'System' components

Reply #8

time*treat — Sat, 04 Nov 2006 00:03:20 GMT

If you have 2 parts and each is accurate 75% of the time, then unless they have some other corelation with each other, they should agree AND be right 56.25% of the time. Flipping a coin (in this case) wouldn't change your odds that much (50% vs. 56.25

Reply #7

mchpick3! — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 23:19:35 GMT

Tenaj is right all the numbers do is travel from state to state. I have been watching it happen look at the 555's. Look at the 808. I have my day planner in hand and I am ready !!!!!! Thanks to Tenaj!!!!!! I am going to take them to the bank!!!!! I need a new pair of shoes LOL

Reply #6

Tenaj — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 23:10:37 GMT

You pay attention, record it, watch what happens, record what happened, remember it, so that when it happens again you'll have an idea what to do. Then when it happens again with a different variation (curve ball), you pay attention again. (that's for the folks who say no system works 100 percent-it's us who don't work 100 %) Then after it happens again and repeat the first variation, you have the patterns, and trend with that one thing, for the most part. Then you can take'em to the bank. A... [ More ]

Reply #5

guesser — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 23:06:12 GMT

The system has several parts that point me in a direction, two of them counter each other. It takes all parts - AND LUCK - to be a winner.

My system does not predict numbers, it does other things, and numbers fall unto themselves.

RJ you are correct.

I may skip this drawing anyway, or do something way off-the-wall, pick-wise.

Reply #4

RJOh — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 23:02:45 GMT

If you have been using a 'system' with two components for eight months and both have been accurate 75% of the time then they've been wrong 25% of time too and you should expect that.

If they have been accurate 75% of the time and you haven't won any money then being wrong this time is not going to make any difference no matter which direction you choose.

Reply #3

Bryan — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 22:02:46 GMT

Don't play on the days they disagree. It won't be to long until they agree again if they both have a high rate of success. That was one of the hardest lessons for me to learn when I started merging ideas that seem to produce.

Reply #2

Blackapple — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 21:21:12 GMT

What do you do when you have a 'System', made up of several different components that point you in a direction, and after 8 months, you have come across a problem where one part tells you do to something, but another part tells you to do something different, and both components are near-75% accurate ?

You develop or attain a

third component to compare

with the others

Choose the one that

offer more insight.

They are usually not

accurate at the same time.

Reply #1

Raven62 — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 16:25:21 GMT

Make the best guess possible with available information, and then learn from the experience when additional information becomes available.

'System' components

guesser — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 16:05:27 GMT