Error Correction

Reply #7

lchoro — Mon, 27 Jun 2005 03:53:13 GMT

I haven't had a chance to look at the field for sometime. It's a technique in computer science algorithms called successive, or iterative, refinement which is used to solve a system of linear equations. You might have a group of equations which are used to forecast a series of lottery balls, 6 in this case. There would be a formula for each ball. The forecast for the first ball may be dependent on the history of balls that occurred before it and what the probabilities of the next ball to foll... [ More ]

Reply #6

SirMetro — Mon, 27 Jun 2005 02:46:47 GMT

There may be something to that idea. I tinkered with a program for a few hours that did something similiar to that. It measured the difference between the numbers that hit, then provided possible future hits based on the variance that occurred over the past hits. Once I get my head around the idea, I will probably do the same thing in an Excel file and then have Excel generate numbers based on an evaluation of similiar data.It looked something like the following: Original NumberStart SkipSkip S... [ More ]

Reply #5

JKING — Fri, 24 Jun 2005 12:47:09 GMT

No, I am not winning more. However, the amount of number I match has gone up dramatically. The other thing holding me back, is that I have put a self inflicted betting cap of two dollars per draw.

Reply #4

empassioned1 — Fri, 24 Jun 2005 02:51:04 GMT

And in playing those corrections, are you winning? C.K.

Reply #3

JKING — Tue, 21 Jun 2005 20:54:51 GMT

RJOh, I totally agree, error correction in your forcasting model is very important. This is something that has hardly been addessed here at the LP. I've been able to put together something at the number level, but not at the combination level..... As most of you know I use a filter approach. Invariably, 1 or more of the filters is in error to the actual draw. So what I've done is rated the numbers after filtering. By tracking the rating I've found certain values keep coming up over and over...... [ More ]

Reply #2

RJOh — Tue, 21 Jun 2005 19:21:32 GMT

On second thought one could look at the forecasting function and figure the variances of error from the start and use that in the standard deviations to correct that function accordingly after each drawings thus the forecasting function would become more accurate after each drawing. Players who track hot and cold numbers are doing something similar now, but don't use the variances of error to more accurately define their parameters. I hope this helps. If we all put our thoughts together, we w... [ More ]

Reply #1

RJOh — Tue, 21 Jun 2005 04:28:01 GMT

First one would have to establish the effect that historical jackpot values have on guessing the size of the wheel to use and then adjust the variances in the standard deviation to create an error correction routine accordingly. This all assumes that the forecasting function started out being correct and got worst over time or there would be no guide line for the error correction routine.RJOh

Error Correction

lchoro — Mon, 20 Jun 2005 15:31:39 GMT

Has there been an algorithm or software developed that looks back at the variances between the predictions that it makes for lottery picks and the historical jackpot values, and uses that lookback to adjust it future forecasts. I believe in math this lookback is referred to as an error correction function that may look at the variances and calculate the standard deviation about each guess for the jackpot value. I'm thinking of a base function or procedure that makes the... [ More ]