MM and PB jackpots

Reply #21

ryanm — Thu, 29 Sep 2005 23:02:44 GMT

That is so true. More drawings to get to a record jackpot means more chances for a player to get lucky before reaching a record high.

Reply #20

CASH Only — Thu, 29 Sep 2005 21:20:27 GMT

The timing of the current Powerball cycle is interesting. It might still be rolling over during my cross-country trip next month.

Reply #19

dvdiva — Fri, 09 Sep 2005 06:48:47 GMT

I'm wondering from an odds perspective if less sales per rollover makes it more or less likely that the jackpot will break 300. Per drawing the odds of a winner drop but it has to survive that more drawings to get there.

Reply #18

Prob988 — Fri, 09 Sep 2005 03:46:32 GMT

Here's an interesting fact: For the drawing on May 9, 2000 that produced the $363M jackpot produced sales of $195.6M for that drawing alone. (The total sales for the total run was about $565M.)At today's odds that amount of sales would have roughly a 1/3 chance of rolling over!There is no telling how many tickets might be sold in that case.The odds of there being just one winner would be slightly higher than the odds of the jackpot rolling over. The balance of probabilities is represented by... [ More ]

Reply #17

ryanm — Thu, 08 Sep 2005 17:02:22 GMT

Powerball sold only 12.9 million tickets for the $60 million jackpot! They used to sell that many at the $20 million level

Reply #16

dvdiva — Thu, 08 Sep 2005 13:37:23 GMT

Well 20% is far better than what the old odds would have a a chance at a large pot. I sometimes use Powerball sales for an example too. It was very accurate until the hurricane hit then the sales slowed down.

Reply #15

Prob988 — Thu, 08 Sep 2005 12:52:21 GMT

The best model we have is the performance of the old mega millions game which reached $294M before it was won by a player in Massachusetts back on July 2, 2004. The last several jackpots in that run seem to track what is happening here: $155M, $177M, $220M $294M parentheses showing the last three, which would need to be beat this time. Sales were $56M, $81M and $133M. The overall probablility of the last three jackpots rolling over would be, at today's odds, roughly 20%. A rollover at $295M... [ More ]

Reply #14

ryanm — Thu, 08 Sep 2005 04:38:58 GMT

If there is no winner in MM, it's only about four draws away from breaking $363 million.

Reply #13

dvdiva — Thu, 08 Sep 2005 02:19:03 GMT

I'm curious what you think the odds are of it breaking 363 miilion. Long way to go before it hits that one though.

Reply #12

Prob988 — Wed, 07 Sep 2005 12:52:44 GMT

I'd estimate that the probability of a $300M jackpot in MM, based on a current jackpot of $170 M, is somewhere between 40% to 50% now. There is no history for the current lottery set up - higher odds, declining buying strength, and the presence of California to look at, so it's speculative at best.The $294M pot won in MA a little while back sold $132.5M tickets. With the new odds, such a sales figure would generate slightly less than a 50% chance of a rollover.

Reply #11

weshar75 — Mon, 05 Sep 2005 06:24:11 GMT

The powerball rolls of late have been under 10 million I was hoping for at least the last two rolls would have been higher than 10 million. I guess with the cost of living from day to day going up their is less for the lottery tickets. Maybe the odds going up had some players set against buying lottery until it is the large jackpots that everyone likes to play for. With it taking longer to grow I wonder if that is in the favor of the player or the lottery.

Reply #10

dvdiva — Mon, 05 Sep 2005 05:13:44 GMT

The odds might have changed since this unpresidented disaster really is an unknown for sales. There might me more rollovers with less sales per rollover.

Reply #9

Prob988 — Mon, 05 Sep 2005 04:22:50 GMT

Right now, based on a current jackpot of $150,000,000, calculating from historical sales data, I'd estimate the probability of a jackpot that exceeds 300 million is roughly 1 in 4. Whether it is likely to exceed it by 63 million, I don't know. In this estimate I have estimated three rolls, one at 150 million dollars, one at around 180 million dollars and one at 220 million and one at close to 300 million. Even if the sales were $132,000,000, as they were for the last great megamillions jackp... [ More ]

Reply #8

ryanm — Sun, 04 Sep 2005 04:59:18 GMT

Powerball's annuity jackpot only jumped $7 million from 9/3 to 9/7!? Their cash value option jumped only $4 million? That's weird, because according to http://www.lottoreport.com/salescomparison.htm , the states sold over $14 million worth of Powerball tickets (not including PowerPlay) for the 9/3 drawing, and that's normal for the $53 million level, so the estimated CVO should have increased by more than $4 million.

Reply #7

JAG331 — Fri, 02 Sep 2005 16:43:42 GMT

Both will eventually make it. The odds are great!I'd rather win MM for $400m than PB...much greater cash value

Reply #6

Just6ntlc — Tue, 30 Aug 2005 19:36:59 GMT

I say both MM and PB, but I hope that no one wins jackpot in the 200-299 million range. I hope that CA is the only jackpot winner in MM that shatters the North American jackpot record of 363 million.

Reply #5

dvdiva — Mon, 29 Aug 2005 05:14:10 GMT

Well the trick is if the new matrix can survive no one winning both jackpots in the 200-299 range. I think it's possible but very unlikely. The current run needs no winners for the next six drawings to break 300. Just can't see that happening this drawing. Maybe in a year or two.

Reply #4

ryanm — Mon, 29 Aug 2005 02:33:48 GMT

Yeah, but Powerball's lucky streaks have historically ended every time they jacked up the matrix (at least it did for about a year after they jacked it up to 1 in 120 million). For some weird reason, Mega hasn't had a $300+ million run ever since they jacked up their matrix to 1 in 135 million. That will soon change though with California on board.

Reply #3

JimmySand9 — Mon, 29 Aug 2005 01:11:25 GMT

Neither. Powerball has too many lucky streaks, and Mega has too many players.

Reply #2

bigdaddy — Sun, 28 Aug 2005 23:50:07 GMT

mm i agree i hope i will be the first cali winner

Reply #1

ryanm — Sun, 28 Aug 2005 23:23:33 GMT

Yep, Mega Millions will because of California.Powerball will too because of their back-loaded annuity.

MM and PB jackpots

Just6ntlc — Sun, 28 Aug 2005 21:40:55 GMT

I say both MM and PB will eventually reach 363+ million to pass the North American lotto jackpot history. However, I say MM will get there first because PB will have too many small jackpot winners.