Original Blog Entry: What I look for in a pick 3 back test

hypersoniq — Wed, 23 Aug 2023 15:16:27 GMT

It is all about gaps. The gaps between wins.

What you can tell right away...

A maximum gap (longest stretch between wins) of 501 days or more indicates a system that is not profitable.

The average gap has no value.

The minimum gap is the number of days you can confidently STOP playing. If you don't play every draw, your expense in chasing the next win is reduced! If there is an anomaly like a back to back win, it can most likely be discounted as an outlier. By looking at the gap data, there is a statistics formula to determine outliers.

So the use is...

Max gap determines profitability... is the system worth pursuing?

The min gap determines when to NOT play to save on the play budget.

I am still on the part of my system where I can get picks, but have not finished the back test yet. I may play on occasion to try and get a win, but I won't have this info immediately.

There are no guarantees, but this idea helps reduce the play expense, thereby maximizing profitability.... [ More ]