What is up with MM/PB

Reply #16

bitrunner — Tue, 05 Dec 2006 17:50:33 GMT

If you think of the jackpot size as a random event, just as who wins what is a random event, then you would expect the jackpot sizes to be randomly distributed and follow a bell curve distribution, just like any random distribution. Therefore, I would expect very large jackpots to represent only 2% of the jackpots, with most most of the jackpots falling around whatever the average turns out to be.

Reply #15

KY Floyd — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 17:58:29 GMT

Yes, that's based on cash value. I may have confused things with the comment about jackpots from 12 to 300 million, since those amounts reflect advertised annuity values.

Reply #14

Prob988 — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 17:51:59 GMT

I am sorry, but my post includes an error. My figure refers to all MM draws since the matrix change to the new format, and not just the figures in 2006.

It is probably true that my number is a better one to use since the sample size is larger.

Reply #13

CA LotteryGuy — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 17:28:16 GMT

Prob988....question on your comment on the length of runs thus far in 2006 fo MM. My tracking shows for 2006 there have been 15 runs, begining at the first of the year (January 3rd at 12 million). My tracking shows the average run to be 6.3. This tracking does not include the current run. I am defining a run as inculding all draws, for example the last jackpot for $40 million had 5 draws, would also could be described as a run of 5. Is this how you are calculating your numbers

Reply #12

Prob988 — Sun, 03 Dec 2006 05:30:59 GMT

In the first 4 months of 2006, MM produced 2 jackpots of more than $260M, annuity, paying $160M in cash and $149M in cash. Each of these pots took more than 2 months to build.

Statistically, these jackpots are very unlikely. The model I've developed indicates that from start of a run, it has a 51% chance of rolling 7 times.

The actual length of MM runs in 2006 thus far is 7.6, meaning the MM lottery is being won slightly less than expected.

There are bound to be big jackpots, and th... [ More ]

Reply #11

CA LotteryGuy — Sun, 03 Dec 2006 00:13:44 GMT

KY Floyd....quick question, wouldn't the average jackpot of $52 million be the cash value? That equates to about $87 million for the advertised jackpot.

BTW, a reasonable jackpot for me would be the one I win.

Reply #10

weshar75 — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 20:15:36 GMT

I was looking at the history of 2006 winners in Powerball and up till now their have been 10 winning jackpots and 11 winners because one jackpot recently was split. Out of those winning jackpots half of them exceeded the $100 million annuity. Out of the half 2 were in the $100 million range, 3 were in the $200 million range and their was 1 that was over $300 million. I think though because the jackpots happened in the first half of 2006 players tend to forget that fact. Kind of what has Powe... [ More ]

Reply #9

KY Floyd — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 20:02:22 GMT

As long as you use a reasonable definition of large jackpot we should expect plenty of them in the future with the game running just as it does now. The average size of jackpots will always be a function of the odds and the amount of each ticket that goes toward the jackpot. With odds of 175 million to one we can expect the long term results to be one winning ticket for every 175 million tickets that are sold. With 30 cents of each ticket going toward the jackpot we can expect the long term a... [ More ]

Reply #8

four4me — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 19:24:09 GMT

I agree that it's the luck of the draw any jackpot can be won at any level. the fact that the odds are astronomical are mute. it all depends on whom does or not have the winning ticket.

If in fact the most winners are with q picks it stands to reason there might be high and low pots which are won. many times when the jackpot grows it seem as though it's more about the money ball than anything else. Some of the people get 5 white balls but not the money ball on a weekly basis.

he or she who... [ More ]

Reply #7

fbird — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 19:14:36 GMT

I guess you have to ask yourself a question......do I really care if it's 12,20,40 or 200 million....just so long as I win...lol. Lets put it this way ...I if play, it is to win....not to build up the jackpot

Reply #6

Bradly_60 — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 19:05:51 GMT

Lately this has been happening quite a bit. PB will have the lead (not really but according to their annuitize structure) for the first two to three drawings but then MM starts to beat the jackpot of PB. Well maybe 2007 will be a year of big jackpots.

Brad

Reply #5

Just6ntlc — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 18:50:52 GMT

It's strange that both MM and PB won consecutive jackpots within a three day period. PB won their jackpot on Wednesday while MM won their jackpot on Friday.

Reply #4

ryanm — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 17:14:39 GMT

No, players are just getting luckier. If nobody thought they could win jackpots under $100 million, the lotteries would go out of business. After all, do you play to win, or to raise the jackpot

Reply #3

bambini — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 15:02:27 GMT

Jackpots could be smaller because the number of people playing has decreased. I know quite a few people who have just stopped playing because of the odds, and they play scratchers instead. I think they should increase the payout for getting the mega ball, from $2 to $5.

Reply #2

dvdiva — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 14:51:03 GMT

Powerball has been struggling since North Carolina joined. Mega has been struggling since it's inception as it's current game. Without a price increase or some other change I'd get used to the idea that large jackpots for either game are a thing of the past.

Eventually Euromillions will hold all 10 of the top 10 record jackpot amounts unless they add Germany or some other large country without changing the odds.

Reply #1

CASH Only — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 14:49:10 GMT

At least for today (12/2), Hot Lotto has the highest jackpot in the US. Too bad it's not near you.

What is up with MM/PB

Bradly_60 — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 14:27:37 GMT

What has been up with these games. These games have always produced big jackpots but now it seems like it doesn't roll more than a couple times. I can't remember the last time either game was at $100+ million, can you? I mean it has been months. I can't remember when the jackpots were won so many times at such small levels. I miss playing these games and getting into lottery mania when the jackpots get really high. What do you guys think?

Brad