Comment #1

lottoburg — Sun, 02 Oct 2011 18:20:02 GMT

I have tried it for my lotto game to take some back tests. I can get 1-2 numbers for next draw in general but the prediction of 3 numbers is very few and the prediction of 4-6 numbers is never met. Why? Is it something wrong for my using of LOWESS? Thanks. Best regards, lottoburg

Original Blog Entry: Using LOWESS

Developer — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 22:40:36 GMT

A very popular question I get asked is how can I use LOWESS to help predict my numbers? .

Firstly you must understand that LSA uses a layered architecture, it does not see a draw as a group of numbers but instead sees the draw as a set of individual numbers. LSA analysis's draws in this way, this means if you have a pick 6 lotto you have to create 6 LOWESS graphs to get one prediction, one for each ball.

Keeping that in mind let me move on to using LOWESS.

The more past draw results used in LOWESS the more averaged the plots become, hence the more average the prediction become..

8 to 15 draws should provide plenty of variation in the predictions from one draw to the next.

Smoothness

When using LOWESS you should be changing this all the time finding the best fit plot line for the number of past draws your using.

When setting smoothness, watch the trend line, you don't want it touching each ball as in the image below

but then you don't want the line too straight either.

The best curve is a best fit curve as in the image below

Not too sharp and not too smooth.

As you alter settings look to the text pain to see what the predictions are doing.

The values in here should be treated as follows

Min: LSA predicted the next ball wont fall below the min value

Max: LSA predicted the next ball wont fall above the max value

That means LSA predicts the ball will be in between that range

It gives two predictions for this

Avg and Med - Choose the one you feel most happy with or choose a value in between them.

Always track the predictions and after a few weeks you will see what the variations are from prediction to draw and adjust accordingly

If used correctly this is a very powerful tool with a higher than average hit rate.

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