Benford’s Law and The Lottery!

Reply #10

Thoth — Thu, 01 Feb 2007 05:31:22 GMT

Yes, the performance of the skips that start with ones are somewhat higher than what BL would suggest they should be. I think that the figures for the expected benfords values are slightly off. The formula LOG((D+1)/D) is pretty generic in a way....it's a close approximation but probably not 100% accurate. I have read several articles on BL and examined a lot of graphs that illustrate how other types of dated follows the law. The majority of the time, the ones are always higher than the 30.1... [ More ]

Reply #9

JAG331 — Wed, 31 Jan 2007 18:45:49 GMT

Thoth,

Thanks for the great analysis on Benford's Law (BL)! I believe that skips are the key to solving lottery games, putting yourself in the right spot at the right time with the right numbers.

Great work on the Ohio, Illinois, Maryland, Indiana and Florida graphs. That's amazing how closely they parallel BL.

But, I think what's more interesting is how closely they parallel each other. Skips that start with a 1 hover around 33-34% while BL states they should be closer to 30%. All... [ More ]

Reply #8

CARBOB — Thu, 04 Jan 2007 17:57:25 GMT

Thanks for posting the Fla graphs. You and JadeLottery have my mind working overtime, trying to absorb this info. Great stuff

Reply #7

Thoth — Thu, 04 Jan 2007 09:01:49 GMT

Benford's Law and Pick 3 Digit Skips

Benford's Law also applies to the skips of the 10 digits (0 through 9) in all three of the Pick 3 positions. Here are the primary skip ranges that digits can end on:

1 game later (back-to-back repeat)

10 through 19

2 games later

20 through 29

3 games later

30 through 39

4 games later

40 through 49

5 games later

50 through 59

6 games later

60 through 69

7 games later

70 through 79

8 games later

80 through 89

9 games... [ More ]

Reply #6

LAVERNE MALONEY — Thu, 04 Jan 2007 03:32:19 GMT

WOW, this is really fascinating.

You know what I did, I went to my favorite place to search, that is the Search Past Results. I input a 1 in the pick 3 games search. As of this post I was able to notice that Washington State has not had a 1 come up yet in it's draws.

I remember when lottaloot had a post about pairs that had not shown as of yet. I found that post of hers to be very beneficial.

So I would say use that search engine not only to find out what is appearing in the #s but i... [ More ]

Reply #5

Thoth — Thu, 04 Jan 2007 02:59:16 GMT

CARBOB,

Here is Floridas graph. It includes game 1 to game 6,800 (12/19/06).

All states should follow the expected results very closely.

.

Reply #4

Thoth — Wed, 03 Jan 2007 17:26:37 GMT

KY FLOYD: As far as applying it to skips I'm not going to give it much thought right now, but I expect that everything you see is likely to be just another variation on counting.

I understand what you are saying about the effects of counting and how starting with the low numbers (the ones) and working up to higher leading numbers (the nines) can create this effect.

However, the results of these tests can also be directly attributed to the laws of probability. While it can be said that... [ More ]

Reply #3

JADELottery — Wed, 03 Jan 2007 06:57:21 GMT

Very interesting point of mathematical view.

Thanks for sharing.

Reply #2

KY Floyd — Wed, 03 Jan 2007 06:02:55 GMT

This counter-intuitive result applies to a wide variety of figures

The result shouldn't be counter-intuitive to anyone who gives it much thought. Any thing that is counted, whether it's how many dollars you owe for your electricity, how many miles make up a river, or how many houses are on a street is going to have more low numbers than high numbers because we start with the low numbers when we count. Anything we count has at least one 1, but won't necessarily have any higher numbers. That's... [ More ]

Reply #1

CARBOB — Tue, 02 Jan 2007 23:02:31 GMT

By any chance, did you test Fla? Thanks for an interesting post. Please continue on.

Benford’s Law and The Lottery!

Thoth — Tue, 02 Jan 2007 07:23:32 GMT

Benford s Law and The Lottery

Benford's law, also called the first-digit law, states that in lists of numbers from many real-life sources of data, the leading digit is 1 almost one-third of the time, and larger numbers occur as the leading digit with less and less frequency as they grow in magnitude, to the point that 9 is the first digit less than one time in twenty. This counter-intuitive result applies to a wide variety of figures, including electricity bills, street addresses, stock... [ More ]