Back in the game

Comment #3

hypersoniq — Tue, 28 Mar 2023 11:52:42 GMT

I have since cast output to an integer, but it is still spitting out 4's, so that tells me that SARIMAX is not the right model. Today I will try to experiment with other models. It could be that the data is too chaotic and needs a completely different solution. I am just celebrating the fact that my first attempt to write a python program for data analysis worked!

Comment #2

hypersoniq — Tue, 28 Mar 2023 11:50:09 GMT

That depends on if it works... so far I am only getting it to spit out average (mean) as a forecast, I asked for 7 days of forecast and ALL of the numbers are 4.5, dead center between 0 and 9.

Comment #1

lakerben — Tue, 28 Mar 2023 04:08:10 GMT

Great! Are you going to post your p3 program?

Original Blog Entry: Back in the game

hypersoniq — Mon, 27 Mar 2023 15:25:08 GMT

Good to be back! Noticed I have been an LP member for 20 years.

After a number of years in the I give up gang, I realized that the work I was doing with lottery data was good practice with excel and I am starting up a new angle. In the interim I have learned to code in python, in fact just 8 classes to go (the long path, 1 at a time) to earn a Bachelor's degree in Computer Science.

Right now the current project is to generate predictions using Python code I wrote for time series analysis. I can import a spreadsheet (as a csv file) into a pandas dataframe and attempt fitting each ball in the PA pick 3 using SARIMA, then generating predictions for 7 days.

It is still a work in progress, but getting closer each day. The S in sarima means it looks for seasonal trends (something I though about but never implemented in excel).

Still treating the pick 3 as 3 separate draws of 1 in 10, and still not playing box, as a box means the code was wrong.

So many toys (algorithms) in the python stats and data mining tool box! After SARIMA, I will rework the code to use Markov chains.

Does not even matter if it works, the point is I am actively working with writing code.... [ More ]