Original Blog Entry: What a different story the data tells now...

hypersoniq — Tue, 17 Sep 2024 17:20:57 GMT

Using the distribution of angles, there is formed a bell curve that centers on 0, or the repeat. This is because 0 shares no negative split with a corresponding angle.

Adding the lines... the lines tell a wildly different story. The most popular following move is a difference of 1, or a line length of 1.41... corresponds to both 45 degrees AND -45 degrees.

The +/- 1 is the most popular line follower and it is not even close... in every position! The repeats, or length = 1, rank 4th at best.

So now, how can this be used?

One idea is to look at the ranked angular data and pick the smallest non zero move that appears highest in the list... such as if a -45 is ranked higher than the 45, then simply subtract 1 from the last draw... if a 9 or a zero appear as the last drawn number then -45 on a 0 and 45 on a 9 violate the grid constraints, so the choice is easier.

While no system will work every time, if this could help steer closer to a correct pick, then by all means it will be utilized.

I took a snapshot of the follower script output, decided NOT to play today anyway, so a paper pick analysis of the concept can be tested after the draws.

All sheets were modified, but still have to update the pick 5 sheets to current, as they sat stale for quite some time awaiting a pick3 hit to get started.

It may be just more meaningless information creating noise, but it does tell a way different story than just studying the angular data. For instance, the length of ~9 can only happen when a 0 follows a 9 or a 9 follows a 0. It cannot happen any other way.

Now to determine exactly how important this new information is and figuring out how to apply it consistently to picks.

To confirm...

Raw follower data distribution = a near uniform distribution

Angular follower data distribution = a bell curve centered on 0 degrees

Line length follower data distribution = a more logarithmic or even near exponential distribution, centered on +/- 1

So if we know that the +1 or -1 fits the line data, we might use the placement of the 45/-45 in the angle data to help decide if that 1 is added or subtracted...... [ More ]