Probabilty of Someone Winning a PB & MM Jackpot in the same Week!

Reply #63

Stack47 — Tue, 06 Mar 2007 06:57:28 GMT

I was more or less giving an example that pre-draw I had 46 chances to hit the jackpot. The after-draw reality is that I only had 1 chance of hitting the jackpot.

While the lines are not long, there is a steady stream of people buying tickets so Jackpot fever has hit Ohio.

Reply #62

fast eddie — Tue, 06 Mar 2007 02:31:23 GMT

As Han Solo once said Never tell me the odds

Reply #61

Coin Toss — Tue, 06 Mar 2007 02:12:17 GMT

Stack47

If I buy 46 tickets and each ticket has a different mega ball number, I can express the odds of winning the jackpot as 46:175,711,536 or 1:3,819,816 and to prove it, I'll use 1-2-3-4-5 on every ticket.

Actually what you have is one ticket that will win at least $2 since you have all the Mega Ball numnbers covered. What else you have is 46 tickets, each one up against the 175,711,536 to 1 odds.

There is quite a mixture of people on this board, and when the newer players see th... [ More ]

Reply #60

Stack47 — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 19:58:19 GMT

No matter how many tickets are played only one combination can win, and of 175,711,536 combinations only one can be drawn.

But Coin....

People are saying if I buy 2 tickets I'm cutting the odds in half and buying 10 tickets will reduce the odds to 17.5 million to 1. So I took their advice and bought 10 tickets but when I got home, read the Mega Millions website and looked at my tickets; I think I got ripped off!!!

When I looked at my 10 tickets, I noticed I had 10 different mega ball n... [ More ]

Reply #59

justxploring — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 17:10:35 GMT

No, True Critic, although you are correct when using that formula. I was just showing KY Floyd that his theory about every time you buy another ticket you cut the odds in half isn't valid. However, I see your point, because I've seen this many times on math boards. JAG said a few posts back that this isn't getting anywhere, and I agree. The reason isn't because one of us is right or one of us is wrong, but that in a game where the odds are over a 100 million to one, buying 2 or 10 or even... [ More ]

Reply #58

KY Floyd — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 16:49:33 GMT

Each indivicual ticket (ticket meaning one line of numbers, $1) is up against the same odds of 175,711, 536 to 1.

Yup. That's true, and I like that you felt the need to emhasize each individual ticket but don't understand the significance of it.

in a world of 175,000,000 + 100 is still infintesimal.

Yup. That's true also.

No one is going to say, I can't believe I didn't pick a colored grain of sand since my chances doubled.

Yup. You got that one right, to.

It doesn... [ More ]

Reply #57

KY Floyd — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 16:44:26 GMT

One of the things I think we all agree on is that the terminology can get confusing. Odds are just one way of describing your chances, just like quarts is one way of describing how many pints you have. The odds are the same as chances at the same time that they aren't. For pick 3 the odds are 1 to 999, and the chances of winning are 1 in 1000. You have 1 quart of milk, and I have 2 pints. Different numbers telling the same story.

Using your pick-4 example with odds of 1 in 10,000 (those ar... [ More ]

Reply #56

JAG331 — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 16:18:43 GMT

Yes, that would be fantastic!

But you would create so much attention, and have so many critics and conspiracy theories and state and federal investigations....if I were in that position, I think I would almost give the smaller jackpot ticket anonymously to a complete stranger.

Reply #55

mylollipop — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 15:52:30 GMT

Let them laugh, the winner of the MM and PB in the same week said as the monies were invested quite nicely in that special place for those who DARE to Dream. How sweet it is

Reply #54

JAG331 — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 15:38:06 GMT

Coin Toss,

No one on this side is disputing your point. Each individual ticket is up against the same odds. We are all in agreement.

Maybe a better way for us to phrase the cutting odds conundrum is: the second ticket, in conjunction with the first, cuts the odds by 1/2. The third ticket, in conjunction with the second and first, cuts the remaining odds by 1/3. The 567th ticket, in conjunction with the previous 566 tickets, cuts the remaining odds by 1/567th.

Reply #53

Coin Toss — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 15:29:42 GMT

It doesn't work like that.

Each indivicual ticket (ticket meaning one line of numbers, $1) is up against the same odds of 175,711, 536 to 1.

What's really intersting here is that the people saying the second ticket cuts the odds in half seem to be stopping there. When we take it to the point like justxploring did, of $14 reducing pick 4 odds down to being too tempting to pass up for the player, it's Oh no, that's not it.

No matter how many tickets are played only one combination can... [ More ]

Reply #52

twisted — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 14:47:48 GMT

The other combinations are not just disappearing into thin air. When we say buying 2 tickets will give you 1 in 87,855,768 odds of winning, it doesnt mean the other 87,855,768 combinations just disappeared. Think of it this way, if you buy two tickets, split the total combinations in half, then you will have one ticket give you odds of 1 in 87,855,768 of winning and the other ticket will give you another 1 in 87,855,768 odds of winning. So all the combinations are there, just the combinations... [ More ]

Reply #51

JAG331 — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 14:20:54 GMT

I don't think that anyone is arguing that a second or third or tenth ticket is going to guarantee a jackpot win. Of course it's still highly unlikely. If every single human on Earth were to buy one ticket for this Mega Millions drawing there would only be around 3 dozen jackpot winners.

That's a weird point. Because....36 people would win the jackpot...that seems like a lot. I think it's tough to grasp how many people live on this planet! Yet you would not personally know any of the winn... [ More ]

Reply #50

JAG331 — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 14:12:53 GMT

Yes truecritic that's it! Each extra ticket reduces the odds by a known percentage. The formula for percent decrease is [(new - old)/old]. Using your example:

The second ticket reduces the remaining odds by 1/2. (5,000 - 10,000)/10,000 = -1/2

The third ticket reduces the remaining odds by 1/3. (3,333-5,000)/5,000 = -1/3

The fourth ticket reduces the remaining odds by 1/4. (2,500-3,333)/3,333 = -1/4

See a pattern? :0)

Of course you're going to have better odds on four dist... [ More ]

Reply #49

truecritic — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 11:04:38 GMT

quote justx

Using your pick-4 example with odds of 1 in 10,000 (those are the odds for the Florida Play-4 game for a straight) then according to your theory, buying 2 tickets would make the odds 1 in 5,000 (half) and 3 would make the odds 1 in 2,500 and 4 would make them 1 in 1,250 and 5 would be 1 in 625 and 6 would be 1 in 312 and 7 would be 1 in 156 and 8 would be 1 in 78 and 9 would be 1 in 39 and 10 would be 1 in 19 and 11 would be 1 in 10 and 12 would be 1 in 5 and 13 would be 1 in 2.5

Reply #48

Coin Toss — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 07:27:25 GMT

Yeah, it's so easy to just keep reducing things by half is amazing more people don;t hit. How can the Pick 4 keep making money like this? All you need is $14.

I'm going to call it a night. Think tonight I'll go to bed one hour earlier, in order to get twice as much sleep

Reply #47

justxploring — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 07:19:29 GMT

KY Floyd, this is interesting. First everyone is telling me that chances aren't the same as odds. Actually, I agree on that to a point, but now you are using the above as an example to prove that the odds are cut in half if you purchase 2 tickets.

Yes, if you have 2 people standing outside during an electrical storm there's a greater chance that someone will get hit than if nobody is outside at all. I mean, if nobody is outside then it won't happen at all. Buying 2 tickets does give you t... [ More ]

Reply #46

Coin Toss — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 07:12:26 GMT

KY Floyd

The following Saturday two yards have somebody standing in them. Isn't it twice as likely that the lightning will hit one of the yards with somebody in it?

Twice as likely in a world of 140,000,000 to one is a wee bit optimistic. Actually, when the second person stands in their yard what has happened is the chances of lightning hitting an occupied yard have only been reduced by 1/1400,000,000.

We started out with no one in a yard. the first occupied yard becomes 1 occupie... [ More ]

Reply #45

KY Floyd — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 06:52:01 GMT

Another decent analogy, but your reasoning is faulty because, the lightning will strike. The question is will it strike a yard with somebody standing in it?

Imagine there are 140 million yards. Some of the yards have a person standing in them and some don't. The yards are all the same size and they all have the same chance of being hit by lightning. There's a storm every Wednesday and Saturday night, and lightning always hits 1 of the 140 million yards. Does it make sense that the chances of... [ More ]

Reply #44

justxploring — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 06:42:05 GMT

If you buy one ticket with an odd number and one ticket with an even number each ticket is gambling on only half of the possible combinations.

Why? If you buy 2 tickets, no matter what numbers you select to play, they are each betting on all 10,000 of the combinations.

Reply #43

KY Floyd — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 06:21:51 GMT

I'll get to some of your other stuff later, but I think you might have given yourself a really good clue here.

Saying 2 tickets changes the odds of a 1 in 140 million odd game to 1 in 70 million is assuming that each ticket is only gambling on 1/2 of the combinations.

Let's look at what you just said and apply it to pick 4. There are 10,000 possible outcomes, so the game odds are 1 in 10,000. Half of the 10,000 possible outcomes are odd and half are even. If you buy one ticket with an od... [ More ]

Reply #42

Coin Toss — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 05:12:43 GMT

Oh, the same place a lot of these go I guess. A few of us try to convince others that each line of numbers is but one combination up against over 176,000,000 possible combinations and that's all there is to it.

But they insist one more combination they play is going to reduce those combinations by 85,000,000 all at once, not just by one more.

Then the lottery commission lurkers and guests that monitor this board poke thier co-workers and go, Told ya. Poor bastards, poor dumb bastards.... [ More ]

Reply #41

JAG331 — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 04:06:11 GMT

Amusing story, Coin Toss.

Too bad it only happens like that in the land of make-believe. Let me guess, he walked right out of the story and into a college math department where the professors explained to him that odds equals total combos divided by distinct tickets purchased, no more, no less.

Where is this thread headed anyway? Yeesh.

Reply #40

Coin Toss — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 04:02:01 GMT

Once upon a time there was a lottery player named Henry Halves the Odds. We'll just call him Henry.

The Mega Millions jackpot was up so Henry went to play a ticket. He deicded on a quick pick this time and heade for a lotto outlet.

<insert Twilight Zone music here>.

This was a very unique lottery outlet, and behind the counter where the clerk ran your tickets was a board with 175,711,536 lights on it.

Henry asked the clerk what was with all the lights, and the clerk explained that... [ More ]

Reply #39

pumpi76 — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 02:16:19 GMT

I've seen lotto websites (with an s ) say that if you buy 2 tickets the odds are reduced in half..Can't find the lotto websites right now but i've seen them...

MOre important than winning the state's lotteries is the movie Red Planet ....

Reply #38

Coin Toss — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 00:25:21 GMT

Percentages are not odds. Percentage, known in the gambling business as the per , is the house pc on any given game or bet.

The lowest possible pc the player can go up against is a full odds bet on the Pass or Don't Pass on a crap table (or Come and Don't Come bet odds) - these are the only bets in the entire universe of legal gambling that pay true odds - and people still get slaughtered making these bets, but I digress...

On the game of roulette, except for a couple of bets, the house... [ More ]

Reply #37

JAG331 — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 23:35:00 GMT

Here's the formula for what percentage each additional ticket (beyond the first) reduces the odds:

Nx = x-1

N stands for the sequence of tickets. X stands for the particular ticket purchased.

Here is the second ticket in action:

N2 = 2-1 = 1/2

Odds are reduced by one half when you buy the second ticket.

N21 = 21-1 = 1/21

Odds are reduced by one twenty-first when you buy the twenty-first ticket, instead of buying only twenty.

Here's the supp... [ More ]

Reply #36

JAG331 — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 23:13:44 GMT

Well, I don't have a degree in probabilities....but that's an interesting point.

Do you think that people who play the probabilities are more conservative with their money? Or rely less on gut feel or intuition and more on what cards have played (using blackjack as an example

Reply #35

twisted — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 22:27:41 GMT

I think JAG might be right. This is not going anywhere. But what I've said so far doesnt agree with what you've said justxploring. What I've said so far proves that when you buy 2 tickets the odds are 1 in 87,855,769. If you buy 3 the odds are 1 in 58,570,513. As you keep on adding 1 more ticket the odds decrease by a smaller number. If someone was to buy 1,000,000 different combinations, the odds will be approximately 1 in 176 (175,711,536 divided by 1,000,000).

Sure if you by 2 ticket... [ More ]

Reply #34

justxploring — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 22:09:35 GMT

But lets say 70M people buy one ticket, each with a different combination, then the odds of the lottery being(or someone winning) hit is 1 in 2 or 50%.

Twisted - you are correct! But you are also agreeing with me, but don't seem to realize it. Yes, buying 70 million tickets is the same as reducing the odds by 50%, which is exactly what I wrote. So why are you saying I'm wrong and confused?

Don't worry about being articulate. I think you write very well. I'm just not sure you ar... [ More ]

Reply #33

twisted — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 21:12:44 GMT

Lets take your example of 1 in 140M. Sure when everytime a person buys another ticket, the POSSIBILITY (Not odds) of winning is increased by 1 for that player. But lets say 70M people buy one ticket, each with a different combination, then the odds of the lottery being(or someone winning) hit is 1 in 2 or 50%. ODDS are different then POSSIBILITES. I think thats whats confusing you. I dont know how better to explain it. I'm not a very articulate person.

Reply #32

twisted — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 21:02:37 GMT

I'm only saying what KYfloyd and John said but a little differently. The odds are listed as 1 in 175,711,536. If you buy 2 tickets, the odds are 2 in 175,711,536. But the odds are always listed as 1 in something. So what would 2 in 175,711,536 be in terms of 1 in ???. Its the same as 1 in 87,855,768. If someone buys $87,855,768 worth of tickets while making sure they are all different combinations, their odds are 87,855,768 in 175,711,536. But what is that in terms of 1 in ???. Its 1 in... [ More ]

Reply #31

justxploring — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 20:38:04 GMT

Yes, you make sense. But you are proving my point. You can't possibly be cutting the odds in half by buying 2 tickets for MM. Seriously, once I had a discussion about grammar with a boss when I refused to type a letter the wrong way. I faxed it to Harvard (this is a true story) and it was presented to the English Literature department. I got a response, which was very surprising. I was correct. So maybe I'll send a letter to M.I.T.

In this case I am not 100% sure I am correct. However... [ More ]

Reply #30

twisted — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 20:26:47 GMT

If someone buys $87,855,768 (half of the combinations) worth of Mega Millions tickets, while making sure they all have different combinations, their odds of winning are brought down to 1 in 2 (87,855,768 in 175,711,536) or they have a 50% (87,855,768 divided by 175,711,536) chance of winning. If they still dont have the winning combination, they would loose A LOT of money.

Ofcourse this is only a hypothetical situation. No one person will ever buy $87,855,768 of tickets. They probably co... [ More ]

Reply #29

twisted — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 20:02:33 GMT

John and KYFloyd are right. But there is just too much confusion.

John sums it up pretty well.

The possible confusion here is with possibilities (and odds) vs. probabilities - they're two different ball games.

Lets see if I can take a stab at explaining this. Lets say for example I buy the combination 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 with every possible Mega Ball (46 in total). The odds of matching 5 of 5 are 3,904,700.80 (not the same as how many different combinations). The number of different c... [ More ]

Reply #28

Coin Toss — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 19:05:51 GMT

JAG331

I had twenty years of casino work and most of the old time bosses said they'd rather have someone who just got a degree in probabilities buy in on one of their games than any other player.

Reply #27

justxploring — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 19:03:23 GMT

Not really, but I do agree we'll never agree this way. Saying 2 tickets changes the odds of a 1 in 140 million odd game to 1 in 70 million is assuming that each ticket is only gambling on 1/2 of the combinations. But when you have 2 tickets that are betting on all 140 million combinations, the odds are NOT cut in half. Sure, I agree if you had 2 separate games where there were 70 million possibilities (and this also applies to games with lesser odds) then buying a ticket for each game would p... [ More ]

Reply #26

JAG331 — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 18:49:03 GMT

justxploring,

Let's revisit your 100 combo game, since it seems to be an easy example.

The key is that odds are ratios are fractions. They are all the same.

You can reduce a fraction. 30/90 is the same as 9/27 is the same as 1/3. Therefore you can also reduce odds.

If you buy 5 tickets for your game, you can express the odds of winning as 5 in 100. Or 5/100...it's a fraction. You can reduce this to 1/20. It's perfectly valid to say that the odds are 1 in 20 of winning on five d... [ More ]

Reply #25

JAG331 — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 18:42:33 GMT

The uncle and niece will never be the same age, but the proportion will continually get smaller, closer to one.

40/10 is greater than 60/30 is greater than 100/70. Even when the uncle is 1,000 years old and the niece is 970, the uncle will still be older, but the proportion of 1000 to 970 is much smaller than 40 to 10.

Reply #24

JAG331 — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 18:36:40 GMT

This thread looks like it's going nowhere.

But I'm going to have to weigh in with KY Floyd and johnph77.

We are phrasing the question in terms of odds. The other side phrases it in terms of probabilities. Two different concepts that require different calculations.

Reply #23

Coin Toss — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 18:35:10 GMT

Ky Floyd

I guess I can, and for me it doesn't seem hard to understand.

Of course, it doesnt, for you, because after all you've seen mathematical proof that the uncle and his niece will one day be the same age.

No offense Floyd, but when anybody tells me lottery odds are not based on possivble combinations, that's all they've got to tell me about the lottery.

And I'll try to get away from that person before they start telling their stories about the wonderful time they ha... [ More ]

Reply #22

justxploring — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 17:42:42 GMT

Buying a second ticket cuts your odds in half because it doubles the number of tickets, and therefore the number of chances you have to win. You started with 1 ticket and you now have 2. 2 is twice as much as 1. Because it doubles the number of tickets you had the first additional ticket cuts your odds in half.

KY Floyd, I give up! Seriously, next time you are near a college, go into the math dept and ask one of the professors to read these posts. (Make sure it's an accredited college... [ More ]

Reply #21

KY Floyd — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 08:01:11 GMT

The math and the logic are both very easy, but you're starting off with at least one major mistake, and logic only works if your premises are valid. Doubling your chances of winning and halving your chances of losing are not the same thing. If I had the vaguest idea of why it isn't fundamentally obvious to some people that doubling the number of tickets doubles the chances it might be easier to explain, but I really don't know what make it difficult for some people.

When the odds are 1 in 7... [ More ]

Reply #20

KY Floyd — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 07:47:03 GMT

When I say that it's 2nd grade math I'm not being facetious. It really is simple, and I'm not sure what your block is that you can't understand something that really is simple.

There may be some morons who think it works the way you describe, but as far as I know nobody here has ever suggested that the odds are cut in half for each ticket played or that there's a geometric progression like the one you describe. The claim that is made by those of us who do understand how it works is that b... [ More ]

Reply #19

justxploring — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 06:26:07 GMT

Reply #18

Coin Toss — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 06:03:01 GMT

John has it exactly right, assuming one ticket for each drawing. The fact that a bunch of posters here don't understand the math doesn't change the facts. Having two tickets makes you twice as likely to win,

Oh, the math is understood. But by some it's understood like the old Abbot and Costello routine where a 40 year old uncle has a 10 year old niece, so he's 4 times as old as she is.

Five years go by, now he's 45 and she's 15, so he's only three times as old as she is!

Another fiv... [ More ]

Reply #17

justxploring — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 04:01:17 GMT

The odds of winning if one buys two tickets are cut in half. Whether those two tickets are purchased for the same or different drawings makes no difference, the odds are cut in half. Just as the odds are the odds, the mathematics are the mathematics. As was pointed out, 2::10,000,000 is the same as 1::5,000,000. That's math. Johnph77

Well, I don't want to keep getting into long discussions about this, but I'll try one more time. Thanks, Coin Toss. I'm glad someone here is paying attent... [ More ]

Reply #16

Coin Toss — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 20:42:24 GMT

And even if you had that one missing combination, too, that couldn't guarantee a win becayse you can never assume a solo winner.

You're kind of contradicting your statement about cutting the odds in half with this post.

Cheers.

Reply #15

johnph77 — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 19:49:39 GMT

Coin Toss -

The only way one can guarantee a win in any lottery is to buy enough tickets to cover every possible draw. Leave one combination out and all bets are off.

gl

j

Reply #14

four4me — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 17:13:00 GMT

There is some person walking around with this huge horseshoe up his _____ that just might be the one to do it.

Reply #13

Coin Toss — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 17:07:47 GMT

johnph77

The odds of winning if one buys two tickets are cut in half.

NOPE, they are not. Here's the flaw in this. Let's say there's a game with the odds of one million to one.

Lottery odds are based on the possible number of combinations.

So you guys with the odds are cut in half with each ticklet are saying this:

first ticket one in one million

second ticket (same game) one in 500,000

third ticket: 1 in 250,000

fourth ticket: 1 in 125,000

fifth ticket: 1 in 62,... [ More ]

Reply #12

jarasan — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 12:51:45 GMT

Sorry I meant the 175,711,536.

Also, it is semantics not somatics, too many pixels. I was essentially backing your posts' point.

LOL jarasan

Reply #11

johnph77 — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 11:56:56 GMT

The odds of winning if one buys two tickets are cut in half. Whether those two tickets are purchased for the same or different drawings makes no difference, the odds are cut in half. Just as the odds are the odds, the mathematics are the mathematics. As was pointed out, 2::10,000,000 is the same as 1::5,000,000. That's math.

The possible confusion here is with possibilities (and odds) vs. probabilities - they're two different ball games. Let's take a 1/10 lottery matrix, for example - draw 1... [ More ]

Reply #10

Coin Toss — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 07:36:43 GMT

jarasan

.......so his chances of hitting are roughly 400/175M=2.2857142857142857142857142857143 e-6% = .0000022857% chance of hitting the field of possible outcomes........

P.S. numbers rounded off.

LOL jarasan

Reply #9

jarasan — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 01:40:29 GMT

It is matter of somatics, or point of view, each ticket by itself is a possible outcome of the current draw, he has 400 tickets, each has one of the possible outcomes, the odds for each ticket doesn't change. He posseses 400 of the 175M possible outcomes (the 175M possible outcomes never change) in the game. The game contains 175M possible outcomes that are independent of who plays the game. He posseses 400 of the possble outcomes, that means there are 175,000,000 - 400 outcomes that he DO... [ More ]

Reply #8

Coin Toss — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 00:51:12 GMT

Floyd

You're showing that I was right about people giving the lottery critics ammo.

400 tickets as oppossed to 1 ticket only reduces things by .00000022.

Let's see, tenths, hunderedths, thousandths, hundred-thousandths, millioniths, - well, that's six places right of the decimal, with two to go. You can do the rest.

Reply #7

Shane3 — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 21:35:44 GMT

Actually it can be done..........I am 90% close to finding the holy grail of the 2nd prize and the grand prize. When I get to 95% I will test it out on both and you will know it if you see a DC and a Maryland second or grandprize winner that same week. I have paid my dues this last year.......and now it is time to collect.

Reply #6

KY Floyd — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 19:13:15 GMT

Buying 400 tickets makes the guy 400 times as likely to win as somebody who buys 1 ticket. With 400 tickets the probability of him winning is now 400 in 175,711,536, instead of 1 in 175,711,536. Simplifying the ratio, it's 1 in 439,278.84. He's 400 times as likey to win, but his odds are still very slim, and he should expect to win only once every 439,278.84 drawings, assuming he always buys 400 tickets.

Once again, you're showing that you don't understand the math at all.... [ More ]

Reply #5

KY Floyd — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 19:06:22 GMT

John has it exactly right, assuming one ticket for each drawing. The fact that a bunch of posters here don't understand the math doesn't change the facts. Having two tickets makes you twice as likely to win, whether it's two tickets for one drawing or one ticket for each of two drawings. The chances of two events happening is the probability of one event time the probabilty of the second event, so the chances of winning PB and MM when you buy one ticket for each of two drawings ineach game is... [ More ]

Reply #4

Coin Toss — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 17:41:24 GMT

A few days ago a thread went up about somebody winning $500 on a scratcher and buying 400 Mega millions tickets for the last drawing.

According to the cut the odds in half school of thought, that person would have had to have won. THEY DIDN'T.

The odds are the same for every one combination of numbers and for every drawing.

According to your odds of winning in two drawings above, a lot of us must be overdue to hit the jackpot as it is the 400th or 500th drawing or more for us.... [ More ]

Reply #3

spy153 — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 17:30:55 GMT

Stupid crazy is right. What makes you say such a thing?

We can dream anyway, right

Reply #2

justxploring — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 17:27:59 GMT

Totally disagree, John. Why do you think the odds would be cut in half? That would mean that everyone will eventually win if they just keep playing!

The odds are the odds are the odds are the odds. They don't change just because there is one drawing, two drawings or 10 drawings. This is the same logic people use when they assume buying 2 tickets changes the odds. It does very slightly, but not by 50%. If the odds are 1 in 10 million, 2 tickets makes the odds 2 in 10 million, not 1 in 5... [ More ]

Reply #1

johnph77 — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 17:20:26 GMT

Odds of winning PB each drawing - 1::146,107,962.

Odds of winning PB in two drawings - 1::73,053,981.

Odds of winning MM each drawing - 1::175,711,536.

Odds of winning MM in two drawings - 1::87,855,768.

Odds of winning both in two drawings - 1::6,418,213,606,212,408.

gl

j

Probabilty of Someone Winning a PB & MM Jackpot in the same Week!

delS — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 13:35:51 GMT

Prob988 what is the probabilty of someone winning a PB MM Jackpot in the same week. The odds of hitting one jackpot is crazy odds, but two in one week.? Thats stupid crazy.