Original Blog Entry: Talking shop with Google's Gemini...

hypersoniq — Tue, 19 Aug 2025 14:14:49 GMT

Going over some statistical conversations with Google's Gemini the past few days. I like certain aspects better than Chat GPT, such as it references it's sources for further exploration.

What resulted is I am planning to add some new data to the output of the classifier script...

1. A row count of how many draws since each number last appeared. This will be used to break ties.

2. Including a chi-square goodness of fit test for the 150 draw window. The P value can be used by phase 2.

Speaking of Phase 2, I will be implementing that as a Markov Decision Process. Similar to a reinforcement learning AI, it will calculate the best pick and be rewarded if it shows in the 7 draw window.

A long discussion on data features and statistical methods has shown that I had a good setup, just lacking in features.

This may take a long time to figure out, because I have never coded a Markov Decision Process before. I think that it will require running the full sliding test again so the MDP can learn what to look for.

I did start the conversation off by asking it to refrain from coding examples and stick to statistics and theory, it did that much better than Chat GPT. It did not push Microsoft solutions like copilot, and it did not hallucinate like Claude or GPT.

Using these AI agents is helpful to both confirm your ideas, and to get a healthy dose of reality check when your ideas are not good. It is like having someone to discuss ideas that is also fluent in theory and has access to the entire internet of information. (Even behind research paper pay walls!)

When I went into this hobby 20+ years ago the goal was to find slight bias in the systems. Now I have a better idea of what to look for... I may be getting closer to finally asking the right questions that have eluded me for decades.

As a result, I must get to work on how I will implement these things in my existing code base. I will continue to use the all neutral QP generator for the last 2 weeks of the house money on pick 3, but then the test will be suspended until this new phase 2 is ready for live testing. Not that I wouldn't continue with the QP generator IF more house money becomes available, but that is not looking too promising at this point.... [ More ]