Original Blog Entry: What would success look like?

hypersoniq — Tue, 06 Feb 2024 17:28:06 GMT

Systems and strategies come and go, I have worked on several over the years.

With any system, what does success look like?

On a new add to my system, the simple pick 2 is a 1 in 100 chance of being right. Once could be merely coincidence. How many hits would be needed in what time frame to consider the system a success?

It is different for jackpot games as that only needs to work once.

This is where I fall back to profitability.

I am currently playing all PA daily games both mid and eve draws, roughly 4 days a week. Since I can use that to calculate total possible loss, I can also use that to calculate success scenarios.

Breaking it down to individual games, the success scenario would be as follows...

Pick 2

To cover it's own cost would need 11 wins this calendar year.

To carry the whole system it would need 77

Pick 3

To cover it's own cost would need 2 wins this calendar year.

To carry the whole system would require 8

The pick 4 would require but 1 to carry the whole system, as would the pick 5.

The match 6 would require 4 [5 of 6] hits to carry the whole system, though that game also has the n of 18 3 line count, which could pay up to $2,500. A jackpot win on that would be life changing of course, but also cover the system.

The first week brought zero wins, so to date the system has not been effective, but it is only the beginning of February.

So I think I would define success to be any combination of wins across all games that cover the expense of playing to be good, and any combination that also generates a profit to be great.

Seems overly simplistic, considering the odds of all games are as posted for 1 pick per game.

Pick 2 is 1:100

Pick 3 is 1:1,000

Pick 4 is 1:10,000

Pick 5 is 1: 100,000

Match 6 jackpot is 1:4,661,272 (according to the PA lottery website) but is actually 1:13,983,816. They doctor the odds due to giving 2 quick pick lines for the one you play. Making those odds a more realistic 3:13,983,816

Each of the above odds are present in each game no matter how many times I play the system.

So, got a way to pick, got a betting strategy and budget, got an idea of how it might be measured as successful, all that is left to do is win...

Now if only PA would stop picking the wrong numbers!... [ More ]