.  Wink

LOL  Good luck, GG!  Hope it comes to Boise again.  It's been too long.

Bilionario's avatarBilionario

Quote: Originally posted by maximumfun on Jan 5, 2016

Good Luck to us!  Holding out for a LP winner!

...watch this space.

GGStarlings's avatarGGStarlings

Quote: Originally posted by HoLeeKau on Jan 5, 2016

LOL  Good luck, GG!  Hope it comes to Boise again.  It's been too long.

Yes, it's been awhile, huh.  Good luck to you too, man Thumbs Up

THRIFTY's avatarTHRIFTY

46-53-55-56-63 + 22
15-34-47-56-58 + 05
04-16-58-65-68 + 19
03-04-21-55-60 + 07
13-17-22-28-63 + 08
14-18-31-33-54 + 10
09-19-44-50-59 + 22
09-15-29-31-44 + 11
18-44-45-58-65 + 25
06-15-30-32-39 + 09
03-04-31-37-44 + 26
24-44-46-47-53 + 02
15-21-24-37-46 + 12
03-27-35-46-65 + 14
16-19-27-40-46 + 18
05-11-30-38-39 + 02
18-22-25-26-49 + 16
36-49-63-64-66 + 14
01-12-18-21-29 + 22
01-06-29-42-53 + 11
07-14-38-49-69 + 15
01-12-21-22-52 + 05
17-35-38-64-69 + 20
07-41-58-65-67 + 09
07-13-16-39-56 + 14
17-30-45-53-56 + 19
10-19-50-56-58 + 01
02-12-16-57-61 + 25
06-35-40-41-63 + 07
04-20-42-62-67 + 01
28-30-40-43-45 + 08
09-14-24-43-51 + 09
20-34-38-54-62 + 01
05-39-48-62-68 + 12
15-25-32-34-35 + 20
09-22-50-62-67 + 26
03-13-22-31-66 + 05
17-18-48-60-67 + 09
13-35-40-56-68 + 15
06-35-50-55-62 + 05
12-21-36-53-57 + 09
13-27-36-59-64 + 01
16-34-40-50-54 + 13
02-08-11-13-14 + 02
30-40-52-65-68 + 10
09-10-20-31-62 + 06
01-21-46-61-67 + 06
23-25-30-62-68 + 15
10-38-42-51-58 + 22
08-19-26-58-67 + 21

BR3TT722

Dreaming BIG!!!!

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Now that PB jackpot is $450M I've decided to buy 10 PB tickets with no guarantee instead of 15 MM tickets with every megaball and a guarantee of a $1 win.

faber98

Quote: Originally posted by THRIFTY on Jan 5, 2016

46-53-55-56-63 + 22
15-34-47-56-58 + 05
04-16-58-65-68 + 19
03-04-21-55-60 + 07
13-17-22-28-63 + 08
14-18-31-33-54 + 10
09-19-44-50-59 + 22
09-15-29-31-44 + 11
18-44-45-58-65 + 25
06-15-30-32-39 + 09
03-04-31-37-44 + 26
24-44-46-47-53 + 02
15-21-24-37-46 + 12
03-27-35-46-65 + 14
16-19-27-40-46 + 18
05-11-30-38-39 + 02
18-22-25-26-49 + 16
36-49-63-64-66 + 14
01-12-18-21-29 + 22
01-06-29-42-53 + 11
07-14-38-49-69 + 15
01-12-21-22-52 + 05
17-35-38-64-69 + 20
07-41-58-65-67 + 09
07-13-16-39-56 + 14
17-30-45-53-56 + 19
10-19-50-56-58 + 01
02-12-16-57-61 + 25
06-35-40-41-63 + 07
04-20-42-62-67 + 01
28-30-40-43-45 + 08
09-14-24-43-51 + 09
20-34-38-54-62 + 01
05-39-48-62-68 + 12
15-25-32-34-35 + 20
09-22-50-62-67 + 26
03-13-22-31-66 + 05
17-18-48-60-67 + 09
13-35-40-56-68 + 15
06-35-50-55-62 + 05
12-21-36-53-57 + 09
13-27-36-59-64 + 01
16-34-40-50-54 + 13
02-08-11-13-14 + 02
30-40-52-65-68 + 10
09-10-20-31-62 + 06
01-21-46-61-67 + 06
23-25-30-62-68 + 15
10-38-42-51-58 + 22
08-19-26-58-67 + 21

just went out and bought the exact same numbers so you and i can share the jackpot.

whiteballz's avatarwhiteballz

Gotta be in it to win it.

Teddi's avatarTeddi

Dear God:

I don't go to strip clubs with wads of cash left in unlocked cars; I'm not an alcoholic, drug addict or recovering addict of any kind; I've never been involved in an armed robbery; I don't have a boyfriend with a condiment as a nickname; I've never, nor will I ever, buy 400 pairs of the same pants.

I know I'm not the kind of person to have or do any of these things, even so, could you please let me win this one?

LottoLucy's avatarLottoLucy

OK, I'm weak.  I have no will power.  I caved.

I have not bought a powerball ticket since the matrix change.  I said that I would only play when it was $500 million or more.  But I have had a bad day and when my husband very nicely offered to stop and pick me up some tickets I said yes.

so, I may be weak and have no will power.  I may have caved.  But...

 

I'M IN! 

Get paid's avatarGet paid

Its her money,it doesn,t help me one way or the other.I,m going to buy me a powerball ticket an see if the lottery gods will bless me.I don,t care what marie does with her money.three dollars an a dream.

Get paid's avatarGet paid

Sorry wrong tread,this is about marie.

HoLeeKau's avatarHoLeeKau

Well, Business Insider has declared that it's not worth buying a ticket.  I wonder if I can take my ticket back for a refund before the drawing?

"Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value." The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes. If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me."

http://news.yahoo.com/did-math-450-million-powerball-214235140.html?nf=1

Todd's avatarTodd

Quote: Originally posted by HoLeeKau on Jan 5, 2016

Well, Business Insider has declared that it's not worth buying a ticket.  I wonder if I can take my ticket back for a refund before the drawing?

"Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value." The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes. If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me."

http://news.yahoo.com/did-math-450-million-powerball-214235140.html?nf=1

You wonder if you can get a refund on a lottery ticket?  Are you serious?  Hopefully you were kidding.

It's not surprising to see a mainstream news source claiming lotteries are bad bets.  In case you haven't noticed, every mainstream news source says playing ANY lottery game is stupid.

Tell that to the guy who wins.

Also, I wasn't aware that spending $2 on a lottery ticket was such a big deal to the folks at Business Insider.  The reporter probably spent double that amount on their last cup of coffee.  Funny how they spend all that time obsessing over a $2 lottery ticket.  Pretty dumb.

dpoly1's avatardpoly1

My new cottage will be on 7.4 acres and only $995,000!

THRIFTY's avatarTHRIFTY

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Jan 5, 2016

You wonder if you can get a refund on a lottery ticket?  Are you serious?  Hopefully you were kidding.

It's not surprising to see a mainstream news source claiming lotteries are bad bets.  In case you haven't noticed, every mainstream news source says playing ANY lottery game is stupid.

Tell that to the guy who wins.

Also, I wasn't aware that spending $2 on a lottery ticket was such a big deal to the folks at Business Insider.  The reporter probably spent double that amount on their last cup of coffee.  Funny how they spend all that time obsessing over a $2 lottery ticket.  Pretty dumb.

0 IN 292,201,338 VERSUS 1 IN 292,201,338 TO WIN THE JACKPOT.

"I play only to win the big jackpot, regardless of the odds. I only buy a ticket or two. There is not much difference between 1 or 100 in 292,201,338 but there is a huge difference between those odds and 0 in 292,201,338. In other words not much reason to buy several tickets, just one." RAY

THRIFTY's avatarTHRIFTY

01-03-30-55-62 / 03
07-24-32-38-59 / 25
24-28-31-32-34 / 20
04-39-40-41-48 / 13
17-21-38-39-64 / 11
03-23-28-40-54 / 09
09-10-12-36-37 / 26
17-20-21-48-57 / 20
01-21-50-52-62 / 12
04-16-29-46-49 / 12
17-21-25-39-45 / 01
04-22-59-66-69 / 06
13-32-45-46-47 / 12
34-35-58-59-69 / 13
23-32-41-48-61 / 06
05-15-21-39-59 / 15
01-04-16-58-69 / 04
11-15-18-57-68 / 21
05-23-48-64-68 / 16
03-16-39-46-54 / 06
14-20-28-60-66 / 26
07-08-30-60-63 / 18
10-13-25-32-33 / 10
08-11-15-25-35 / 05
24-26-30-65-68 / 19
03-17-32-52-56 / 06
12-22-31-35-38 / 10
28-33-34-45-51 / 19
06-30-44-58-62 / 20
04-07-20-30-31 / 23
34-39-44-53-58 / 16
25-27-33-45-48 / 18
07-24-32-36-49 / 13
09-23-34-62-64 / 08
19-28-36-43-61 / 19
11-12-14-40-63 / 19
27-35-45-49-65 / 16
42-60-62-63-67 / 04
05-35-49-63-67 / 19
13-15-21-49-67 / 17
38-45-47-58-61 / 03
10-18-41-68-69 / 22
01-05-19-21-46 / 11
08-09-12-33-58 / 11
03-19-21-29-67 / 26
05-11-21-44-45 / 14
20-21-41-50-55 / 12
08-17-25-37-60 / 01
30-34-43-54-58 / 06
03-35-46-54-66 / 18

VenomV12

Wouldn't that be something if this thing hit a billion dollars or more. That would be kind of crazy to see. As always I would happily take a million and quietly disappear. Smile

Artist77's avatarArtist77

My heroic efforts and sob story to get my tickets in DC.

-Left work 30 minutes early ....on the coldest day of the year...so I could make it to a convenience store (closes at 6 pm) by the metro.

-This meant I skipped my bus...2 blocks from work... that would take me directly to my neighborhood. 

-Got my tickets for 4 drawings and went downstairs to the metro. Missed the train by 10 seconds that would take me to the Pentagon where I could take a bus home.

-Ran up and out of metro to catch another bus across the street  that also goes to my neighborhood. Waited 20 minutes and the bus zipped by and failed to stop for any of us.

-Ran back downstairs to metro and caught a train with a second the spare.

-Got off at the Pentagon to catch my bus and two were there. Ended up on the one where the driver went on a 15 minute break while the other bus passed us by.

Yes...I deserve to win. Lol

LottoMetro's avatarLottoMetro

Quote: Originally posted by Ron5995 on Jan 5, 2016

MUSL estimates are all too often portrayed as "fact" by participating lotteries in promotional ads, and don't reflect reality. The #3 jackpot won in Florida a few years ago was widely advertised as $600 million annuity, and yet only paid out $590 million annuity. Deceptive.

Sure, the FL winner still made out well, but many players who didn't win, played in large part, due to seeing the $600 million advertised number, which turned out be a faulty estimate - again, to reiterate, widely advertised, in effect, as fact, by many participating lotteries.

Rambling on, but point is that a $50 million jackpot estimate jump seems pretty steep. Don't put too much stock in that being real. My rule of thumb, since the Florida incident, is 1/2 of a jump is probably legit. So $425 million annuity (50 / 2) is probably a safe estimate. Good luck to all who play.

https://www.lotterypost.com/news/297783/4417127

See my post from 2 days ago. They underestimated sales for the last draw and hence this coming draw. It seems like a big leap but it's really not considering they were under-advertising to begin with. Of course they would rather "raise" the jackpot to drum up more excitement than advertise it at proper levels from the start.

LottoLucy's avatarLottoLucy

Quote: Originally posted by Artist77 on Jan 5, 2016

My heroic efforts and sob story to get my tickets in DC.

-Left work 30 minutes early ....on the coldest day of the year...so I could make it to a convenience store (closes at 6 pm) by the metro.

-This meant I skipped my bus...2 blocks from work... that would take me directly to my neighborhood. 

-Got my tickets for 4 drawings and went downstairs to the metro. Missed the train by 10 seconds that would take me to the Pentagon where I could take a bus home.

-Ran up and out of metro to catch another bus across the street  that also goes to my neighborhood. Waited 20 minutes and the bus zipped by and failed to stop for any of us.

-Ran back downstairs to metro and caught a train with a second the spare.

-Got off at the Pentagon to catch my bus and two were there. Ended up on the one where the driver went on a 15 minute break while the other bus passed us by.

Yes...I deserve to win. Lol

You certainly worked for your ticket! 

Ever think about taking the red line over to Maryland where you can claim your win anonymously?

 

Good Luck!

LottoMetro's avatarLottoMetro

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Jan 5, 2016

You wonder if you can get a refund on a lottery ticket?  Are you serious?  Hopefully you were kidding.

It's not surprising to see a mainstream news source claiming lotteries are bad bets.  In case you haven't noticed, every mainstream news source says playing ANY lottery game is stupid.

Tell that to the guy who wins.

Also, I wasn't aware that spending $2 on a lottery ticket was such a big deal to the folks at Business Insider.  The reporter probably spent double that amount on their last cup of coffee.  Funny how they spend all that time obsessing over a $2 lottery ticket.  Pretty dumb.

The thing about "experts" is that they will always jump on the opportunity to come out and be right about something, no matter how meaningless that something is.

Artist77's avatarArtist77

Quote: Originally posted by LottoLucy on Jan 5, 2016

You certainly worked for your ticket! 

Ever think about taking the red line over to Maryland where you can claim your win anonymously?

 

Good Luck!

Yea...people have mentioned that to me but I work long hours in NW DC and live in nova. Some weekend though I need to do this. I don't live near a metro so waiting on my bus back into va on a weekend would take forever. But it would be a perfect way to win.

I could use Todd's lottery places app. in MD.

 

Todd... I would like a refund if I do not win also. Lol

rcbbuckeye's avatarrcbbuckeye

Quote: Originally posted by Piaceri on Jan 5, 2016

Eek

 

See Ya!I'm volunteering as guinea pig to win a single ticket winner.

 

SINGLEWINNERSINGLEWINNERSINGLEWINNER

If I don't win it I hope one of us Texan LP members win it.

rcbbuckeye's avatarrcbbuckeye

Quote: Originally posted by LottoLucy on Jan 5, 2016

OK, I'm weak.  I have no will power.  I caved.

I have not bought a powerball ticket since the matrix change.  I said that I would only play when it was $500 million or more.  But I have had a bad day and when my husband very nicely offered to stop and pick me up some tickets I said yes.

so, I may be weak and have no will power.  I may have caved.  But...

 

I'M IN! 

Impossible to have a chance unless you are in!

Artist77's avatarArtist77

So if this thing rolls, I am assuming no more than 4 more drawings...or I will have to leave work early to get tickets. I think we might be at 750 million or more in 4 more drawings??? Then I can go back to not playing again. Lol

Murgatroyd

Quote: Originally posted by HoLeeKau on Jan 5, 2016

Well, Business Insider has declared that it's not worth buying a ticket.  I wonder if I can take my ticket back for a refund before the drawing?

"Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value." The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes. If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me."

http://news.yahoo.com/did-math-450-million-powerball-214235140.html?nf=1

If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.

Note that with probabilities as small as the ones in the lottery, the "long run" over which things average out is much longer than any one player's lifetime.

Stack47

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Jan 5, 2016

The thing about "experts" is that they will always jump on the opportunity to come out and be right about something, no matter how meaningless that something is.

Yep, every time a jackpot gets into the "must win" range, the so called experts come out of the woodwork. The NFL playoffs are just starting, the college football final is next week, the NBA and college basketball are mid season, and the presidential primaries are over a month away so it's a slow news day/week/month and the PB jackpot is the news.

The "experts" either tell us why buying a ticket is a bad idea or will tell us how to win. For those of us that discuss lottery stuff, it's simple; if a person can't afford to buy a ticket, it's a bad idea and if we want a chance to win, we buy a ticket(s).

Erzulieredeyes's avatarErzulieredeyes

Quote: Originally posted by dpoly1 on Jan 5, 2016

My new cottage will be on 7.4 acres and only $995,000!

That's an appropriate lottery winner/millionaires house! lol Nice price too. Good luck!

Piaceri

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Jan 5, 2016

If I don't win it I hope one of us Texan LP members win it.

I Agree!  Texas is due a big win. Thumbs Up Any one of us will do, if I don't. Wink

Prob988

The cash value suggests that the lottery is supposing it will have sales of $220M, or sell 110M tickets.

The randomized Poisson distribution for the numbers of winners is as in the following table:

 

k, number of winners p(m,k)
0 67.58%
1 26.48%
2 5.19%
3 0.68%
4 0.07%
5 0.01%

 

The most probable outcome at this point is still another rollover, which is an indication of how hard they've made Powerball to win.

The pretax expectation value is a rather poor 0.60.

Don't spend your last dime, you may regret not having that dime if it rolls again, as is likely as of now.

Original Bey's avatarOriginal Bey

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Jan 5, 2016

You wonder if you can get a refund on a lottery ticket?  Are you serious?  Hopefully you were kidding.

It's not surprising to see a mainstream news source claiming lotteries are bad bets.  In case you haven't noticed, every mainstream news source says playing ANY lottery game is stupid.

Tell that to the guy who wins.

Also, I wasn't aware that spending $2 on a lottery ticket was such a big deal to the folks at Business Insider.  The reporter probably spent double that amount on their last cup of coffee.  Funny how they spend all that time obsessing over a $2 lottery ticket.  Pretty dumb.

  • Add to that the fact that reportes flaunt their tickets and make light of it. They are hoping to be the subject of the next big news story. They just read the script but in truth dream as every other player does. Things that make you go hmmm...
AbsolutelyFun

Article is titled: We did the math for the $450 million Powerball jackpot and concluded it's not worth buying a ticket

Then they say, "Given the overwhelming likelihood — a 96% probability — that we wind up matching absolutely nothing and therefore wind up just throwing our $2 out the window, our expected value ends up being $0.14 in the red. We would need a prize of around $500 million to get a positive expected value."

Hey close enough to make it worth the risk.  Besides if you don't play then your odds are even worse...like uhhhh ZERO!

So I dunno about you guys but I like my odds.

crazyjaney

The comments on this thread are truly awesome!!! I love this place!!!

Teddi's avatarTeddi

Oh well, Robert Uomini said playing the lottery is ridiculous when you consider the odds and as a mathematician he knew playing the lottery made no sense. He still played and he won $22 million. Isn't that the reason lotteries are so successful? Logically we all know the odds of winning are absurd. But the reality is, someone always wins eventually. As long as you don't have a gambling problem, if you can afford to spend $1 or $2 on a ticket, who's it hurting?

mypiemaster's avatarmypiemaster

"COME TO MAMA". This baby is all mine.

noise-gate

Quote: Originally posted by dpoly1 on Jan 5, 2016

My new cottage will be on 7.4 acres and only $995,000!

That's Small, what you want is something that will melt the eyeballs,something like this!!

mypiemaster's avatarmypiemaster

Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on Jan 5, 2016

That's Small, what you want is something that will melt the eyeballs,something like this!!

This is actually a great time for me, to win the MM jackpot because nobody will even care or notice. Talk about hiding in plain sight. Yeah my eyeballs are beginning to stretch. Too many people to staff that very humble abode.

VenomV12

Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on Jan 5, 2016

That's Small, what you want is something that will melt the eyeballs,something like this!!

Even if you win this jackpot Oprah will still have more money than you and probably won't sell you her house. Smile

En ReVal

Texas was part of the last big win in Feb. 2015. Hopefully, we can pull a couple 2nd prizes, but you never know.  Much success to you!

RedStang's avatarRedStang

If they bump it i think 525 may be next.

LottoMetro's avatarLottoMetro

Quote: Originally posted by RedStang on Jan 6, 2016

If they bump it i think 525 may be next.

I could be wrong but I think this would be quite a stretch. They would need nearly $200 million sales more than their original projection....on a Wednesday.....

Now to start the next drawing? Sure, though I am thinking it would be closer to $600M.

savagegoose's avatarsavagegoose

after reading how worthless my $2 ticket was,  i tossed it out the window. thanks math guys!

Suzy-Dittlenose

Quote: Originally posted by RedStang on Jan 6, 2016

If they bump it i think 525 may be next.

I'll predict a bump to 510 million.  Anyone else want to guesstimate the final pot?

Wink 

music*'s avatarmusic*

490 million is my guess. I think that it will be won this draw.Conehead

myturn's avatarmyturn

If you play, maybe these states would be your best bet!

 

States where lottery winners could remain anonymous

Currently six states — Delaware, Kansas, Maryland, North Dakota, Ohio and South Carolina — allow lottery winners to remain anonymous. And four more — Colorado, Connecticut, Vermont and Massachusetts — allow anonymity if the winners claim their winnings through a trust.

MaximumMillions

By the way I dreamt a (chubby) Hawai'ian won it. Just wanted tp put that out there. LOL

MaximumMillions

Quote: Originally posted by Teddi on Jan 5, 2016

Dear God:

I don't go to strip clubs with wads of cash left in unlocked cars; I'm not an alcoholic, drug addict or recovering addict of any kind; I've never been involved in an armed robbery; I don't have a boyfriend with a condiment as a nickname; I've never, nor will I ever, buy 400 pairs of the same pants.

I know I'm not the kind of person to have or do any of these things, even so, could you please let me win this one?

All of the above is why people win.

I'm sorry Teddi, you need to make some changes if you want to win the big bucks!

MaximumMillions

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Jan 5, 2016

You wonder if you can get a refund on a lottery ticket?  Are you serious?  Hopefully you were kidding.

It's not surprising to see a mainstream news source claiming lotteries are bad bets.  In case you haven't noticed, every mainstream news source says playing ANY lottery game is stupid.

Tell that to the guy who wins.

Also, I wasn't aware that spending $2 on a lottery ticket was such a big deal to the folks at Business Insider.  The reporter probably spent double that amount on their last cup of coffee.  Funny how they spend all that time obsessing over a $2 lottery ticket.  Pretty dumb.

Exactly what I don't get, people make multiple 10$ Starbucks runs a day but get all preachy over a 5$ lottery ticket entertainment-buy that could possibly have you fly first class for the rest of your live instead of giving you diabetes.

AbsolutelyFun

Quote: Originally posted by Prob988 on Jan 5, 2016

The cash value suggests that the lottery is supposing it will have sales of $220M, or sell 110M tickets.

The randomized Poisson distribution for the numbers of winners is as in the following table:

 

k, number of winners p(m,k)
0 67.58%
1 26.48%
2 5.19%
3 0.68%
4 0.07%
5 0.01%

 

The most probable outcome at this point is still another rollover, which is an indication of how hard they've made Powerball to win.

The pretax expectation value is a rather poor 0.60.

Don't spend your last dime, you may regret not having that dime if it rolls again, as is likely as of now.

YES! I think it will rollover again and when it does it will easily surpass the previous record PB Jackpot of $590.5 Million won by Gloria C. MacKenzie out of Zephyrhills, FL back in 2013. What with the odds higher than they used to be (since the PB change on October 4, 2015) that translates into the lottery having to sell every permutation and combination possible to guarantee a winner.  Thing is that since odds are now higher there can be a set or sets of numbers that simply never get sold and that the ticket you're holding has the same losing numbers as others out there.  Such is the reality of upping the odds so this could possibly even get to $1,000,000,000 and yes that's a Billion dollars (or as I like to tell my friends) that's one thousand Million dollars OR 10,000,000 $100 dollar bills.

Bleudog101

Quote: Originally posted by MaximumMillions on Jan 6, 2016

By the way I dreamt a (chubby) Hawai'ian won it. Just wanted tp put that out there. LOL

Chubby Hawai'ian would have to fly to the states to get his ticket since HI is too dependent on tourism to ever consider a lottery there.  If they ever did, it would be strange to have an afternoon cut-off time for purchases due to the time difference.

MaximumMillions

Quote: Originally posted by Bleudog101 on Jan 6, 2016

Chubby Hawai'ian would have to fly to the states to get his ticket since HI is too dependent on tourism to ever consider a lottery there.  If they ever did, it would be strange to have an afternoon cut-off time for purchases due to the time difference.

I know, but him being Hawaiian doesn't mean he couldn't have bought it on a trip from Hawaii to Cali. Or maybe he "immigrated" to the continental US.

Teddi's avatarTeddi

Quote: Originally posted by MaximumMillions on Jan 6, 2016

All of the above is why people win.

I'm sorry Teddi, you need to make some changes if you want to win the big bucks!

Oh darn.

Okay, what if i bought 400 pairs of pants but they were different styles and colors. Would that work?

MaximumMillions

Quote: Originally posted by Teddi on Jan 6, 2016

Oh darn.

Okay, what if i bought 400 pairs of pants but they were different styles and colors. Would that work?

Only if you don't wear them but keep them on display under glass domes maybe.

Redd55

Eh. Someone already won it a few weeks after the matrix was changed. So, not impossible.

AbsolutelyFun

Quote: Originally posted by Redd55 on Jan 6, 2016

Eh. Someone already won it a few weeks after the matrix was changed. So, not impossible.

Actually after October 4th 2015 (the day they changed PB to the higher odds currently in force), there were 9 drawings before someone hit it. That equates to 4 and a half weeks before it was hit so a bit more than a few weeks. Just being anal. My apologies if you're offended. Frankly speaking though, I was surprised that it hit so quickly what with the odds being so much higher.

MaximumMillions

Quote: Originally posted by AbsolutelyFun on Jan 6, 2016

Actually after October 4th 2015 (the day they changed PB to the higher odds currently in force), there were 9 drawings before someone hit it. That equates to 4 and a half weeks before it was hit so a bit more than a few weeks. Just being anal. My apologies if you're offended. Frankly speaking though, I was surprised that it hit so quickly what with the odds being so much higher.

I mean, of course it can be hit at any time provided at least one ticket is sold, but seeing how even the highest jackpots reached rolled after this level at "easier" odds I agree that this could possibly keep rolling for another 4 weeks like the JP right around the matrix change, as you mentioned.

AbsolutelyFun

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Jan 6, 2016

I could be wrong but I think this would be quite a stretch. They would need nearly $200 million sales more than their original projection....on a Wednesday.....

Now to start the next drawing? Sure, though I am thinking it would be closer to $600M.

Yeah if nobody hits it Wednesday night then yeah it will start at $600M for the Saturday drawing but ticket sales will shoot up substantially because everybody will be talking about how the PB has NEVER been that high before (previous being the $590.5M win) so a lot of people who would normally sit out or have given up as a result of the newer, higher odds will jump in just because everybody they know is jumping in also.  You know the talk of the town kind of thing or the "since everybody is doing it then it must be THE thing to do" with some people actually losing their minds....and money.

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