Powerball multi-state lottery game to change rules

Comment #73

mymonthlypicks — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 02:03:44 GMT

Good Point!

Here is the 2008 Powerball Results _ 36 of 89 Drawing had a number draw 50 or above,

53 drawing had no numbers above 50

Jan - 3 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Feb - 2 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Mar - 1 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Apr - 4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

May - 1 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Jun - 5 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Jul - 7 of the 9 Drawing had

Comment #72

Stew12 — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 21:41:44 GMT

Well you could say any 4 numbers won't come out (on average) more than 6.7797% of the time. But by that logic, playing the first 51 would give you an advantage as well since the last 8 should only show 13.559% of the time

Comment #71

mymonthlypicks — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:06:12 GMT

Just play the first 55 numbers. the other 4 numbers won't be out very often maybe 6.9362% of the time.

Comment #70

LckyLary — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 03:51:50 GMT

I won Pick 5 a few years ago (Matrix 38 or 39 I think) playing 2 boards. I don't like matrix changes because not only increasing the odds again but wrecking my best algorithms and having to start a new draw history. After I won the 5 the matrix changed I never got above 3 numbers. By the time my prg. gets a grab on it they change it again! I would rather see more 20M winners than a few per year 200M winners. More people would play if there were more winners at least close to where they live some... [ More ]

Comment #69

tntea — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 02:13:06 GMT

I hope you win it...

Really, I do.

Comment #68

Captain Lotto — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:04:15 GMT

I think it still has to go through some approval process. The release says it has a target date of January.

Comment #67

LottoL — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 11:17:27 GMT

This is the fifth redesign for the best-known multi-state jackpot game since it was created in 1992. The last change was in August 2005. Changes to the current game are expected to be in place by January 2009.

Does anyone know what the exact date will be of the first drawing with the matrix change

Comment #66

RJOh — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:35:25 GMT

Discussions about how to express odds, how to best claim a jackpot once it's won and who should share it will alway be around as long as posters have nothing to add to an intelligent discussion about how to win a jackpot. Such discussions don't enlighten anyone about winning a lottery which is why most people read these threads.

Comment #65

Guru101 — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:43:13 GMT

You should assume that when discussing combinations, that the person is talking about unique combinations unless they specifically say they aren't. I don't know why people come into a thread saying But it has to be UNIQUE! . Yes, we already know that.

Comment #64

Stew12 — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:32:40 GMT

If you were to buy all 195 million UNIQUE combinations, you would not say that you have 195 million tickets each with 1 in 195 million odds of winning (which would be true however). You would say you have 195,000,000 / 195,000,000 (or 1 in 1) chances of winning.

The same holds true if you have 97.5 million UNIQUE tickets. You have half of the possible combinations, so you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning.

Comment #63

Guru101 — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 16:48:52 GMT

Look. If I buy 2 Powerball tickets, MY odds are going to be 1 in 97.5 million. I own both tickets. I'm not making millions of combinations disappear either. There is still 195 million possible outcomes, 2 of which I have. I'm just simplifying a fraction.

Comment #62

Captain Lotto — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 16:25:53 GMT

In the world of statistics, 2:4 does not equal 1:2. Chuck hit on the answer - because each combination has the exact chances of being the winning selection. You can't simplify the odds because the 197 million represents the potential combinations. No matter how many tickets you buy (or combinations you hold) there is still a chance for 197 million outcomes. Buying four tickets does not reduce the possible outcomes to 49 million.

I know it seems logical to simplify the equation, but that is n... [ More ]

Comment #61

Think — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 01:32:28 GMT

chuck32 writes Before the drawing, every set of numbers has absolutely the same chance of winning.

Yes you are correct but in one case you can simplify the odds before the drawing and in the other case you cant

Comment #60

RJOh — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 18:25:39 GMT

When playing games like PowerBall, you're playing two lotteries, one of 5/55 and another of 1/42. The odds of winning the jackpot are the odds of winning both. If you pick the same PB for each of your combinations of five then your odds of matching the PB remains the same, however if you match it you're match it more than once.

Comment #59

chuck32 — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 17:50:32 GMT

Mr. Think,

But you have stepped into that realm of partial draws. Before the drawing, every set of numbers has absolutely the same chance of winning. It makes no difference if you some sets of numbers with the same red ball. Every set of numbers has an equal chance on winning the jackpot - I think you will agree with that. You claim not be into the realm of partial draws, but then you begin to break down the time of the drawing into some kind of time when the five numbers have been draw - or

Comment #58

hypersoniq — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 15:29:16 GMT

that sucks... looks like i will be back to 1 qp for all of 2009 until there are 100+ draws of history.

thanks MUSL for once again screwing with the historians

either that or I now have a goal of winning by december...

Comment #57

Think — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 14:57:53 GMT

Chuck32

Powerball and games of that ilk are different beasts. There is no fictional realm of partial drawings needed to explain it.

You know going into the game that you need the powerball to win the jackpot.

Here-

Say I buy 39 tickets all covering each powerball. Then my odds are 5 million to 1 (5/59) to win the jackpot because I know I have the powerball *BEFORE* the drawing.

Ok now instead of buying tickets that way I buy 39 easy picks and I look at them and I see that som... [ More ]

Comment #56

chuck32 — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:44:05 GMT

No. You are incorrect. But I see where your view has gone awry. You are moving into a realm of a partial drawing when playing the game. Such a thing does not exist. Before the drawing, any number can come up. The chance of any number coming up, including a set of numbers with or without the same red ball number is the same. 2 in 195 million is always exactly the same as 1 in 97.5.

Comment #55

Think — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:39:21 GMT

Ok, after this I am going to logoff. Consider this- If I buy two tickets and they both have the same powerball and that powerball does not come up then I cant win the jackpot. If i buy two tickets with different powerballs then my odds change. If I buy two tickets with the same powerball and that powerball comes up then my odds are not 1 in 97.5 Million...it does all depend on where the jackpot rains

The odds from the lotterys point of view are different than from the players viewpoint.

S... [ More ]

Comment #54

chuck32 — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:30:58 GMT

Well, if you buy 2, it is a small number (the number 1) in 97.5. If you buy 4, it is a small number (the number 1 ) in 48.75.

It is NOT a lot easier to miss with 2:195 million than with a genuine 1:97.5 million. It is EXACTLY the same. EXACTLY. People can have their own opinions about subjective things, but not math.

Comment #53

Think — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:30:33 GMT

If you pick numbers that are close to each other then you may have better or worse chances actually...it all depends on where it rains the jackpot .

Comment #52

Think — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:27:09 GMT

The jackpot only rains on one place and is alot easier to miss with 2 in 195 million odds then it is with genuine 1 in 97.5 million odds. Keep in mind we are talking about buying a small number of tickets. I agree that if you buy a very large number of tickets then your odds do approach that but with a small number of tickets it is small-number in 195million

Comment #51

chuck32 — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:11:15 GMT

Another way to look at it is to follow it down. 2:195m = 1:97.5M;

97.7M:195M=1:2;

195M:195M=1:1

If you buy 97.5 million tickets, your chances of winning are exactly 1 out of 2. If you buy 195 million tickets your chances of winning are 1 in 1.

Math is not subject to a different view .

Comment #50

chuck32 — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:07:55 GMT

I have no idea where you are coming from. Math is math. 2+2=4. 2:4 is exactly the same as 1:2.

Comment #49

chuck32 — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:06:40 GMT

Well, at better than 6/42 odds, you kick in the extra buck for $1 million CASH (don't be fooled by $1 million annuity).

Comment #48

Think — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 03:05:30 GMT

Chuck32, yes overall from the point of view of the lottery it does work that way but from the point of view of the player it does not! For the player it IS 2 in 195 million. For any small number of tickets it is Small_Number in 195Million from the point of view of the player.

From the players viewpoint 2 in 195Million is NOT the same as 1 in 97.5Million

Comment #47

Think — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 02:58:04 GMT

I understand what you are saying about the smaller prizes but if I want $50 or $100 I will just stop buying tickets. On the same point, if I ever beat Fantasy 5 odds I want more than $10K for it and if I ever beat 6/40 odds I want more than $250k for it and I am willing to kick in the extra buck for bigger prizes at those levels.

I am also willing to pay $2 for a base ticket because I understand the concept of inflation.

Comment #46

chuck32 — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 02:51:49 GMT

Ha! It certainly does work that way. 2:195 million is exactly the same thing as 1:97.5 million. Just as buying 195 million tickets is 195M:195M for a 1:1 chance - a guaranteed win.

Comment #45

Think — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 02:48:50 GMT

Nope, doesn't work that way. That would be 2 in 195 Million.

Comment #44

chuck32 — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 02:35:25 GMT

Your wish is granted for MM.

But Powerball is already a $2 game, if you want that. It is just optional. Once, in a candle store, I saw a sign on a giant candle that said $1 a pull . I talked to the manager and he said that he wanted to stop people from trying to lift the candel by the wick. He had posted a Don't Lift Candle sign but found that you can't tell Americans NO . So, he put up a sign charging $1 to lift the candle by the wick. Americans demand a choice. You can still play Powerball... [ More ]

Comment #43

KY Floyd — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 02:31:17 GMT

You're in luck. I talked to the managers at Powerball, and they've made special arrangements for you. When you buy your tickets, pay $2 and they'll let you pick 2 sets of numbers, so your odds will be only 1 in 97.5 million.

Comment #42

Think — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 02:22:00 GMT

I am holding out for better odds and a $2 ticket price on powerball.

I hope MegaMillions skips the matrix change and just goes to the $2 ticket price and maybe Megaplier, smallaplier(higher prizes at $2 thru $150 level), and bigaplier (higher 2nd 250k level prize and higher 3rd 10k level Prize). I'd get the ticket with bigaplier.

Comment #41

ThatScaryChick — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:34:22 GMT

I think if MM sees that Powerball is getting higher jackpots like 300 million plus, they will have a matrix change as well.

Comment #40

chuck32 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 02:25:50 GMT

From your keyboard to the odds gods . . . .

Comment #39

Guru101 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 02:24:21 GMT

I think it will get quick tie at $390M when the matrix changes. A few months later, $415M.

Comment #38

chuck32 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 02:22:54 GMT

But remember that Powerball limits its jackpot growth at the record levels - dumping the money into a Match 5 BONUS pool. That will slow the growth to the world record; spreading the wealth instead.

Comment #37

Guru101 — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 02:14:44 GMT

I think Powerball will reclaim the jackpot record. There's 49 million more combinations, which is a 33% increase. That's huge. Hell, 1 in 1 million is a shot in the dark; much less 1 in 195 million. It's insane. Powerball will start seeing super big jackpots a lot more often now.

Comment #36

chuck32 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:28:58 GMT

Florida is the last U.S. Lottery state to go multi-state. There may be some new lotteries coming, but not anytime soon. Arkansas may be next - in 2010 or so. A few other states flirt with lotteries from time-to-time -- WY, NV, AK, HI have all had bills proposed, but failed.

Comment #35

DC81 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:14:11 GMT

I don't recall reading or hearing anything about it though they seem to be doing well enough as it is now. I doubt they'd change it in response to Powerball's changes unless MM adds another good size (at least similar to MM's current average state population) state though I don't think there are many, if any left, I'd have too look since I don't know all the states are that are already involved with either game. If Florida had joined Mega Millions they probably would have changed their odds to s... [ More ]

Comment #34

spy153 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:01:53 GMT

MM is making game changes too

Comment #33

chuck32 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:31:23 GMT

I'm not sure when MM makes its game change.

Comment #32

Prob988 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:11:11 GMT

This should save me money because I play based solely on expectation value, the jackpot divided by the odds.

I don't play when the expectation value is below a certain level, but as it rises, I play more and more.

I have a choice of whether to play Powerball and Mega since I live in a border area between states.

Because Powerball's odds were better, I tended to end up playing powerball more often. That's likely to change now.

Comment #31

chuck32 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 02:06:52 GMT

I'm not much of a mind reader. Jackpot vampires is a fun term. My experience is that people pretty quickly move to a state jackpot game of any size because it has better odds. If I'm in a state where I can play, I certainly drop my dollar on MM (for the fickle finger of fate) and on the state game too (with better odds). Probably not so much the fault of the multi-state games as the fault of players if they walk away from a good state game. FL has a great state game. It will see a 30% cut (commo... [ More ]

Comment #30

Think — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:57:08 GMT

I don't see where I was complaining. My point, which I did not make clear, is that these games are jackpot vampires (sucking all the decent sized in-state jackpots up and giving players a jackpot drought in their place).

Comment #29

chuck32 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:42:26 GMT

There are 12 MM states, all close to the same population. There are 31 PB jurisdictions of wildly different popualtion sizes. What you see is exactly what you should statistically be expected. You can't complain about an orderly universe. Both games should get about 12-15 jackpot hits per year.

Comment #28

Think — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:29:04 GMT

Oh and BTW if you check out the new MegaMillions page you will see that some states average about one MM JP per year. I bet with PB some states don't get a JP for years and It will be even longer with the new odds.

Comment #27

Think — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:26:39 GMT

I am not going to go out of my way to play Powerball unless they have a 10x powerplay promotion at the same time they are rolling the jackpot down to the second prize level.....then maybe I'll bother.

I can only describe the new odds a depressing.

However, at $500,000,000 I'll probably buy a ticket but not below that

Comment #26

Think — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:22:16 GMT

Well, I hope Floridians are happy that they ruined their in-state game for this!

I bet they will be even happier when they realize that getting a powerball jackpot win will probably come once a year to Florida.

Comment #25

chuck32 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 23:02:32 GMT

All as before. Four white; four red; two sets of draw machines (four machines). The same pre- and post-test draws. Likely new machines along with the ball sets. Just look for the little red ball.

Comment #24

Guru101 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:53:06 GMT

It doesn't really matter to me. It just means bigger jackpots and the jackpot will grow faster. Powerball is a game of fate even with its current odds.

Comment #23

Todd — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:32:31 GMT

How many ball sets will there be in total, and how will they be selected? Will there be pre- and/or post-draws, and if so, is there any chance that those results would be posted or available in some way

Comment #22

chuck32 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 21:55:02 GMT

New ball sets.

Comment #21

BobP — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 20:40:29 GMT

Now would be the time to start writing and asking whether they intend to add 4 new balls to the 55 old balls or add 59 new balls. This would determine whether we keep working old records making allowances for the change or start fresh record keeping as we would for a new game.

Anyone who gets a solid answer please post it or supply it to Todd as news. Don't be surprised to get an ambiguous reply, like they don't understand the question, LOL.

BobP

Comment #20

ThatScaryChick — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:48:05 GMT

I agree. I am not impressed. Whoopie they took away three red balls. Is that suppose to make most players happy and make them not see that they added 4 white balls? It will make getting 5 out of 5 even more hard to get, and the other prizes as well. I have a hard enough time with 55 numbers.

Comment #19

Stew12 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:32:37 GMT

I'm just bummed I have to erase all of my drawing history in January.

Comment #18

x1kosmic — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:28:54 GMT

On a positive note, We'll get some Brand New Play-slips, wi th new ink, rather than those faded old playslips I've been seeing lately.

I wonder if they'l get all new Ball Sets ...or add brand new balls to the slightly used balls?

Also, I wonder if the Jan. 3rd drawing will be in Fla.?

I guess after the Dec. 31st drawing, I'll be ripping down some wall charts, and getting a new start.

I hope the stores get the right stuff to be in time for the first draw.

Comment #17

spy153 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:55:59 GMT

I get why they can technically say they are only adding one more ball to the drum, but they are adding 4 more balls to the drum for the white balls. I don't care that they reduce the red balls. Like guesser said, those balls hardly ever come out anyway. It's the four other balls in the white ball drum I am hating. That vented, I am excited to hear about the change with the 5x for the second tier prize. Makes buying the powerplay option a little more tempting to me. Okay, very tempting. I also li... [ More ]

Comment #16

konane — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 10:57:12 GMT

Sounds to me like a mining truck or road-pan overflowing with it.

Lotteries becoming more like banks and government ..... take everything ..... toss out a crumb or two.

Comment #15

DC81 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 08:21:50 GMT

Ouch, I knew they were going to mess with the matrices with the addition of Florida, but I didn't think they'd go that nuts with making the odds of winning the jackpot that much worse. That's over a 33% increase which is no way reflective of how many additional players they'll be getting in Florida.

It's kind of messed up that Mega Millions will have better odds when these changes go into effect (if MM doesn't change theirs) and still will have a much larger total population to work with e... [ More ]

Comment #14

justxploring — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 08:21:25 GMT

Yes, but by doing this, they will probably market it as getting 2 games in one. You are now paying $1 for a shot at the PB jackpot and another $1 for a shot at $1 million. Otherwise, you will only get $200,000 if you get 5 numbers. However, if the odds of getting the 5 numbers are 1 in 5.1M then they're not very good IMO but it's a way to generate more money.

Any other comments on this? I might be wrong, but the way I read it, $1 buys one PB ticket and a chance to win the lower prizes, but n... [ More ]

Comment #13

savagegoose — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:54:44 GMT

it says guranteed power play of 5x, does that mean you have to pay the $2 a game to get the guarnteed 5x? seems an awful lot of

$1 extra fees to fund this generous bonus? but what everyone already plays the power play

Comment #12

time*treat — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:31:48 GMT

But folks, you see: MOST folks that play the game do NOT know the true odds, so those types will continue to play it as they always have.

True. In fact, the more 'clever' players get fed up and quit the game, the better profits for the game.

The more people got good at 'card counting', the more decks were added.

Comment #11

RJOh — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:21:21 GMT

MATCH ODDS

5/5+B 1 : 195249054

5/5 1 : 5138133

4/5+B 1 : 723145

4/5 1 : 19030

3/5+B 1 : 13644

3/5 1 : 359

2/5+B 1 : 787

1/5+B 1 : 123

0/5+B 1 : 62

___________________________

overall odds are 1 : 35.1

Comment #10

JimmySand9 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 05:52:57 GMT

Did some calculations, and I've estimated that the lower tier payouts (save for the $1,000,000 match 5 w/PP) will remain the same, as well as the odds for each of the Powerplay numbers.

As for the jackpot odds, I think 1 in 200,000,000 is a bit too much, though I suppose it was inevitable, with or without Florida.

Comment #9

guesser — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 05:35:10 GMT

+1

Looks like the number of games I play per drawing will be about half of what they currently are.

But folks, you see: MOST folks that play the game do NOT know the true odds, so those types will continue to play it as they always have.

I will say I am going from $10 per drawing to $5, MAYBE to $3.

They are taking away 3 red balls - BIG DEAL - those number rarely hit now as it is. (just watch - NOW they will catch on fire

Comment #8

justxploring — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 05:32:14 GMT

I agree it's insane, but it was at 1 in 147M. I mean, how many times has anyone here won a pick-5 game with odds of 1 in 377k?

Can someone please tell me what the odds of getting the 5 balls will be? Should be around 1 in 5.1M, right? If that's the case, the MM game in FL has a lot better odds. It's a 4 of 44 and 1 of 22 (MB) game.

Think PB is shooting itself in the foot. When people can't even come close to winning the FL Lotto with odds of only 1 in 23M, I don't see how they can expect... [ More ]

Comment #7

ThatScaryChick — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:59:45 GMT

Well, I am done with Powerball. Going up to 59 white balls??? Insane. I guess my focus will be on Hot Lotto now.

Comment #6

chuck32 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:47:57 GMT

You don't get that, with FL, the jackpot would be won more often; that with more players, the jackpot would be won more often? Really?

With more population comes the opportunity to make the game better. Bump the jackpot higher - yes with odds that are tougher, but these big games are really a question of fate before and before and before that. Nearly everyone plays for the big jackpot, but the new game will create more millionaires. A GUARANTEED 5X for the Match 5 Power Play. What do you want... [ More ]

Comment #5

chuck32 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:39:23 GMT

Arguably

Comment #4

Editgap — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:31:41 GMT

They tell us what we want to hear.

They tend to screw us like this when a new state is joinning. Meanwhile they are making the game more impossible.

I don't buy that crap that if Florida joins, the jackpot would be won more often.

It is the same crap, there would be more losers - which by the way is what we do more often.

Comment #3

time*treat — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:02:17 GMT

If the number matrix is not changed, the jackpot would be hit too often (but)

we still want to create lots of millionaires.

Comment #2

Coin Toss — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 03:40:25 GMT

This:

The number of white balls will increase from 55 to 59 while the numberof red balls will decrease from 42 to 39. The odds of winning thejackpot will be increased to one in 195.2 million while the overallodds of winning any prize will be dropped to one in 35.1.

is insanity.

We have a friend who just couldn't wait for California to join Mega Millions. He bought all the news hype about potential $500,000,000 jackpots. So California joined in, the matrix expanded, and now the same... [ More ]

Comment #1

DoctorEw220 — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 03:01:07 GMT

This is going to make the game very interesting, but at the same time, less profitable for the lotteries, especially since a match 5 winner with Power Play will automatically win $1 million. I might actually take Power Play once this starts.

Powerball multi-state lottery game to change rules

Lottery Post — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 01:57:08 GMT

Changes to coincide with addition of Florida in January; Jackpots to start at $20 million

Powerball, arguably the world's best known jackpot lottery game, will be making changes to the game with the addition of Florida in January.

The multi-state game will add some white ball numbers and will remove some red ball numbers, to accomodate the increase in number of players once Florida joins the game. If the number matrix is not changed, the jackpot would be hit too often, and it would not re... [ More ]