Pick 3 and The Upper Extreme

Reply #25

CARBOB — Fri, 13 Oct 2006 12:09:42 GMT

Thoth,

This is my way of tracking carried digit skips. What kind of skip pct should one expect from this? I hope I'm asking the question the right way.

Bob

DIGITS CARRIED OVER

MAXHITSAVGSKIPSAVG

110862231191222722132411112652211113132122461131151118531133311116222122213262.57

8182320114111211551214332113112111251122111284123242211541161112121112143312.04

212209910642341854510214789153121010201178336142311612524281241216781475422339101266125331744666.97

326320... [ More ]

Reply #24

CARBOB — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 21:59:49 GMT

Chaz,

Today's results. A lot of the late bloomers showed today. That's a lot of years to wait for a number. Fla has 494 that's never hit 6730 draws, since 1988.

Hits From 10/09/06

CA 727 2137

CT 998 406

DC 140 108

DE 026 77

GA 639 799

ILL 461 123

IND 614 875

KY 563 13

MD 486 254

MI 737 1435 I played this for 7 days, but not today!!!!

MO 975 1078

NJ 029 1470 THE SAME AS ABOVE

NY 641 1413

OH... [ More ]

Reply #23

WIN D — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 14:35:01 GMT

Forgot to mention about the very oldest numbers ..... now those are old. Now... no number is really even late until it has at least ONE chance to hit right? So ..no number less than a thousand draws is late actually.

That number #365.... he is actually only 6.1 times due or 6.1 cycles out. Many things in this game get that old.... but...

Most things can't make it past 7 cycles in Pick 3

Win d

Please note .... I sai... [ More ]

Reply #22

WIN D — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 14:02:51 GMT

Well.... We can see these hits had some normal things going on.

For example.... 19 total hits that day....

If we do 19 x .27 = 5.3 expected doubles..... and we had actual double hits of ...4 doubles.

So.... even in the world of extremes skips.... normal day to day business is going on. LOL

That 27% ......still hangs in there doesn't it.

Another thing we should consider I guess is ... what is an extreme?? Since we are talking Midday... [ More ]

Reply #21

CARBOB — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 11:56:03 GMT

It seems the hits are coming from some very high skips.

Hits From 10/8/06

Skips

CA 650 2592

MD 101 50

MI 721 555

MO 651 3672

NJ 109 2816

NY 529 534

PA 429 1483

TS 975 1078

DC 901 1066

Reply #20

CARBOB — Sun, 08 Oct 2006 14:40:56 GMT

These are the Hits From 10/07/06.

Draw Skip

CA 390 251

DC 460 26

DE 231 730

GA 113 1875

ILL 858 144

IN 720 1318

KY 244 1244

MD 985 2247

MI 193 399

MO 653 190

NJ 127 1976

NY 176 702

OH 584 481

PA 764 965

SC 882 2464

TN 724 1713

TS 816 102

TX 168 79

VA 653 190

Reply #19

CARBOB — Sat, 07 Oct 2006 16:28:42 GMT

Chaz,

I think the most hits will come from the last 30 combos! I always wanted to test the combined mid draws.

Reply #18

WIN D — Sat, 07 Oct 2006 15:56:46 GMT

Interesting experiment.....

Compare the Top 10 of the Oldest Group ...to the bottom 10 and see which one of these groups hits first in the country.

Newest hit Group on Bottom

883 9 Dbl

973 8 6-way

399 7 Dbl

656 6 Dbl

342 5 6-way

311 4 Dbl

699 3 Dbl

679 2 6-way

579 1 6-way

435 0 6-way

Reply #17

CARBOB — Sat, 07 Oct 2006 12:03:47 GMT

Sorry, I didn't answer sooner Thoth. I count each states draw separately. Here are the numbers I have for skips in a combined database of over 6000 draws. The first column are the combos, second the skips. These are thru yesterday's mid draws.

STRAIGHT:

Longest out prior to 10/07/2006

ALLSTATESMID (M),

Number Draws out # type

705 NOTDRAWN 6-way

365 6191 6-way

804 6158 6-way

430 5979 6-way

251 5970 6-way

312 5949 6-way

133 5186 Dbl

373 4821 Dbl

064 4687 6-way

250 4396 6-wa... [ More ]

Reply #16

Thoth — Mon, 02 Oct 2006 16:28:53 GMT

The last time 705 straight was drawn as the midday number in Ohio was on 4/01/04, which is 782 consecutive midday drawings ago. I verified the draw on the Ohio Lottery web site.

Are you adding skips together? For example, if the number 705 is out in Ohio for 781 games and out in Michigan for 100 games, are you giving it a skip of 881 games

Reply #15

CARBOB — Mon, 02 Oct 2006 11:21:30 GMT

I track mid-mid, eve-eve. I show 705 out 8467 for the mid draws.

Reply #14

Thoth — Mon, 02 Oct 2006 00:09:40 GMT

I have ten or so states that i use to run tests on. I havent really ever tracked all the states at once, but I did track 5 for a while for my Penta-State System . Im not sure how you track your states or count your skips but 705 hit staight in Ohio only 231 consecutive games ago. This was the evening draw on 5-19-06.

Reply #13

Rick G — Sun, 01 Oct 2006 22:13:39 GMT

Thanks Thoth....interesting thread. I'm familiar with the 825 in IL as many members know. I noticed the skip over a year before it finally played. Had I played it every drawing during that year I would have lost over $300. Progression betting would have put me in the poorhouse.

That's why I don't play overdue situations. There's a fine line between overdue and Antarctica ice cold. 10,000 draws is a good example of that. Ten times overdue. Most people like to start playing something wh... [ More ]

Reply #12

CARBOB — Sun, 01 Oct 2006 11:26:34 GMT

Thoth, do you have any stats for allstates combined draws? I have the combo 705 listed as the most out, 8467 skips.

Thanks

Reply #11

takeitez — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 12:43:13 GMT

The people in charge of the great on line pay out of 899 to 1, know most lotto players will not have the patience to play the same exact number for 2 or 3 years and not miss a day or ever play another number.

ez

Reply #10

WIN D — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 11:26:33 GMT

Thoth quote...

There is actually a set of rules as to how the numbers will hit and actually they are very accurate. However, these rules will not tell you exactly when a particular number will be drawn. They will only tell you what the probability is over the course of a measured amount of games.

If the 026 number group you mentioned is 026 boxed or any order then 650 draws is ripe for a hit, but then again, it could make it out 800 games or more. The upper extreme for a boxed no-mat... [ More ]

Reply #9

Thoth — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 04:29:23 GMT

...sometimes they are no better than throwing chicken entrails on the floor and reading those

LOL hmm...I havent tried voodoo yet.

Reply #8

Thoth — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 17:14:16 GMT

Actually you may need the same patience for all the states Pick 3 games. The straight 825 skipping over 10,600 games in Illinois is not really such an anomolly considering it has 13,552 games to its history: the more draws a state has the more likely the improbable is to occur.

Every state with a good amount of draws behind it SHOULD or will most likely have a few numbers out past 6000 games.

Reply #7

Thoth — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 16:50:25 GMT

There is actually a set of rules as to how the numbers will hit and actually they are very accurate. However, these rules will not tell you exactly when a particular number will be drawn. They will only tell you what the probability is over the course of a measured amount of games.

If the 026 number group you mentioned is 026 boxed or any order then 650 draws is ripe for a hit, but then again, it could make it out 800 games or more. The upper extreme for a boxed no-match number is 1,913

Reply #6

Dr Lottery — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 16:40:41 GMT

what a wait

Reply #5

Thoth — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 16:36:45 GMT

Thanks Win D,

I really do need to find more time to post. I have tons of info but unfortunately I have very little time to sit down and share it on here.

Reply #4

floridian — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 13:29:43 GMT

These may be dumb questions but I am new at this (only a member since August) and not very Lotto smart yet.

Is there any rule of thumb as to how many draws one might use to establish a pattern for the way numbers hit?

Is there any rule of thumb for the way numbers hit ie, every x draws one might expect all even or all odd numbers or mixed? Or is everythning so random you pays your money you takes your chances?

I have an example of the 026 number group that has not hit in almost 650

Reply #3

floridian — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 13:12:07 GMT

Man!!

With skips like that I am going to have to figure out a way to live a lot longer, if I am going to continue to play. It sure looks like you have to have a lot of patience to play the Illinois Lottery games.

Floridian

Reply #2

Badger — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 12:31:21 GMT

Very interesting post, Thoth. Thanks.

It was one obscenely ridiculous skip . Statistics are usually all we have to go by, but sometimes they are no better than throwing chicken entrails on the floor and reading those. In the end, the longer I look at the P3 and P4, the more it seems that what combination you pick to play isn't as relevant as when you play it. Maybe what we need to understand is the exact definition of luck .

Reply #1

WIN D — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 12:17:24 GMT

Thoth..... Thank you for such great post such as this. Many would enjoy seeing more of your views and research on your Blog as well. I sure would.

It is enjoyable to read your very entertaining and interesting work....and always with great perspectives.

Pick 3 and The Upper Extreme

Thoth — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 07:16:47 GMT

In Illinois the number 825 last hit straight on 6/29/06. The last time it hit before that was exactly 10,684 consecutive games prior on 12/27/1987. As far as I know, this is the longest skip for a straight Pick 3 number anywhere on record. Most states don't even have this many games to their entire history yet. Breaking this extended skip down into other observations will show how it was at the upper extreme end of long-out probability.

Between the hits on 12/27/87 and 6/29/06 the fo... [ More ]