Is PB inferior to MM?

Reply #9

Jake649 — Wed, 28 Sep 2005 01:29:35 GMT

When calculating the expected value of the jackpot prize, the probability of a single or multiple winners must be taken into consideration. Those probabilities are affected by the odds and the sales for that particular draw.It is for that reason that the expected value rises slowly as the jackpot grows. That is, as the jackpot grows, sales also grow and increase the possibility of a multiple winner.I calculate the expected value of the lotteries I play and only play when the expected value is re... [ More ]

Reply #8

acronym007 — Wed, 28 Sep 2005 01:12:37 GMT

In some cases, as mine, this arguement is pointless as I only have the choice of PB but if I could play both I would even if not to chose between the two. I play MM online when the Jackpot goes over $100 mil. Otherwise it's a two hour drive to get MM. It's a good topic, worthy of some thought but IMHO I play any lotto I can with a cap on weekly spending. I like the possiblity of winning any one of them. CHeers,

Reply #7

weshar75 — Wed, 28 Sep 2005 00:22:00 GMT

I don't think powerball is inferior to mega millions. I like powerball because it has lower odds then mega millions, it is in my state, the lower prizes are higher if you play powerplay which I do. The jackpot might not be as high as mega millions but 73.4 million dollars is still alot of money if you only spent $4 to get it.

Reply #6

Rip Snorter — Wed, 28 Sep 2005 00:09:13 GMT

There's also the PB multiplier which has to figure in as a potential plus for PB. The combination of lower tier prizes and the multiplier, should the player use it, offers a set of possibilities far superior to MM outside Texas, even after the changing of the powerplay protocols recently.Jack

Reply #5

anonymous77 — Tue, 27 Sep 2005 23:27:33 GMT

Thank you for your interest in my interest, some LP members!The major thrust for me to happen to calculate PB MM's expected values was just my curiosity, which all of a sudden occurred in my mind while reading the LP posts talking about the lower cash value ratio of PB in compared to that of MM, and some seemingly conflicting opinions on the attractiveness of cash and annuity.First of all, income tax was the most tricky factor in calculating the corresponding expected values, largely because 1... [ More ]

Reply #4

Todd — Tue, 27 Sep 2005 17:34:06 GMT

It doesn't look like the game odds were taken into account. Seems to me that Powerball has better odds. Also, a comparison of lower-tier prizes is important (as well as odds of winning those prizes).

Reply #3

dvdiva — Tue, 27 Sep 2005 17:23:22 GMT

Well for a prize at 200 million, in PB you would get less than half. Around 93-97. In MM you would get just over 60% or 120-124 million. Not hard to figure out which one is better to win IMO. Of course for my situation I live in WA a MM state with no income tax. For me to play PB I need to drive to Oregon which has a 9% income tax that is not deductable from the federal one. So for me it's a lot less money.

Reply #2

anonymous77 — Tue, 27 Sep 2005 15:07:26 GMT

1) Sorry for not clarifying CV. Yes, I meant CV as cash value, and CVO also as cash value. (O, which I intended to mean option , needs to be ignored).2) I did NOT take income taxes, Federal or State, into consideration just because they differ depending on winner's status of US Citizenship, specific State where tickets are purchased, etc.3) Because income taxes were not taken into consideration while calculating the expected values, the NET expected values should be SMALLER by the income tax ra... [ More ]

Reply #1

Jake649 — Tue, 27 Sep 2005 13:59:51 GMT

Two questions.What is CVO? I assume CV is cash value.Are you using the after tax amount to calculate EV? If you are not, then the EV is incorrect.Good luck,Jake

Is PB inferior to MM?

anonymous77 — Tue, 27 Sep 2005 11:58:21 GMT

From players' perspective, because MM has higher cash value ratio than that of PB,MM might look more attractive than PB even when they have same amount of annuity jackpots. Can it be supported? That is, would MM be superior to PB even if two annuity jackpots are same? (Assumed one is lucky enough to buy each ticket for just $1 and applied currently available cash value ratios for MM and PB)1) (For just curiosity) At what amount of cash value, would the Expected Value(EV) be equal to $1, for each... [ More ]