Original Blog Entry: Pick 3 simulation

aquariuslottery — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 06:48:48 GMT

The purpose of this simulation is to test Aquarius Pick 3 lottery system in a real-life like situation. It is a simulation because no real money is played or won.

The purpose of the simulation is to establish procedures that facilitate consistent winning in Pick 3 lottery, identify system's strengths and weaknesses, and introduce improvements, if possible, in its peformance.

I'm unable to test the system in real life because there is no Pick 3 lottery in British Columbia. Other Pick 3 lotteries are strictly territorial which means non-resident do not qualify fow winning.

For the simulation I picked Kansas Pick 3 lottery, for 2 reasons. First, it has only 1 draw a day which suits me better as I do not have time capacity to process and analyse stats and predictions more often than once a day. Second, it has standard set of rules and wins which facilitates setting up a playing strategy. But the system may be applied to any Pick 3 lottery, regardless of draw frequency.

As in any Pick 3 lottery the goal of playing is to actually make money. Not just wining, because it is easy to win if you discard the cost factor. However, making money on a consistent basis is a different ball game in which the cost of playing must strictly be monitored.

Conducted backtracks of the system indicated that this is possible. However, being fully automated, the backtracks lack one important element - the human decision regarding when, what and how much to play. This simulation is intended to test this element.

The daily analysis of predictions and results of the simulation includes:

- draw stats for the latest 15 draws: ratio of singles to doubles;

- odds evaluation: what to play (singles, doubles, both) and brief reason(s) for the choice;

- target win: box single or double, or both;

- prediction method used: there are 6 available;

- numbers selected for playing - 8 out of 10 (wheeled)

- cost of tickets played;

- actual numbers drawn;

- the result: win or loss;

- the winning combination in case of win;

- the amount of win;

- profit/loss calculation for the draw;

- total amount of profit or loss for the whole month;

The startup capital was set at $300, to initiate playing.

The system used in the simulation is based on the 7 principles for being succesfull in Pick 3 lottery posted on my blog in LP. It's a computer software for Windows.

----------------------------------------- Jun 1/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 1/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 014

Result: won

Winning combination: 014

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$24

----------------------------------------- Jun 2/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 2/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, expect singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 492

Result: won

Winning combination: 249

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$48

----------------------------------------- Jun 3/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 3/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 512

Result: won

Winning combination: 125

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$96

----------------------------------------- Jun 4/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 4/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 140

Result: won

Winning combination: 014

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$144

----------------------------------------- Jun 5/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 5/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: singles doubles close to avg, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 456

Result: won (singles)

Winning combination: 456

Amount of win: $40

Profit/loss calculation: -$16

Total profit/loss: +$128

----------------------------------------- Jun 6/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 6/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: singles doubles close to avg, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 818

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$72

----------------------------------------- Jun 7 /12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 7/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 76%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: try for doubles streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 100

Result: won

Winning combination: 001

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$104

Total profit/loss: +$176

----------------------------------------- Jun 8/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 8/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, try both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 146

Result: won (singles)

Winning combination: 146

Amount of win: $40

Profit/loss calculation: -$16

Total profit/loss: +$160

----------------------------------------- Jun 9/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 9/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 968

Result: won

Winning combination: 689

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$184

----------------------------------------- Jun 10/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 10/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 853

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$128

----------------------------------------- Jun 11/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 11/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 60%, doubles 40%

Odds evaluation: singles underplayed, continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 075

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$72

----------------------------------------- Jun 12/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 12/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box singles

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 801

Result: won

Winning combination: 018

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$96

----------------------------------------- Jun 13/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 13/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: singles streak overextended, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - repetitive

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.50 + 56 x $0.50 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 995

Result: won (doubles)

Winning combination: 995

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$120

----------------------------------------- Jun 14/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 14/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: continue double streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 663

Result: won

Winning combination: 663

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$104

Total profit/loss: +$224

----------------------------------------- Jun 15/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 15/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 67%, doubles 33%

Odds evaluation: continue double streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 963

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$168

----------------------------------------- Jun 16/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 16/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 269

Result: won

Winning combination: 269

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$192

----------------------------------------- Jun 17/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 17/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 306

Result: won

Winning combination: 036

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$240

----------------------------------------- Jun 18/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 709

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$184

----------------------------------------- Jun 19/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 19/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 652

Result: won

Winning combination: 256

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$208

----------------------------------------- Jun 20/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 20/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 064

Result: won

Winning combination: 046

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$256

----------------------------------------- Jun 21/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 21/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 74%, doubles 26%

Odds evaluation: singles streak overextended, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 109

Result: won (box single)

Winning combination: 019

Amount of win: $40

Profit/loss calculation: -$16

Total profit/loss: +$240

----------------------------------------- Jun 22/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 22/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: doubles underplayed

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 500

Result: won

Winning combination: 005

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$104

Total profit/loss: +$344

----------------------------------------- Jun 23/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 23/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue doubles streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 701

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$288

----------------------------------------- Jun 24/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 24/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: uncertan, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 346

Result: won (box single)

Winning combination: 346

Amount of win: $40

Profit/loss calculation: -$16

Total profit/loss: +$272

----------------------------------------- Jun 25/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 25/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 112 x $1 = $112

Actual numbers drawn: 453

Result: won

Winning combination: 345

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$48

Total profit/loss: +$320

----------------------------------------- Jun 26/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 26/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box single

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 946

Result: won

Winning combination: 469

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$344

----------------------------------------- Jun 27/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 27/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue singles streak

Target win: box singles

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - hot (30)

Numbers predicted: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 746

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$288

----------------------------------------- Jun 28/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 28/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: singles streak overextended, play both

Target win: box single, box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $0.5 + 56 x $0.5 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 388

Result: won

Winning combination: 388

Amount of win: $80

Profit/loss calculation: +$24

Total profit/loss: +$312

----------------------------------------- Jun 29/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 29/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 80%, doubles 20%

Odds evaluation: continue doubles streak

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 093

Result: lost

Winning combination: none

Amount of win: $0

Profit/loss calculation: -$56

Total profit/loss: +$256

----------------------------------------- Jun 30/12 -----------------------------------------

Analysis and predictions for Jun 30/12

Draw stats: last 15 - singles 87%, doubles 13%

Odds evaluation: doubles underplayed

Target win: box double

Prediction method used: 8 numbers - cold (30)

Numbers predicted: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

Cost of tickets: 56 x $1 = $56

Actual numbers drawn: 991

Result: won

Winning combination: 991

Amount of win: $160

Profit/loss calculation: +$104

Total profit/loss: +$360

Summary:

The simulation was conducted for one whole month, in this case - June 2012 (30 days). The month was selected without any prior asumptions regarding actual numbers drawn and proportions of singles to doubles.

The analysis of odds was conducted after every draw and then a decision was made what and how to play.

At the beginning of the simulation I assumed that the best deciding factor for what to play was the current ratio between singles and doubles. It was a major miscalculation and was quickly abandoned. As it turned out, it was far more successful to follow streak patterns for both singles and doubles as streaks are common for both (although there were none longer than 2 win streaks for doubles in the entire month).

Additionally, it turned out that there may be periods of instability during which neither singles nor doubles form any lasting streaks. Such periods make winning much more difficult. I played through such periods, usually with mixed results. Another option is to stay put during such times and wait for clearly defined streaks.

The simulation proved beyond question that it is imperative to monitor several prediction methods at the same time. The backtracks were conducted after each actual draw and each of the 6 prediction methods monitored for efficiency. This resulted in actually using 3 different methods at different periods of the month: hot, repetitive and even cold as their efficiencies varied.

It should be noted that it is possible to use box single wheels for playing straight single. All numbers in wheels are arranged in ascending order and if the winning singles are also drawn from the smallest to the largest this will result in straight win, not box (e.g. winning numbers 047 will give the straight win and not the box) . Some Pick 3 lotteries allow split for box and straight on the same slip so it is possible to play box and straight at the same time. During the simulation I did not explore this possibility although it appears to be an opportunity for increased winning.

I took a rather conservative approach to playing. Only on few occasions I played more than $56 to increase chances of winning more money. Bolder players may risk more and win more as well. I avoided unnecessary risk-taking.

The system won 22 times in 30 days (73%). This is consistent with backtracks that indicated similar ratios. Not all wins resulted in a profit: several wins actually resulted in loosing money (the cost exceeded the winning). However I tried to limit loses by avoiding excessive risks in times of uncertainty.

The simulation proves that money can be made in Pick 3 lottery. The success depends on strategies adopted for playing.

The simulation identified that following streaks for singles and doubles is the most successful strategy. Observing singles to doubles ratio may also be important at times, particularly during significant deviations from standard percentages (72% for singles and 27% for doubles). During instability periods (no clearly defined streaks) it is probably the best strategy to stay put and skip a couple of draws.

Below are the Kansas Pick 3 numbers for the month of June 2012 used in the simulation. They are quoted here to demonstrate the presence of single and double streaks that, in my belief, are the key to success in any Pick 3 lottery. Indentations should improve visibility of the streaks.

The actual ratio between singles and doubles for the entire month was 77% to 23%, compared with standard of 72% to 27%. However, if the last 3 draws are discounted, the ratio for doubles is only 18.5%, significantly lower than std. Doubles are the money-makers in any Pick 3 lottery. Their lower than average presence makes generating profits much harder. I've seen months (in other lotteries) where doubles were at 40%. Such months may be financially very rewarding.

06/30/2012 991 double

06/29/2012 093 single

06/28/2012 388 double

06/27/2012 746 single

06/26/2012 946 single

06/25/2012 453 single

06/24/2012 346 single

06/23/2012 701 single

06/22/2012 500 double

06/21/2012 109 single

06/20/2012 064 single

06/19/2012 652 single

06/18/2012 709 single

06/17/2012 306 single

06/16/2012 269 single

06/15/2012 963 single

06/14/2012 663 double

06/13/2012 995 double

06/12/2012 801 single

06/11/2012 075 single

06/10/2012 853 single

06/09/2012 968 single

06/08/2012 146 single

06/07/2012 100 double

06/06/2012 818 double

06/05/2012 456 single

06/04/2012 140 single

06/03/2012 512 single

06/02/2012 492 single

06/01/2012 014 single

Aquarius

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