$970 MILLION: Mega Millions ticket-buying frenzy forces new jackpot estimate

Comment #109

Stack47 — Tue, 23 Oct 2018 20:52:29 GMT

I was agreeing with you because it's 34 cent for every dollar or 68 cents for every $2. I believe the reset/start-up cash value comes from a reserve fund.

Comment #108

KY Floyd — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 16:14:15 GMT

The prize structure is fixed until they make changes to the game. The $40 million starting jackpot comes from the probability that nobody will win until it rolls a few times and they've collected enough from players to fully fund the jackpot.

On the rare occasions that somebody wins at 40, 50, or 60 million they absorb a bit of a loss, but they make up for it when they get a big jackpot and sales go up. The last 4 drawings have totaled about $960 million in sales, earning them about $480 mill... [ More ]

Comment #107

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 09:37:36 GMT

Stack

The article I read led me to believe that the .34001 was a fixed rate. I don't know anything

about how lotteries are ran at the nuts and bolts level.

What I would like to know is where the $40 million reset / start-up comes from.

RL

Comment #106

Stack47 — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 01:46:36 GMT

After the amount of total revenues from ticket sales is known and multiplied by $.68, they get the real cash value. Jackpot estimates before that is an educated guess based on future ticket sales. It would be much easier if the advertised jackpot was simply twice as much as the cash value.

Comment #105

KY Floyd — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 00:42:36 GMT

That's a great theory, but when I've done it that way for PB it's always off by a bit. The TX lottery website posts a breakdown for PB, and the sales figures posted on lottoreport,com always match that, so I'm assuming their sales figures for MM are also pretty accurate. For tomorrow's PB drawing they show sales of $176.75 million. At 34% (it's 64.0131 cents of every ticket) that would add just over $60 million to the cash value, but the increase in the cash value is reported as $69.6 million. T... [ More ]

Comment #104

Artist77 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 22:43:41 GMT

Good to know. Thanks. One of these days I will buy in MD.

Comment #103

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 20:51:18 GMT

KY

I read on a MM website that .34001 of ticket sales are rolled over to the JP. $2.00*.34001 = $0.68

So for every 1 million increase in the cash value, ticket sales are 1,000,000 / .68 = 1,470,588

RL

Comment #102

noise-gate — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 17:53:43 GMT

l take it back, pulled into that gas station in Milpitas off Dixon landing road. It's the spot that sold the winning jp ticket to the guy who showed up in at the lottery office in a Jedi T shirt covered his head with the oversized check, yeah him. There was a line of probably 15 people waiting their turn, folks who are hoping for lightning to strike twice.Picked up 2 tickets here took off. Could hear the lady behind me say, that she was picking up tickets for the office pool.

Comment #101

Revolution777 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 17:17:20 GMT

Thanks KYFloyd! So, about a 37% chance it rolls to $1.6B or higher next TUE

Comment #100

KY Floyd — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 17:14:34 GMT

What are the estimated sales?

You can figure the estimated sales from the estimated jackpot. As a rough measure sales are equal to the increase in the advertised annuity. For a more precise estimate you can check past sales on lottoreport,com and compare that to the increase. The $119 million increase from 548 to 667 had sales of about 105 million tickets, so each $1 million of increase equates to about 882,000 tickets (ignoring minor differences in annuity/cash ratio). That means for a jack... [ More ]

Comment #99

Bleudog101 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 15:53:05 GMT

One billion now...close to the noon hour like the past three days of upping the jackpot

Comment #98

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 15:09:03 GMT

I did not add state taxes into the figures because each state is different and some don't have a state tax.

A ticket cost $2.00 and 34%, rounded equals $0.68. Each ticket purchased adds $0.68 to the jackpot.

548,000,000.00 / .68 = 805,882,353. I may have made a mistake by multiplying it by 2 for the total sales

as I already based it on a $2.00 play. Also some people play the extra buck which would bring the total ticket

to jackpot addition to $1.02 for those plays. .34*$3.00=$1.02.... [ More ]

Comment #97

Bleudog101 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 15:04:55 GMT

IDK and definitely not Todd.

The last three days it seems like they upped the ante during Todd's lunch hour.

Also noticed it was on a few states FB page long before the official website was updated.

Comment #96

Revolution777 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 14:35:54 GMT

What time is the Georgia press conference Todd? $1.2B

Comment #95

winoneday — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 14:31:39 GMT

You made a couple of huge mistakes in your calculations. I will give you a chance to find them.

Comment #94

wander73 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 14:23:38 GMT

I don't play quick picks at all. I simply look at one of the lottery pyramids I do and I know everyone else has a different way of their strategy. Depending on the numbers I stick with what is in there. The numbers could be there. Who knows.

Comment #93

wander73 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 14:22:20 GMT

hhmmmm. I wonder what that could mean.

Comment #92

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 13:40:33 GMT

P.S.

I have ran many test using PRNG's against different lottery game drawings. It's not not uncommon for

a PRNG to generate 5X the lines in a matrix before it hits the exact set. This is why I don't play QP's.

Each time you buy a QP you are using two random processes, first the one that generates the QP and

then the actual game drawing method.

Imagine two drunken cowboys staggering around shooting into the air. What's the odds that bullets fired

into the air would collide wit... [ More ]

Comment #91

lowellm — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 13:35:31 GMT

And yet I still haven't gotten around to buying my tickets yet, lol! That oughta bump it up over the top

Comment #90

CDanaT — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 13:30:04 GMT

Comment #89

CDanaT — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 13:29:25 GMT

RL... I believe that the new fed tax rate is at 37%...............After tonight,I will let you know

Comment #88

Todd — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 13:28:02 GMT

It looks to be near-certain that the jackpot will jump above $1 billion today. The Georgia Lottery will be holding a press conference late this morning at a Mega Millions billboard with a surprise that is guaranteed to thrill .

Comment #87

Bleudog101 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 13:08:54 GMT

Todd,

NJ 6 waiting for you Monday, 22 OCT 18 since no one had a winning ticket

Comment #86

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 13:07:28 GMT

Est. Jackpot = $970,000,000

Cash value = $548,000,000

Tax Rate 39.6% = $217,008,000

Winners get = $330,992,000

Odds =1 in / 302,575,350. For each ticket sold, 34% rolls over to increase the JP.

Each ticket cost $2.00 so $0.68 goes toward the JP for every ticket sold. So if the

cash value is $548,000,000 we can estimate total tickets sales are 805,882,353 at

$2.00 a pop for a grand cost of $1,611,644,706.00

We know that there are only 302,575,350 possible combination... [ More ]

Comment #85

TheMeatman2005 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 10:42:57 GMT

I had asked a question a while ago and everyone was confused by it. I wanted to know if a quick-pick ticket was supposed to be random, why did so many ticket get the same numbers.

Well, to answer your question, sort of..... Just because there are all these tickets being purchased, it doesn't mean that every possible combination of numbers is or will be sold.

Many of the tickets, even if they sell 302,757,350 tickets, although random, will contain the same numbers of other tickets sold and... [ More ]

Comment #84

Tucker Black — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 08:13:08 GMT

What are the estimated sales? I can't find it. Thanks.

Comment #83

lowellm — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 03:55:22 GMT

LOL! That is a question for KY Floyd

Comment #82

Revolution777 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 03:49:37 GMT

What percent of combinations will be covered for tomorrow's MM drawing? 60

Comment #81

noise-gate — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 01:47:11 GMT

The last time l saw a line out here, was for Infinity War.

Comment #80

LottoLucy — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 01:27:53 GMT

Unfortunately I am not familiar with any of the blue line stops in Maryland. I know if you changed trains and took the red line to Bethesda there is a convenience store pretty close to the station on Wisconsin. If you went to Silver Spring there are a ton of places within a block or two of the station including a 7-11 right across from the station on Georgia. There is also a little convenience store in the NOAA building pretty much right after you exit the station but that might only be open M-F... [ More ]

Comment #79

Kingofearth — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 01:08:17 GMT

Comment #78

Artist77 — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 00:51:19 GMT

I know but no way with my schedule. What metro stop in MD has a place very nearby to buy lottery tickets? It would have to be on the blue line ideally too. It would take 2 hours on a weekend.

Comment #77

CDanaT — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 00:46:20 GMT

Comment #76

lowellm — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 00:44:58 GMT

Yep! If (when) this jackpot estimate exceeds a billion, and then if nobody hits it... Oh man, then the frenzy will ensue! I'd say it would hit $2B before next Tuesday night! I simply cannot imagine that it won't be struck tomorrow night. Yet, stranger things have happened

Comment #75

Kingofearth — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 00:40:35 GMT

I don't know what it would start as, but if it rolls, it will definitely end higher than Jan16's jackpot.

Comment #74

LottoLucy — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 23:53:04 GMT

You just need to take the train into MD every couple of months and then there would be no question of anonymity at all! LOL, sad but that is what I miss about Maryland the most.

Comment #73

Suzy-Dittlenose — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 23:40:14 GMT

That's a good idea. I started using an Excel spreadsheet when Powerball hit that $1.586 billion in Jan 2016. I just type in the jackpot amount and the percentage used to calculate the cash value and all the cells/squares do the calculations all on their own. It gives me an idea on how much I would give out to my friends/family members. I've been using it for the past few draws.

Comment #72

Artist77 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 22:09:48 GMT

And this is why I buy my tickets on DC, lol

Comment #71

Artist77 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 22:06:11 GMT

Purchase state controls. Then you will receive a credit for your home state tax. If your home state tax rate higher, then you will owe the difference.

Comment #70

CDanaT — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 22:01:29 GMT

No Buy.... If you purchase a ticket while vacationing, say up in Maine, you will pay their state income tax up there before you collect.

Comment #69

BuyLow — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 21:20:27 GMT

I believe you are taxed based on where you live, not where you buy the ticket.

Comment #68

rcbbuckeye — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 21:18:02 GMT

They tried that a few years ago with the Monopoly Millionaires Club lottery.

It failed miserably. People just don't get worked up over a million dollars.

I've said this before, it bears repeating. My state lotto game has odds of 1 in 25,827,165. Second prize for MM and PB are less than half of that. Yeah, the lotto jackpot is more than 1 million, right now $8,270,000, but it's a bugger with those odds.

But wait, we want better odds to hit a million???

We have scratch tix that pay a m... [ More ]

Comment #67

Original Bey — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 21:16:42 GMT

Maybe one day the MUSL will offer 2nd tier prizes that allow lottery players to vie for million dollar prizes with better odds.

Comment #66

Tucker Black — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 21:16:18 GMT

That's the way to play it

Comment #65

wander73 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 21:08:42 GMT

I played 2 $2 tickets and won $60. I stopped.

Comment #64

Tucker Black — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:58:37 GMT

MM and PB are the two lotteries that I detest. No one should ever play them. Force them to go out of business and revert to a normal lottery where you have a far better chance of winning $1 million. Instead of just one winner in the entire country with $500 million, there could be five hundred millionaires! But that doesn't make the news, so we have this nonsense going on.

Another thing I detest about MM and PB is that they lie about the jackpot. It is not $900 million. It's about 55 to 60 pe... [ More ]

Comment #63

rcbbuckeye — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:55:59 GMT

Where I get my tix it doesn't matter what the jackpot is I'm usually in and out in a minute or two.

Comment #62

Tucker Black — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:49:41 GMT

Okay, I didn't know that it has happened before (though 10 million out of hundreds of millions is like a drop in the bucket).

Thanks for the info

Comment #61

LottoLucy — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:43:48 GMT

It depends on the state. If you mean can you form a trust and the lawyer represent you to the lottery without revealing your name you can in many states. In some states that wouldn t work. In Virginia, for example, a living person has to claim the prize and you couldn t claim it with your attorney fronting for you.

I agree with being to claim anonymously. In today s world it is just safer.

Comment #60

brees2012 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:34:12 GMT

@lottolucy .....

Thanks for that information ...........One other question , can a lawyer turn in the ticket, instead of the winner ?

In my opinion , I feel THE STATES THAT DOESN'T HAVE ANONYMOUS , They Should be anonymous too !!!

Thank you

Comment #59

brees2012 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:28:28 GMT

You know how long it took me to get my ticket ? ............20 seconds ...............

No lines at all ........Just me

Comment #58

LottoLucy — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:28:01 GMT

It is even better than that.

You have two exclusions you can use to make gifts from. One is the yearly gift exclusion and you can give as many individuals you want $15,000 and not have to pay gift tax.

The second one is called your lifetime exclusion. You can either use it to make gifts and avoid gift tax or your estate can use it to offset estate taxes. That amount is a whopping $11,180,000 total this year. So you could give up to that amount and not have to pay gift tax.

And if you re... [ More ]

Comment #57

rcbbuckeye — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:24:35 GMT

Makes me wonder why anyone that doesn't like lotteries or think they're shady would sign up on a website dedicated to lotteries and post stuff.

Comment #56

brees2012 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:21:22 GMT

Thank you for your information ...........Have a good day

Comment #55

brees2012 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:19:38 GMT

As of May 2018.............You can give money to family $15,000

I was just told this Today

Comment #54

Original Bey — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:19:34 GMT

If you are referring to major JP winners, I know TN does this. Winners would get a few million to scrape by until all the money comes in should you make a claim before that 2 week period. I suspect that other states do likewise.

Comment #53

brees2012 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:15:38 GMT

Does the lottery office give out loans , etcccc .....What is the procedure to receive your money ?

Somebody on here knows the procedure with the lottery .

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I am 100% ready to win the Mega Millions $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

When , I win , I'm going to give Mr Butler a visit ( aka winner 2012

Comment #52

LottoLucy — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:11:18 GMT

Since the first time I saw you post about the Curmudgeon your posts are now read by Ed Asner in my head.

Good luck

Comment #51

LottoLucy — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:07:11 GMT

The voice of reason! THANK YOU

Comment #50

Original Bey — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:03:52 GMT

Posters go from whining about playing against these odds not being worth it to developing conspiracy theories that defy logic. The MUSL has one trick up its proverbial sleeves. Wanna guess? Astronomical odds. Everything else evolves on its own. Predicting first time/occasional players behavior is a very hard thing to do. So the lottery adjusts as the rate of play changes drastically. It's this category of player that in large part drives up the JP to these levels and at this rapid pace.

Comment #49

LottoLucy — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:03:42 GMT

Wow! When we are in Las Vegas we usually head over to AZ for tickets but I know a lot of Las Vegans head to California because no state tax. At some point I wonder if the Nevada state legislature will ignore the casino lobbies and get in on the lottery action.

Comment #48

dpoly1 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:03:23 GMT

Let's go Mega Millions, this Curmudgeon needs his Jackpot!

Christmas in October Baby

Comment #47

Bleudog101 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:52:29 GMT

About an hour ago somebody @ Primm Lotto store said the line was 1.5 hours long to get lottery tickets--well that was a customer, not the store itself.

Comment #46

Todd — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:52:25 GMT

Well, that's not true. If you check past history, they have occasionally over-estimated the jackpot, which is something they desperately try not to do. When they over-estimate the jackpot they get accused of doing it in order to drive up sales.

So their approach is to be conservative in their estimates to avoid this. And you say it's because they want to drive up sales?? That's ludicrous.

Here's an example of a big over-estimation:

May 17, 2013: $600 MILLION: Biggest Powerball jackpot... [ More ]

Comment #45

Bleudog101 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:48:53 GMT

Excellent point and the way it keeps climbing it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

Feel for the clerks in places where you can't play on-line or no lottery machine. Maybe tonight the media will show the Primm lotto store with a huge line. FB here I come to look to see if there's live streaming

Comment #44

wander73 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:39:50 GMT

Someone is getting this fixed.

Comment #43

wander73 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:39:03 GMT

I agree with you. Misleading definitely.

Comment #42

wander73 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:37:57 GMT

No it won't. How do you get 4.6 bill

Comment #41

maximumfun — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:20:30 GMT

Let the hatching begin

Comment #40

hsg2000 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:14:53 GMT

Looks like it is a dangling Carrot !!!

Making the Hare chase it and we are mad folks

Comment #39

paymentplan-man — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:09:56 GMT

You know what I thought the same thing and even said this in another post yesterday when we first saw it increase to 900 Million (28hrs ago) but I was corrected through this wonderful explanation.

You don't seem to understand how jackpot estimates are made. They are projections, not based on actual sales. So when the sales for the new jackpot start they can quickly determine if sales volumes are following the expected levels, or if sales are higher or lower than expected. So (for example) wh... [ More ]

Comment #38

Tucker Black — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 18:59:51 GMT

They use a lowball estimate of sales between now and the next drawing. It's misleading because the jackpot is based on actual sales, but to their credit, it does say estimated jackpot . They have to lowball it because if sales are less than estimated, they would have to lower the jackpot amount between now and the drawing (has that ever happened?)

More importantly, and this is probably done intentionally, by lowballing the estimate and then revising the estimate upwards every single day, it g... [ More ]

Comment #37

Bodia77 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 18:27:30 GMT

South Dakota lets bring it home.

Comment #36

American Indian — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 18:23:12 GMT

Stop y'all are TOO FUNNY!

Thanks really needed good laugh today. My Heads hanging kinda Low

Comment #35

rcbbuckeye — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 18:18:34 GMT

What's weird is that you ALWAYS think something is weird.

Comment #34

wander73 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 18:12:05 GMT

Lmfao. I smell something weird.

Comment #33

CDanaT — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 18:11:05 GMT

Just food for thought.... What if it rolls? Where does the JP estimate start at

Comment #32

LottoLucy — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 18:06:43 GMT

That would be awesome

Comment #31

paymentplan-man — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 18:06:41 GMT

Hey I was just thinking about how mind blowing it would be if we saw in 24hrs that the jackpot was at like 1.3 Billion. That way during Friday evening and before the draw everyone and their mom will be out buying tickets.

Comment #30

Horsegeek40 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:58:57 GMT

True ppm true.

Comment #29

paymentplan-man — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:57:52 GMT

Should have finished it off with awesome a lot like Christmas

Comment #28

Horsegeek40 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:55:46 GMT

*looks at annuity payment amount* That is beginning to look awesome

Comment #27

paymentplan-man — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:54:29 GMT

Yeah Jeffrey that last sentence from him almost made me spit my OJ out. Don't tell Payment-plan-man ......... this guy where does he come up with it

Comment #26

CDanaT — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:53:44 GMT

I have a spot you can donate $10 Million to

Comment #25

Bleudog101 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:48:55 GMT

Please stop making me laugh with your last sentence!

I see an Ohio trip in my future if this monstrosity is not won Friday night..an anonymous state.

Comment #24

Horsegeek40 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:48:29 GMT

Oh my. My where can I split my winnings into list is growing.

Comment #23

American Indian — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:44:00 GMT

They all ran out to buy more Lottery Tickets!

Note all the high numbers on both this last Draw!

P.S Don't tell paymentplan-man

Comment #22

Todd — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:43:43 GMT

LOL, I have it on my to-do list to create some kind of like or thanks button on posts. Your post reminded me I needed to do that when I wanted to click like .

Comment #21

wander73 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:41:53 GMT

I think next week the record is broken. Or They wait to nobody hits this one and then slap it in everyone's face.

Comment #20

JADELottery — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:40:47 GMT

Oh My.

Jackpots are Up.

Markets are Down.

Comment #19

American Indian — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:39:32 GMT

LOL

I knew what you were talking about, can't say SOME got IT though!!!! HE HE HA HA

Comment #18

American Indian — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:36:38 GMT

ALWAYS ONE in the bunch..... at the very LEAST

Comment #17

CDanaT — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:33:49 GMT

My list doesn't include that particular aspect. It's more like

Family:

1. Definitely give($1 Million+) to

2. Give some($100K) to

3. S.O.L

I may add a category between #2 #3... call it, legal gift amt. I think it's around the $15-17K figure

Comment #16

American Indian — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:33:25 GMT

WE only need a Million, but I do think of all the great Charities I could help and the people that REALLY Need Help, We could finally make a big difference in so many lives

Comment #15

Bleudog101 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:28:09 GMT

Mea culpa, was responding to the prediction of 4.6 Billion this Friday.

Comment #14

Bleudog101 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:26:29 GMT

Yeah, maybe 3-6 months it would get that high...

Comment #13

Bleudog101 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:24:49 GMT

Hey vbrich, NJ Pick 6 nothing to sneeze at with enough to take care of your needs

Comment #12

wander73 — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:24:05 GMT

I just time to go in my topic area and do another one for tomorrow

Comment #11

BuyLow — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:23:36 GMT

Hahaha, gotcha....on my list I upped my splurge/home/cars/boat amount from 11 to 15 million on this last bump to $970,000,000.00.

Comment #10

vbrich — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:23:28 GMT

Here we go cool billion!

Good luck to everyone!!!

It will be interesting to see if one person win it all and I would love to be that one!. I already bought two lines but I might as well spurge a little, when I stop by gas station and buy one each of MM, PB and NJ Pick 6.

Three JP to dream about that can change our lives forever